HyperChange

hyperchange

new wave financial media

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This is a documentary/vlog about my roadtrip to Oregon to meet John Orion Young, the founder of JOYWorld and first artist to put 3D art on the blockchain in 2018. Since then, John has been building JOYWorld, a world inside of the metaverse, that is like a painting you can walk into, and own a piece of, all built on the Ethereum blockchain. He has now created 130 original JOYs (original 3D NFTs), and released a collection of 9 JOYToys, with lots more coming. Now his digital art pieces/NFTs go for $100,000s, and have become an iconic symbol for early web 3.0 entrepreneurship. Huge shoutout to JOY for letting me film this!!

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Dec 2

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SpaceX's Starlink continues to make rapid progress. They company has just launched a new, smaller, lighter V3 satellite dish, surpassed the 140,000 user milestone, begun installing dishes at Tesla Supercharger locations, and setting up for a big India expansion next year. When do you think Starlink will hit 1M users??

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Nov 19

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President Biden and the US government refuses to acknowledge Tesla for leading the electric revolution, and instead praises companies like GM because of their support of unions, and campaign donations. This blatant disregard for the truth is a national embarrassment. In my opinion, Elon Musk and Tesla are two of our greatest national treasures. Objectively the #1 selling EV company in the country and world, and singlehandedly sparking the revolution to get us off fossil fuels. GM and Mary Barra are should not be praised for accelerating the transition to EVs, they should be blamed for delaying it. I won't be getting political again. Please be nice to me in the comments, just had to get this off my chest :)

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Nov 18

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The day has arrived! Rivian's IPO priced at $78, and has exploded in its first day of trading to $100+, putting the valuation over $100B, for a startup that has barely delivered any vehicles! Crazy! we're Going live to talk about the valuation and what's next for Rivian stock.

Nov 10

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Rumor has it Starlink is planning to IPO in about 12 months, for a target valuation of $70-80B. The most recent subscriber update from Elon Musk in late August said Starlink had ~100,000 users ($119M revenue run-rate). My projection is for them to hit 1,000,000 users by the end of 2022, scaling to over a $1B revenue run-rate. Also it looks like Starlink is developing a next generation satellite dish/terminal, that is designed for cheaper shipping, improved performance, and mass production. Would you buy Starlink at $70-$80B when it IPOs?

Nov 4

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Going live to talk about Tesla's valuation surging to well over $1T (almost $1.5T on a fully-diluted basis), and how I'm thinking about valuing the company. Also discussing if/when I'll start selling my shares.

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Nov 1

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Keynote presentation filmed in Seattle, for HyperGuap members. Updating the world on our first year disrupting VC, with 800+ members, 6 deals, and $17.7M+ invested. We are just getting started! Invest in the future you believe in :)

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Oct 27

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Tesla hits new all-time highs of more than $1,000 per share, and breaks the legendary $1T market cap barrier, we gotta celebrate!!

Oct 25

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Analyzing Tesla's Q3 2021 Earnings call. Going through the highlights about 4680 production, the $25K car, production capacity, the Cybertruck and Tesla insurance.

Oct 20

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Exclusive footage from the Tesla Berlin factory showing the 'Easter Egg' of a slightly uncovered Crimson Model Y coming from the new paint shop. This new 3D/Flop paint technology will have Tesla launching crazy new colors, and could be a nice surprise for Gigafactory Berlin orders.

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Oct 19

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Going live to discuss my bullish thesis on Coinbase stock and why I think the company could be worth $1T in the long-term, and has significant potential to reinven the global financial system. I bought some shares today (sold my Square stock). Going live to document the journey and explain my thinking. Remember, nothing in this show is financial advice.

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Oct 18

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Rivian has released its S-1 filing in preparation for one of the biggest IPOs of the year. I go step by step through the highlights of the filing to analyze Rivian's financials, business, valuation, and what I think will happen after the IPO. Overall, I think Rivian is a cool startup with a lot of potential but absurdly overvalued at $80B, and worth more like $5-10B at most. I'can't wait to see what happens when it starts trading.

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Oct 8

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I recently made (by far) my largest investment ever, into SpaceX. In this video I explain how I got the opportunity to invest, and my thought process behind pulling the trigger on this deal. I had to go into debt which I really don't recommend, and make the decision on the spot .. but investing in SpaceX was a dream come true, and I had to go for it. I also explain my though process behind SpaceX's valuation, how to value the company, and the potential of a Starlink IPO.

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Oct 5

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If Tesla can sell 10M cars in 2030 at $35K, with a 40% ROIC, a 40X multiple on that would be $2.8T. Discounted back at 8%, Mayur comes up with a fair value of $1,167 per share for Tesla's vehicle business. Tesla already has a 23% ROIC today, despite numerous growth tailwinds. This puts them far above auto industry norms, and validates the companies valuation as a technology play/disrupter. Even at Mayur's $2.8T valuation, he is assuming minimal robotaxi revenue, and nothing from energy or Tesla Bots ... imagine if any of those moonshots work.

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Sep 29

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nterview with Anastasi in Tech about Tesla's AI Day, and ambitious new Dojo supercomputer project. We discuss why Tesla brought chip production in house, how the Dojo D1 chip compares to Nvidia, and Google's TPU, and the strategy behind it. Also how Tesla's FSD/Tesla Vision tech will translate into building a humanoid robot, the Teslabot. Thanks to Anastasi for coming on the show, follow her channel for more awesome Tesla Dojo/chip content

Sep 27

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Deep dive on what is priced in to Tesla's current ~$850B fully-diluted valuation, featuring special guest Mayur Thacker. Starting with Tesla's financials today ($48B revenue & $5.2B EBIT run-rate) and going through the ROIC numbers compared to other automakers and big tech. We try and determine how much robotaxi business or revenue is priced into Tesla stock. Let us know what you think in the comments below! Was Elon right? Is the market giving Tesla a lot of credit for Robotaxi's already?

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Sep 22

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Having a beer and gossiping about Rivian's planned ~$80B IPO. Does the valuation make sense? What is priced in? What about the Rivian rally car, Amazon Delivery Van and their autonomous strategy? Will they be able to compete with the Cybertruck? Let me know what you think!!

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Sep 20

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NFTs on are taking off as a new asset class. Investable art, video games, event tickets, VR worlds, the potential is limitless for what can be created on the Ethereum blockchain as an NFT. In this episode I explain my philosophy for which NFTs I buy & how I pick a good project/artist to support. Shoutout to JOYWorld & VeeFriends!!

Sep 14

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Starlink is reportedly getting ready to rollout a new version of its 'satellite dish' which will be more rectangular. This new V3 terminal will be much cheaper to ship, and is designed for automated mass production (at profitable margins). It's performance is reportedly improved as well. SpaceX has detailed plans to begin launching Gen2 satellites, eventually with Starship. Boosting its capacity for launch from 60 satellites to 400. Elon Musk has confirmed that more than 100K Starlink Terminals have been shipped, by my estimates this puts the company's recurring revenue run-rate at $119M+!

Sep 7

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Tesla's new humanoid robot, the Tesla Bot, Optimus, represents a massive new growth opportunity for the company. We are on the cusp of automating many boring, dangerous and repetitive tasks in society, thanks to emerging technologies like this. As Tesla begins to ramp development efforts on its Robotics/AI division, I think this new growth opportunity should be slowly priced into the stock (as the execution progresses). If Tesla sold 100,000 humanoid robots in 2030 that could be $25B in revenue .. 1M robots = $250B ... you get the point. If this works, there are millions of robots to sell, and huge amounts of profit/cashflow to be made. This also ensures we have a safe/benevolent robot future .. as its built by Elon Musk/Tesla instead of an evil billionaire like Jeff Bezos.

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Sep 5

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Ethereum is the world's 2nd most valuable cryptocurrency, with a network value of $442B. Et has recently been outperforming Bitcoin, and gaining major real world traction. From Cryptopunks taking off with Visa, Odell Beckham Jr and Jay Z .. to VeeFriends by Garyvee, to JOY's JOYWorld ... we are in the early innings of the metaverse being created and it is epic!

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Sep 2

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Panel discussion with James Wang, Naveen Rao & Dylan Patel about Tesla's AI Day, Dojo chip ambitions and robotaxis. We start with an overview of neural nets, and Tesla's FSD program/approach vs other self-driving startups, then go into a deep discussion about Tesla's in-house Dojo chip program, and how it stacks up vs the industry leaders. Ending the discussion with Tesla Bots and Robotaxi predictions of course! Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!!

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Aug 30

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Update from Kato Road; Tesla is making huge progress on its 4680 battery cell line. Minor delays in turning the cathode powder into a sheet, mean that the Model Y in Berlin & Austin will launch with the 2170, before switching to the 4680. This is probably also the reason the Cybertruck won't begin deliveries until ~Q3 2022. Let me know what you've been hearing in the comments below! Overall I think this is good news, Tesla is 6-12 months from producing the 4680 at scale.

Aug 27

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The moonshot rumor was true, Tesla is building a humanoid robot (Tesla Bot), and unveiled it at AI Day. Based on the company's FSD Tesla Vision technology, this friendly robot is designed to automate boring, repetitive and dangerous tasks. The first version is expected to be completed next year. My guess is it could take 5-10 years before these are roaming the streets, but when they do, it will feel like we are living in a Black Mirror episode. This new humanoid robotics product line will unlock trillions in value for Tesla. In my opinion it will make them more money than EVs, energy storage, or solar ... it's a gamechanger for the trajectory of the company.

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Aug 20

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0:00 Tesla Impact Report  22:29 Shanghai, Tesla’s New Export Hub  24:56 $25K Tesla Made In China?  26:33 AirBnb Q2 analysis   32:32 Pipe: Nasdaq for revenue   37:09 Traeger Grills IPO  43:32 Tesla AI Vision Robots Moonshot

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Aug 16

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Biden snubs Tesla at his White House Event, proving that lobbying is institutionalized bribery in the United States. Bitcoin and Ethereum's biggest threat is legislation from the US government as they threaten hegemony of the traditional banking system and hegemony of the US Dollar. Neuralink raises $205M to accelerate development of its brain machine interface technology. And more!

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Aug 9

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Tesla AI day is on August 19th, and the rumors are swirling ... Dennis Hong is tweeting a storm, the invite says that Tesla will show what the AI can do beyond the car ... is Tesla getting ready to show us a humanoid robot, something like Ex-Machina?!?! Elon has something up his sleeve, what do you think it is!?

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Aug 5

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*SORRY FOR THE ROMAN CRICKETS IN THE BACKGROUND* Elon Musk has confirmed that Tesla will be hosting AI day on August 19th! I cover what I'm expecting from the event, with FSD Beta rollout, Tesla Vision, Andrej Karpathy & the Dojo supercomputer! Also, Rivian IPO gossip, Redwood Materials capital raise, Lightship RV (a new startup I'm working with), and me begging to get Snap Spectacles again ...

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Jul 30

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The weekly HyperChange podcast! SpaceX buys Bitcoin, Bitcoin's energy usage, Rivian charging network and IPO gossip, Synthesis is disrupting education, Bitcoin and Ethereum versus other crypto, FSD causing deflation, and more!!

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Jul 25

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Interview with Nic Carter, Bitcoin thought leader, Twitter legend, and Partner at Castle Island Ventures. We discuss Bitcoin's energy usage, and the role Tesla could play in mining Bitcoin with renewable energy at the utility scale. We also discuss when/if Central Banks will start buying Bitcoin, and Jack Dorsey's manifestation of Bitcoin adoption through Square and Twitter. This was an honor, thank you Nic for coming on the show! :)

Jul 24

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After spending a week driving Tesla's FSD V9 software all around Seattle, here are my thoughts. This is V1 of Tesla Vision (no radar), and it already preforms better than V8.2 (vision + radar), additionally, huge improvements have been made to the visualization, and 'Mind of Car' view. Although we are still 1-2 years away (at least, probably) from a truly self-driving car, Tesla's FSD software is already providing huge value, but driving well in most highway/urban situations.

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Jul 18

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Interview with Celsius CEO/Founder Alex Mashinsky. We discuss how Celsius is building a new type of crypto bank, offering a suite of financial services for 14 different blockchains, including Bitcoin and Ethereum. Celsius allows users to earn interest/income on their crypto, with rates as high as 8-9% annually. We dive into how this business model works, and whether or not I should start using Celsius to store my Bitcoin and earn some income. This was an EPIC interview, huge thanks for Alex Mashinsky for taking the time, I came away very impressed with what Celsius is doing (although I'm not a customer yet, I'm researching it actively, and will keep you posted ...).

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Jul 16

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Showing you my stock/crypto/startup portfolio. We go through why I own Tesla, SpaceX, Bitcoin, Ethereum (and 23 more investments), as well as how I think about structuring my portfolio and balance conviction with upside potential. Please let me know what you think in the comments below!! I want to scheme on this! :) Also next week's podcast will include a lot more Patreon Qs, sorry I couldn't get to them in this one!! I was having too much fun lol

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Jul 11

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US inflation is rising rapidly, is this the new normal? Robinhood is set to IPO for a ~$50B market cap, do you think they will brush off all the SEC fines and controversy? The Boring Company is no longer just a tweet, it's got a fully functional Loop tunnel in Las Vegas! Tesla's near term stock movement will probably have a lot to do with FSD progress ... and more covered in this epic HyperScheme!

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Jul 7

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Tesla reports 201,250 deliveries for Q2 2021, an increase of more than 100% from last year. This puts Tesla on track for the magical 1M/car/yr run-rate by the end of 2021. These awesome delivery numbers imply ~$11.5B in revenue and huge profits/cashflow. That's great, but we are just getting started, Tesla is poised to post record deliveries again in Q3 and Q4, and probably for years to come as they scale to their eventual 20M+/cars/yr goal.

Jul 2

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Interview with Moe Salih, Co-Founder of HyperCharts, about how he's using software to turn SEC filing data/complex financials into easy to read charts. One chart is worth 1,000 numbers! In just two years we've expanded HyperCharts from 5 companies (at launch) to 200+ and all the top cryptocurrencies. HyperCharts is my favorite tool for investment research, and it's the first thing I do to analyze a new stock/company/IPO someone tells me about! Huge shoutout to Moe for all the work he's done and being the CEO of HyperCharts!

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Jun 29

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Seattle is poised to hit a record 108 degrees this week! By far the hottest ever! You've never needed AC in Seattle before, but climate change is coming in hot, literally. The time is now for Tesla and Elon Musk to push their AC/smarthome HVAC product forward. We need an energy efficient way to heat and cool our homes, and Seattle is just the first city to encounter this problem. What are your thoughts? Would you buy an AC from Tesla?

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Jun 28

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Interview with Boxabl Founder Galiano Tiramani, about the new Casita foldable home concept, and rumors that Elon Musk is living in a Boxabl unit in Texas. Boxabl's goal is to revolutionize the manufacturing process behind homebuilding, and by doing so reduce housing costs and make buildings more energy efficient. What are your thoughts on the startup Boxabl? BOXABL IS CONSIDERING UNDERTAKING AN OFFERING OF SECURITIES UNDER TIER 2 OF REGULATION A. NO MONEY OR OTHER CONSIDERATION IS BEING SOLICITED, AND IF SENT IN RESPONSE, WILL NOT BE ACCEPTED. NO OFFER TO BUY THE SECURITIES CAN BE ACCEPTED AND NO PART OF THE PURCHASE PRICE CAN BE RECEIVED UNTIL THE OFFERING STATEMENT FILED BY THE COMPANY WITH THE SEC HAS BEEN QUALIFIED BY THE SEC. ANY SUCH OFFER MAY BE WITHDRAWN OR REVOKED, WITHOUT OBLIGATION OR COMMITMENT OF ANY KIND, AT ANY TIME BEFORE NOTICE OF ACCEPTANCE GIVEN AFTER THE DATE OF QUALIFICATION. AN INDICATION OF INTEREST INVOLVES NO OBLIGATION OR COMMITMENT OF ANY KIND. A COPY OF OUR PRELIMINARY OFFERING CIRCULAR MAY BE OBTAINED HERE, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1816937/000109690621000494/box_1aa.htm

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Jun 24

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We're schemin! Elon Musk is living in a Boxabl house in Starbase, Texas. Is this a fun fact, or clue about Tesla's next crazy product line/acquisition? Maybe a little of both. Boxabl's $50,000 Casita could be the future of housing on Earth and Mars ... combining it with Tesla engineers, smart HVAC, solarroof, Starlink and a battery = the future of carbon neutral living. What do you think? Is Tesla getting ready to acquire Boxabl? Would you buy Boxabl if you were Elon?

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Jun 23

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Elon Musk continues to hint about scaling up Tesla's HVAC technology into homes. I think this could be Tesla's next big unannounced product line. Between 40-50% of household energy consumption comes from heating and cooling. Tesla has the opportunity to install more energy efficient systems, combined with smart heating/cooling, and air filtration to hyperchange this industry. I think Tesla is working on an HVAC product, and maybe a full smarthome offering (where they build a house with a solar roof, powerwall, starlink and HVAC) ... What are your thoughts about this moonshot? Do you think Elon will put these Tesla HVAC ambitions into motion?

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Jun 16

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The story of my craziest investment ever ... how Venmoing my friend Mike Demarais $60 in May 2019 for a pair of limited edition crypto socks (Unisocks) would turn into $91,777 today, a solid 152,691% return in about two years. Unisocks have turned into a piece of blockchain history! What are your thoughts on this ridiculousness?

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Jun 4

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Ford's push to electrify its flagship F150 is admirable. The EV era is upon us. Seeing Tesla inspire legacy automotive to go all in on EVs, and electrify their best-selling most profitable product, is incredible! Elon's mission has been accomplished! Whether you think the Cybertruck is better or not, there's no denying that Ford's F150 Lightning is good for the planet. It pushes customers, suppliers and competition away from fossil fuels ... that is great. I've been critical of many legacy auto EVs in the past (like the Porsche Taycan, and Mach-E, and Ford Lightning), because I think they are very overpriced for their battery/drivetrain/software technology ... at least relative to Tesla. But for the auto industry? Compared to an ICE vehicle? There's no doubt this new EV push is a good thing. So I'm making this video to say props to Ford for making the bold move, and good luck! You're going to need it!!

Jun 2

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Interview with Akash Nigam, CEO of Genies, the custom digital avatar startup. Initially for celebrities like Justin Beiber and Jared Goff, Genies has just raised $65M to bring its technology to the masses. When you think about where the world is going, Ready Player One, Neuralink, and our general shift towards deeper immersion in the metaverse ... Genies is at the forefront. Allowing customers to express themselves and connect in ways that we've never seen before. This is my newest startup investment (shoutout Niv!), and I can't wait to see what Genies does next!!

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Jun 1

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Tesla's Cybertruck has unofficially crossed 1M net reservations/pre-orders. This represents a ~$60B backlog. Tesla's Cybertruck reservations spiked after the Ford F-150 Lightning EV unveiling. In this video I break down how the electric pickup industry will unfold as the Cybertruck and Ford Lightning go head to head. Hint: I think Ford is going to have a very tough road ahead. With worse specs all around, no SuperCharging or FSD/Autopilot ... I know I'm sticking to my Cybertruck order lol.

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May 25

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nterview with Rally CEO George Leimer. Rally just raised a $30M Series B to  fulfill its mission of making everything in the world a tradeable asset. I've seen Rally scale from classic cars to a dozen categories, and think this company is poised to become a massive platform as it securitizes everything from sports cards, to art, to the declaration of independence to Boring Company Flamethrowers, or even Tesla Tequila!!

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May 25

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Let's say SpaceX broke the internet and announced they were doing an IPO. How much do you think they would be worth? In this moonshot, I breakdown SpaceX's business model, from government contracts and launches to Starlink's internet service. And show you how I arrive at a multi hundred billion valuation for Elon Musk's rocket company. Leave your guess on SpaceX's valuation in the comments below!

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May 18

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Elon Musk has announced that Tesla has suspended vehicle purchases using Bitcoin due to the network's increasing energy consumption. Additionally, he just tweet that he's working with Dogecoin developers to make that network more efficient. Just two days ago, he put out a poll asking his followers whether or not Tesla should allow Doge as payment. The response was an overwhelming yes (78.2% on ~4M votes). Now it's anybody's guess what Elon Musk/Tesla's next crypto move will be .. what's you're take? Is Elon trying to ditch Bitcoin for Doge?

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May 14

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Elon Musk is set to appear on Saturday Night Live (SNL) on May 8th!! Will he mention Dogecoin!? Seriously though, Elon Musk is the 23rd most followed Twitter account in the world, and gaining millions of followers per month. Additionally, on Google Trends he is more searched for than Taylor Swift or Kim Kardashian!! This is a major X factor in Elon's empire, his brand/celeb status = free marketing dollars and exposure for his vision! It's so cool to watch the internet support Elon and his companies that are building a brighter future. When do you think Elon will hit 100M Twitter followers??

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May 5

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Elon Musk's brain-chip company Neuralink doesn't get anywhere near the attention it should. This breakthrough in electronics, and biotechnology is opening up new possibilities for medical treatment, and may eventually make the smartphone obsolete. Is Neuralink the biggest threat to Apple? Will Neuralink become bigger than Tesla and SpaceX, and be the biggest companny in the world? Join me for this podast/scheme/update about Elon Musk's Neuralink.

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May 4

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My friend Aidan asked if he could interview me for HyperChange. At first I wasn't sure what to expect, but we had an epic conversation about my career pre-HyperChange, why I started the channel, my goals for the future, HyperGuap, startup investing and being a creator. This was a ton of fun and huge shoutout to Aidan for making it happen!

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Apr 30

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