Institute for the Study of War

Overwatch, an Institute for the Study of War podcast,

goes beyond the news headlines to give listeners analysis and commentary on issues related to U.S. national security and American foreign policy. The episodes feature discussions with experts and practitioners to explore what challenges and opportunities lie ahead for the U.S.

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Thousands of migrants from the Middle East have become stranded on the border between Belarus and Poland, creating a dangerous stand-off between the two countries. With the European Union behind Poland and Russia supporting Belarus’s authoritarian president, Alexander Lukashenko, the situation has ramifications for stability far beyond the frigid forests of this Eastern European border region. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Lead Russia Analyst Mason Clark discusses the origins of this crisis and its ramifications for the European Union, Russia, and beyond.

Nov 18

15 min 34 sec

Turkish President Erdogan may launch a new incursion into Syria that could target the Syrian Defense Forces, the US partner in the counter-ISIS fight. Turkish troops assembled in border areas near SDF positions and Turkish-occupied parts of northern Syria in late October, though deployments appear to have slowed since then. On this episode of Overwatch, Matt McInnis and Ezgi Yazici discuss what a new Turkish incursion could look like and the effects that such a development would have on the broader region. Visit www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/isws-overwatch-podcast-series to see a map that ISW produced to help readers follow along with this discussion.

Nov 3

23 min 42 sec

The Defense Department recently declassified a briefing Dr. David Crist prepared in 2020 on US war planning in the Middle East against the Soviet Union from 1979 to 1987.  On this episode of Overwatch, Dr. Crist talks to ISW Research Director Matthew McInnis about this assessment and what it may reveal about a possible future conflict with Iran and strategic competition with Russia and China in the region.  Dr. David Crist is the Executive Director of the Joint Staff History and Research Office and an advisor to US Central Command Commander General Frank McKenzie. He is also the author of “The Twilight War” which is still considered a must-read for students of the US-Iran conflict since the 1979 revolution.   You can see the entire declassified briefing on the ISW website. 

Oct 26

17 min 23 sec

We’re nearing the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the start of the war in Afghanistan. Following the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban have seized control of the country, and the US-backed government has collapsed. Meanwhile, Turkey, Russia, China, and other powers remaining in the region are openly jostling for influence in the vacuum left by US forces. Katherine Zimmerman, a Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, has followed US counterterrorism issues and the war in Afghanistan closely. On this episode of Overwatch, she discusses the state of US counterterrorism efforts and American involvement in Afghanistan.

Sep 10

24 min 13 sec

Russian leaders have a very specific vision for the future of warfare, one that US leaders need to understand if they are to effectively counter Russian strategy and technology. This is the second episode in our series examining the Russian understanding of hybrid war. In our first episode on this topic, we discussed the ways in which Russia’s definition of this term differs from the West and why those differences need to be understood by US leaders and policymakers. On this episode of Overwatch, Mason Clark, ISW’s Russia team lead, talks about the places and ways in which Russia’s concept of hybrid war is affecting reality.

Jul 14

20 min 12 sec

Russian leaders and policymakers use the term “hybrid war” to refer to a very specific type of conflict, while their counterparts in the West tend to use that same term in a general sense to refer to different kinds of conflict that include a mix of conventional and asymmetrical means. US leaders cannot allow this semantic difference to go unexamined because those same Russian leaders believe they are on the defensive side of a hybrid war perpetrated by the West against Russia. Failing to appreciate the nuances of the Russian interpretation of hybrid war is therefore akin to ignoring a potential adversary’s rules of engagement and could easily lead to policy missteps and unintended consequences. Mason Clark leads ISW’s Russia Team and has been closely studying the Russian definition of hybrid war. He joins this episode of Overwatch to talk about the importance of this term’s definition in US-Russia relations.

Jun 24

20 min 30 sec

The struggle to succeed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is growing intense. Its outcome will have significant consequences for Iran, the Middle East, and the US. Khamenei’s health has been failing for years, and his retirement or passing seems increasingly imminent. Current indicators suggest that his successor will be more hardline and less willing or able to rein in the aggressive instincts of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. In this episode of Overwatch, Nicholas Heras, Director of Government Relations at ISW, and Nicholas Carl, the Iran Team Lead at the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, discuss the leading candidates to succeed Khamenei, their policy views on engaging with the United States and the West, and how the process of picking the next Supreme Leader could affect US policy on Iran.

Apr 15

34 min 34 sec

ISIS has carried out more acts of violence in the Al Hawl displacement camp in the first quarter of 2021 than in all of 2020. The militant group exploits camp members for propaganda and recruitment, fueling its activities elsewhere in northeast Syria. The US-partnered Syrian Democratic Forces has launched an operation to quell and contain ISIS activity in the camp, but the operation’s long-term prospects for success are grim without consistent international support. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Evans Hanson Fellow Eva Kahan discusses the ongoing operation and what it means for ISIS in the region.

Apr 9

10 min 36 sec

Civil war and an unrestrained al Qaeda are all but certain should the US withdraw its forces from Afghanistan in May per the US-Taliban deal signed over a year ago. American disengagement will only embolden revisionist powers and create an even more dangerous security situation for the region and beyond. On this episode of Overwatch, Frederick W. Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, and General David H. Petraeus sit down to discuss the US-Taliban agreement, the consequences of a US withdrawal, and a sustainable way forward that protects not only American interests, but also advances those of the Afghan people.

Mar 16

27 min 20 sec

The results of the Iranian presidential election in June 2021 will determine whether Iran shifts toward greater cooperation or increasing conflict with the United States. This uncertainty comes as the Biden administration is trying to reboot diplomacy with Iran using an ambitious agenda that goes beyond nuclear nonproliferation to include thorny issues such as the Iranian ballistic missile program and Iran's activities in the Middle East. In this episode of Overwatch, Nicholas Heras, Director of Government Relations at ISW, is joined by Frederick Kagan, Director of the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute, and Nicholas Carl, the Iran Team Lead at CTP, to discuss nuances in Iran's upcoming presidential cycle that will have a significant impact on what the Biden administration can expect to achieve diplomatically with Iran.

Feb 2

42 min 41 sec

Vladimir Putin enjoyed a successful 2020 despite a slate of setbacks to his agenda. New constitutional amendments will allow him to rule the Russian state for life. Putin manipulated the crisis in Belarus to gain leverage over that country and successfully expanded Russian military ties to several other states in the former Soviet Union. He exploited the COVID-19 pandemic to fuel disinformation campaigns against the United States and undermine sanctions imposed on Russia by the West. These successes came amid milder setbacks for Putin’s ambitions in the Balkans and Ukraine. The collapse in oil and gas prices ravaged the fuel-driven Russian economy but failed to derail Putin’s campaigns. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and George Barros discuss Putin and the Kremlin’s biggest successes and setbacks in 2020.

Jan 27

25 min 26 sec

Tensions between the United States and Iran are high as a transition in administrations has happened in Washington, DC. President Joe Biden and his top national security advisers want to get back into the nuclear deal with Iran and make it stronger if Iran is willing to get back into compliance with the terms of the deal. In this episode of Overwatch, Nicholas Heras, Director of Government Relations at ISW, and Frederick Kagan, Director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, discuss what we can expect in the looming delicate diplomatic dance between the United States and Iran.

Jan 25

31 min 59 sec

A civil war between Ethiopia’s central government and one of its regional states threatens security across East Africa. Ethiopia is Africa’s second-most populous country and a US security partner; the humanitarian and security consequences of this domestic conflict have already begun to affect the surrounding region. The fighting has pushed refugees into Sudan, drawn in fighters from Eritrea, and created fertile ground for militant groups like Al-Shabaab to recruit and expand. On this episode of Overwatch, Jessica Kocan, an analyst from the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, discusses the Ethiopian conflict and the dangers it poses to US national security interests and the surrounding region. 

Dec 2020

15 min 12 sec

The COVID-19 pandemic is changing the global order and reshaping the balance of power on the world stage. The lessons that nations and their militaries take from this crisis will shape their capacity to adapt to COVID-19 and enhance their resilience to future crises. Elsa Kania, ISW’s Non-Resident Fellow in Indo-Pacific Security, recently published a detailed report examining China’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Chinese state and military’s coordinated nationwide response to the COVID-19 pandemic tested their national defense mobilization and civil-military fusion strategies. These are the capabilities China would use to move from peacetime to wartime in response to potential future crises and conflicts, including with the United States and its allies. Elsa discusses her assessment of these newly revealed capabilities and more on this episode of Overwatch.

Dec 2020

44 min 8 sec

The United States holds enormous power and responsibility in the world. With the US presidential transition underway, ISW President Kim Kagan sat down with Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster (US Army, ret.) to discuss the many challenges facing the United States, including the pernicious effect of Chinese military diplomacy and the threat from Iran. McMaster argues that US troop deployments, and other forms of engagement abroad, "are immensely important to sustaining our security and prosperity" and that the US must savvily modernize its armed forces. McMaster outlines his view of the strategic successes and failures of the Obama and Trump administrations and his recommendations for President-elect Biden and his team. H.R. McMaster served as national security advisor from 2017 to 2018 and is the author of the recently published book Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World.

Dec 2020

40 min 56 sec

The recent local elections in Ukraine were an important political battleground in Putin’s contest to restore Kremlin-friendly rule and annex territory in that country, the objective behind his 2014 invasion of Ukraine. The Kremlin’s costly military operations failed to achieve their desired political outcome, resulting instead in a protracted war between Ukrainian armed forces and Russian proxies occupying eastern Ukraine and sophisticated political and information warfare aimed at shaping Kyiv’s government. The Kremlin recently sought to manipulate local elections in Ukraine to legitimize Russian proxies in Donbas, the territory they occupy in eastern Ukraine, and include its electorate within Ukraine itself. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Russia Team member George Barros discusses the outcome of Ukraine’s recent elections; the Kremlin’s techniques to attempt to influence Ukrainian elections; and the integration of military, political, and information operations in Russia’s hybrid war against its neighbor.

Nov 2020

14 min 48 sec

Russian President Vladimir Putin has a longstanding objective to integrate Belarus into Russian-controlled structures. The Kremlin is undermining the Belarusian president's attempts to calm protests while simultaneously using the protest movement to justify Russian involvement in Belarusian affairs. This interference may enable Putin to deploy more Russian forces on NATO's eastern flank and advance Putin’s campaign to reassert Russian control over former Soviet states. On this episode of Overwatch, Mason Clark and George Barros discuss the trajectory of the crisis and what the Kremlin seeks to gain from it.

Oct 2020

17 min 18 sec

The US is routinely confronted with crises that worsen and expand in scope over time. Modern technology and global interconnectedness have made these self-reinforcing crises increasingly common and intractable. In this episode of Overwatch, Emily Estelle discusses this phenomenon and the danger it presents to US national security. 

Oct 2020

37 min 23 sec

Mass anti-government protests erupted in Iraq in October 2019. The protests led to the resignation of the government in what became known as the "October Revolution," but not before crackdowns by Iraqi Security Forces and Iran-backed proxies killed over 600 people. On this episode of Overwatch, Katherine Lawlor talks about the origins of the protest movement, what has changed in Iraq over the last year, and what’s next for the protest movement as a whole.

Oct 2020

15 min 2 sec

Russian President Vladimir Putin plays a weak hand well. His center of gravity is increasingly his ability to shape others’ perception and create the image of a powerful Russia based on limited real power. He has several clear strengths, but also very real limitations. Nonetheless, he continues to achieve goals that should be beyond his capabilities. Nataliya Bugayova recently published a detailed report on how Putin has used a series of offsetting approaches to achieve his goals and how Putin has evolved these approaches since the 2014 annexation of Crimea. She joins Overwatch today to talk about her report and its findings.

Sep 2020

26 min 2 sec

The United States retains a small but highly effective force in Syria. This force has a clear mission: defeat ISIS and prevent the resurgence of extremist groups in eastern Syria. However, poor communication and muddled media coverage has contributed to a lack of clarity regarding the role and mission of US forces. In this episode of Overwatch, Jennifer Cafarella and Eva Kahan cut through the confusion to provide a clear assessment of the purpose, status, and likely future of US forces in Syria.

Sep 2020

37 min 53 sec

ISW Board Chairman General Jack Keane (US Army, Retired) is a foreign policy and national security expert who was in the Pentagon on September 11, 2001. He went on to provide oversight and support for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. On this episode of Overwatch, General Keane (Ret.) recounts his experiences on the day of the attack and gives his perspectives on the ensuing 19 years of war.

Sep 2020

35 min 28 sec

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the local US partner force in northeast Syria, is facing intense pressure from ISIS, the Syrian Regime, and Turkey. The SDF’s already-fraught relations with local Arab tribes have deteriorated significantly, especially in Deir ez-Zour Province. These issues came to a head in August when the assassination of several tribal sheikhs triggered a tribal backlash against the SDF. In this episode of Overwatch, Eva Kahan, John Dunford, and Jason Zhou discuss the escalating situation in Deir ez-Zour and what it means for US national security.

Sep 2020

25 min

Belarus has been in a state of civil unrest for several weeks. As popular protests came to pose a genuine threat to President Lukashenko's regime, Russia became involved to protect its interests in the country. Since then, the situation in Belarus has become exponentially more complicated, evolving from a relatively straightforward domestic dispute between a strongman president and his disgruntled citizens into an international debacle that involves Russia, Poland, Lithuania, NATO, and the EU. In this episode of Overwatch, ISW’s Mason Clark and George Barros draw on their daily coverage of Belarus to unpack what the situation there means for US national security. 

Aug 2020

25 min 8 sec

Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi was in Washington this week for high-level bilateral meetings known as the US-Iraqi Strategic Dialogue. Kadhimi has been hard-charging toward reforms in Iraq that would combat Iranian influence and prevent the country from collapse, but these efforts will be undermined by Trump's call to leave Iraq soon.  In this episode of Overwatch, Nicholas Heras and Katherine Lawlor discuss Kadhimi’s position, the future of Iraq, and whether he remains a viable US partner.

Aug 2020

20 min 47 sec

Claimed ISIS attacks in Turkish and opposition-controlled northwest Syria have spiked in the past two months. The United States scaled down its forces in Syria and Iraq after the defeat of the Islamic State’s contiguous territorial caliphate in 2019. US policy-makers have since focused on empowering local forces who fought in the anti-ISIS coalition, including NATO ally Turkey. However, Turkey’s commitment to this fight remains uncertain. In this episode of Overwatch, Eva Kahan, ISW’s Evans-Hanson fellow, discusses these issues and what they mean for US national security.

Aug 2020

20 min 49 sec

Russia is offering rare support for a new ceasefire in Ukraine’s eastern region of Donbas by not blaming Ukraine for recent ceasefire violations, despite derailing several similar ceasefires in the past. The ceasefire began on July 27 and represents an important new development in the now six-year-old conflict between the Ukrainian government and Russian-backed proxy forces in eastern Ukraine. In this episode of Overwatch, Mason Clark and George Barros explain the significance of the ceasefire and what Ukraine and Russia hope to achieve from it.

Aug 2020

14 min 41 sec

Al Qaeda-linked groups Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Hurras al Din clashed in late June and early July and remain at odds as defections prompted by the former’s increasingly pro-Turkish posture continue. Al Qaeda is backing fighters from a diverse set of groups and HTS has likely secured Turkish support, making the persistence of a Salafi-jihadist haven in Syria very likely. In this episode of Overwatch, Nicholas Heras and Isabel Ivanescu discuss the causes and implications of the recent infighting.

Aug 2020

21 min 51 sec

The Islamic State and Al Qaeda are locked in a struggle for ideological supremacy in Africa. While this fight may seem appealing to the US, it presents some dangerous pitfalls that threaten US national security and the well-being of millions of Africans. In this episode of Overwatch, Emily Estelle, the research manager of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, explains how a fight between two US adversaries could catalyze greater challenges in the future.

Jul 2020

33 min 2 sec

Russian President Vladimir Putin recently enacted a constitutional amendment that will allow him to run for president again in 2024 and potentially remain in power until 2036. This amendment is a critical accomplishment for Putin, as term limits threatened to force him from office in 2024, but it came with a steep price in terms of legitimacy. In this episode of Overwatch, Nataliya Bugayova, Mason Clark, and George Barros discuss the nuanced steps Putin took to secure this constitutional change and what the next 16 years of his leadership could mean for the Russian people and US national security.

Jul 2020

25 min 3 sec

The Syrian Civil War is well into its ninth year and shows little sign of ending. The US recently deployed a new wave of sanctions targeting the Syrian Regime. Meanwhile, Russia, Turkey, and Iran are actively interfering with the UN peace process by running their own competing negotiations. In this episode of Overwatch, ISW Middle East Program Manager Nicholas Heras and Syria Research Assistant John Dunford discuss these efforts and the complex webs through which they interact.

Jul 2020

25 min 20 sec

The global health crisis caused by COVID-19 has affected nearly every aspect of American society and government. The pandemic has forced changes to individual lifestyles as well as the highest levels of policymaking. In this episode of Overwatch, ISW National Security Fellow Jennifer Cafarella discusses the challenges, threats, and opportunities that COVID-19 presents to US national security.

Jul 2020

34 min 19 sec

Egypt is preparing a military intervention to prevent Turkish-backed forces from advancing into eastern Libya. The intervention raises the risk of direct conflict with Turkey, which could spread throughout the region. Meanwhile, Russia is positioned to benefit from rising tensions between Turkey and fellow NATO members. In this episode of Overwatch, Emily Estelle, Research Manager for the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, discusses these issues and others.

Jun 2020

32 min 33 sec

The future of the roughly 5,000 US military personnel in Iraq is a key topic in a strategic dialogue that recently began between US and Iraqi negotiators. Iraqi opinion is split between those who oppose the continued US presence and those who believe it remains essential to Iraqi security. In the background, Iran and its Iraq-based political and militant proxies are pushing for the complete withdrawal of US forces. In this episode of Overwatch, Katherine Lawlor, Brandon Wallace, and Jason Zhou discuss the present state of affairs in Iraq and the implications of a possible US force withdrawal.

Jun 2020

19 min 11 sec

The Hill recently published an op-ed by Institute for the Study of War Senior Fellow Lieutenant General Jim Dubik (US Army, Retired). Dubik is one of America's preeminent experts on military ethics. His latest op-ed draws on his experience with the US counterinsurgency campaign in Iraq and uses the lessons he learned in that conflict to critique the US government's response to recent protests inside the US. In this episode of Overwatch, ISW Editor Jacob Taylor speaks to Lt. Gen. Dubik about the purpose of his op-ed and his suggested improvements to the government's decision-making process. 

Jun 2020

16 min 14 sec

The Syrian regime’s desperate financial situation has led President Bashar al-Assad to persecute his own cousin as a pretense to seize his financial assets. The cousin in question, Rami Makhlouf, has been a key supporter of the regime for years and is one of Syria’s richest men. His downfall demonstrates the regime’s dire need to obtain resources as it fights to keep control over territory in western Syria. In this episode of Overwatch, Nick Heras, John Dunford, and Michael Land discuss the implications of Assad’s fight with Makhlouf and consider the role that Russia and Iran may play in a reshaped Syrian regime.

Jun 2020

31 min 6 sec

Kremlin-affiliated networks are falsely accusing the United States of engineering the coronavirus responsible for the ongoing pandemic. This narrative is one of several interlocking disinformation efforts by the Kremlin that exploit COVID-19. In this episode of Overwatch, ISW’s Russia team unpacks how the Kremlin's complex information operations support its long-standing objectives in Syria, in Ukraine, and globally.

Jun 2020

16 min 9 sec

New Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi has strengthened his position and achieved a handful of successes in the first few weeks of his tenure. However, Kadhimi will face enormous challenges as Iraq’s new head of state, particularly in balancing Iraq’s tumultuous and often contradictory relationship with the US and Iran. In this episode of Overwatch, Middle East Program Manager Nicholas Heras and Research Assistant Katherine Lawlor discuss the first steps of Kadhimi’s administration and the pressures he will face as he renegotiates the role of the United States in Iraq.

May 2020

15 min 58 sec

Iran views Syria as an integral component of its military power in the Middle East. Despite converging public health and economic crises severely straining Iran’s resources, the country is sustaining, and possibly increasing, its military investment in Syria. In this episode of Overwatch, Middle East Program Manager Nicholas Heras, Syria Research Assistant John Dunford, and CTP Iran Analyst Kyra Rauschenbach discuss the nature of Iran’s attachment to Syria and what it may mean in the future.

May 2020

18 min 44 sec

Russia, the US, the EU, and NATO all consider the Balkans to be a region of significant strategic value. Despite the Kremlin’s best efforts to the contrary, the region is currently swinging toward the West, with North Macedonia recently joining NATO and several other Balkan states making progress toward EU membership. In this episode of Overwatch, ISW Russia Team Lead Nataliya Bugayova and Research Assistant George Barros discuss the past, present, and future of this historically volatile region.

May 2020

9 min 25 sec

Description: Years of poor governance and economic insecurity have allowed Salafi Jihadist groups to metastasize in several parts of Africa. In this episode of Overwatch, ISW Middle East Security Program Manager Nicholas Heras and CTP Research Manager Emily Estelle discuss the opportunities that the COVID-19 crisis presents for these groups to expand the reach of their terrorist activities.

May 2020

19 min 31 sec

The Kremlin is using the COVID pandemic to advance a range of goals. Russia is leveraging UN calls for limited relaxations of certain economic sanctions to paint the US as anti-humanitarian. Meanwhile, Kremlin internal security is using quarantines to justify the testing of new tech-based authoritarian controls. In this podcast, Nataliya Bugayova, George Barros, and Mason Clark discuss these developments and more.

Apr 2020

14 min 47 sec

General David H. Petraeus (US Army, Retired) and Vance Serchuk speak with ISW Founder and President Dr. Kimberly Kagan on the dangers of the US deal with the Taliban. They assess what the United States must do in Afghanistan to secure its national interests and prevent another 9/11. The US strategy in Afghanistan has been costly and unsatisfying - but also reasonably successful in preventing another terrorist attack on the homeland. The United States has made a peace deal with the Taliban in order to extricate its forces from Afghanistan, but it will soon lose the means to compel the Taliban to fulfill its part of the bargain. Should the United States pull its military out of Afghanistan anyway? Will the Taliban prevent international terrorists from returning? If so, can the United States counter terrorists in Afghanistan from afar?    General David Petraeus has served as Director of the CIA, Commander of Coalition Forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Commander of the US Central Command. He is now Chairman of the KKR Global Institute and a partner at KKR.  He also serves on the Board of Directors at the Institute for the Study of War. Vance Serchuk is the Executive Director of the KKR Global Institute and an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. He previously served as the Foreign Policy Adviser to Senator Joseph Lieberman.

Apr 2020

47 min 52 sec

Russian President Vladimir Putin is taking advantage of converging crises, including COVID-19, to surreptitiously advance his campaign in Ukraine. Ukrainian officials agreed on March 11 to the Kremlin’s demands to consider direct discussions with the Kremlin-controlled proxies in Donbas. This agreement, if finalized, could launch an irreversible process of legitimizing Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine. In this episode of Overwatch, ISW Russia Team Lead Nataliya Bugayova and Russia Research Assistants George Barros and Mason Clark discuss this recent development and contextualize it in the Kremlin’s campaign to regain dominant influence in Ukraine.

Mar 2020

14 min 35 sec

The December offensive launched by Russian-backed Syrian Regime forces in Greater Idlib Province produced an unprecedented humanitarian disaster. Turkey responded to the offensive with major military deployments to Idlib and a series of escalations against pro-regime forces. In this episode of Overwatch, Middle East Security Program Manager Nicholas Heras and Syria Research Assistant John Dunford discuss the Turkish campaign, the current ceasefire deal, and what to expect next.

Mar 2020

13 min 37 sec

Likely Russian actors launched a disinformation campaign against Ukraine exploiting COVID-19 fears related to the Ukrainian government’s evacuation of its citizens from Wuhan, China. The campaign’s tactics, timing, and nature point toward Kremlin involvement. In this episode of Overwatch, ISW’s Russia Team Lead Nataliya Bugayova and Russia Research Assistant George Barros discuss this information operation, the Kremlin’s disinformation techniques, and larger implications for Ukraine.   

Mar 2020

8 min 27 sec

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), America’s local partner in northeastern Syria, was instrumental in the fight against ISIS and is working to fill the vacuum it left behind. In this episode of Overwatch, ISW’s Research Director Jennifer Cafarella, new Middle East Portfolio Manager Nicholas Heras, and Syria Research Assistant John Dunford discuss the structure and behavior of the SDF, the group’s relationship with the US military, the unique challenges it faces in governing, and its efforts to prevent the resurgence of ISIS within local populations.

Feb 2020

20 min 37 sec

Qassem Soleimani’s death and the prospect of further US-Iranian military escalation raise the question of Iran’s military capacity. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Ground Forces are Tehran’s reserve of last resort for both internal and external security challenges.  The Iranian regime goes to great lengths to obfuscate the IRGC’s military strength and organization of its ground forces. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) recently published the groundbreaking report Iran’s Reserve of Last Resort: Uncovering the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Ground Forces Order of Battle. In this episode of Overwatch, AEI Resident Scholar and CTP Director Fred Kagan and CTP Iran Team Lead Nicholas Carl discuss their recent report and the crucial role that the IRGC plays in the regime’s survival and Iranian efforts to project power and export their revolution abroad.

Feb 2020

16 min 16 sec

Vladimir Putin's current term as Russia's President expires in 2024. Over the past two weeks, Putin reshuffled Russia's government, proposed a set of major changes to the Russian constitution, and pledged significant social spending. ISW's Russia Team Lead Nataliya Bugayova describes how this reshuffling fits into Putin's ongoing campaign to retain power and the subsequent vulnerabilities Putin will face as he manages this transition. 

Jan 2020

8 min 23 sec

Last month, ISW Director of Tradecraft and Innovation, Colonel (Ret.) Ketti Davison, traveled to Iraq with a team of experts organized by the UNHCR. She got a first-hand look at some of the security and humanitarian conditions on the ground in IDP and refugee camps and met with government officials during her trip to central and northern Iraq. On this episode, Ketti shares her key takeaways from this trip and discusses the broader political dynamics that are currently shaking Iraq, a country that remains vital to U.S. national security interests. 

Jan 2020

12 min 3 sec