Macro Horizons

BMO Capital Markets

BMO strategists discuss the week ahead in U.S. rates and global trends in the FICC macroclimate. Margaret Kerins, Ian Lyngen, Dan Krieter, Dan Belton, Ben Jeffery, Greg Anderson, Stephen Gallo, Ben Reitzes and other special guests provide weekly and monthly updates on the Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities (“FICC”) markets, bringing you thoughtful and timely insights on topics ranging from U.S. Interest Rates to macro focused subjects like the progress toward replacing LIBOR and the path of Monetary Policy. Macro Horizons delivers relevant and insightful commentary to help investors navigate the ever-changing global market landscape.

For legal disclosure, visit http://www.bmocm.com/macrohorizons/legal

Macro Horizons - Trailer
Trailer 1 min 19 sec

All Episodes

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of November 29th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Nov 24

20 min 1 sec

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss the outlook for spreads into yearend from the standpoint of technicals, fundamentals, and the macro picture, each of which point to modest weakness in the weeks ahead. They also discuss the recent move in front-end swap spreads including the drivers and near-term outlook.

Nov 23

25 min 56 sec

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of November 22nd, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Nov 19

22 min 34 sec

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of November 15th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Nov 12

23 min 9 sec

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss likely changes in the composition at the Fed including the likely next Chair and Vice Chair for Supervision. They also discuss what the Fed’s new regulatory regime might look like and its implications for credit and swap spreads.

Nov 10

27 min 28 sec

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of November 8th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Nov 5

24 min 22 sec

Margaret Kerins along with Ian Lyngen, Greg Anderson, Stephen Gallo, Dan Krieter, Dan Belton and Ben Jeffery from our FICC Macro Strategy bring you their reactions to the November FOMC meeting and other main narratives that are dominating market pricing and what these themes imply for US rates, high quality spreads and foreign exchange.

Nov 3

24 min 50 sec

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of November 1st, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Oct 29

21 min 26 sec

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss seemingly the only factor driving credit markets: inflation. They also debate how their inflation outlook will impact credit markets going forward.

Oct 27

31 min 42 sec

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of October 25th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Oct 22

20 min 51 sec

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss the unexpected dip in the overnight SOFR rate including its drivers and implications for investors. Other topics include recent factors impacting credit markets, developments in the LIBOR/SOFR transition, and SOFR swaps.

Oct 20

24 min 7 sec

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of October 18th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Oct 15

23 min 15 sec

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss four factors likely to bring a new, wider range in credit spreads in 2022 including inflation/growth concerns, monetary policy, fiscal policy, and technicals. Other topics include recent norms for credit spread ranges.

Oct 13

23 min 53 sec

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of October 12th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Oct 8

21 min 15 sec

Margaret Kerins along with with Ian Lyngen, Greg Anderson, Stephen Gallo, Dan Krieter, Ben Reitzes, Dan Belton and Ben Jeffery from our FICC Macro Strategy discuss the new range for US rates and what to expect in 2022, potential implications of Fed taper on TIPS pricing and what this means for nominal yields, oil prices and the FX market, G10 monetary policy stances, inflation versus growth in Canada, and corporate market supply and spread projections including implications of a new Vice Chair for Supervision at the Fed.

Oct 5

20 min 52 sec

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of October 4th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Sep 30

19 min 56 sec

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton debate the case for credit spreads moving wider or narrower and the factors most likely to impact credit in the near- and medium-terms including Fed tapering, the growth and inflation outlooks, and supply and demand technical.

Sep 29

26 min 42 sec

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of September 27th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Sep 24

21 min 12 sec

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss their main takeaways from the September FOMC meeting, including guidance from the Fed that a taper announcement is likely due in November. Other topics include the hawkish Fed dots, discussion around the next Vice Chair for Supervision, and implications for credit spreads.

Sep 22

26 min 29 sec

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of September 20th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Sep 17

20 min 21 sec

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss the recent onslaught in high grade corporate supply and what to expect for issuance the rest of September. They then discuss looming technical changes facing high grade credit markets including the impact of the debt ceiling resolution, Fed tapering, and possible Treasury coupon auction cuts on reserve balances and credit spreads.

Sep 15

22 min 49 sec

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of September 13th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Sep 9

21 min 38 sec

Margaret Kerins along with Ian Lyngen, Greg Anderson, Stephen Gallo, Ben Reitzes, Dan Belton and Ben Jeffery from BMO CM's FICC Macro Strategy team discuss whether or not employment data will derail taper timing, the separation of taper from from liftoff timing, credit spread and supply outlook, Canadian elections, GDP miss and implications for the BoC and the main themes driving currencies into year-end. They conclude with a rapid-fire, year-end outlook for US and Canadian rates, high quality spreads and currencies. 

Sep 7

21 min 34 sec

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of September 7th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Sep 3

21 min 27 sec

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss what to expect with respect to the coming wave of issuance following the long weekend and how the market will absorb the new supply. Other topics include the important role that fiscal policy will play in coming months.

Sep 1

22 min 54 sec

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of August 30th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Aug 27

19 min 29 sec

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss credit spreads in the current directionless markets ahead of this week’s much awaited Jackson Hole Symposium. Other topics include coming changes at the Fed and expectations for financial regulation in 2022 and 2023.

Aug 25

22 min 20 sec

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of August 23rd, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Aug 20

21 min 42 sec

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss their outlook for credit spreads through three distinct factors: technicals, fundamentals, and the macro landscape. On balance, they conclude these factors should point to narrower spreads with credit spreads likely to retest cyclical tights into year-end.

Aug 18

26 min 43 sec

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of August 16th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Aug 13

23 min 26 sec

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of August 9th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Aug 6

18 min 43 sec

Margaret Kerins along with Ian Lyngen, Greg Anderson, Dan Krieter and Ben Jeffery from BMO’s FICC Macro Strategy team bring you their debate on the longer-term viability of the Fed’s characterization of inflation and the implications for U.S. rates, high quality spreads and FX.

Aug 3

23 min 10 sec

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of August 2nd, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Jul 30

21 min 45 sec

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of July 26h, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Jul 23

21 min 57 sec

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss the ramifications of the recent bout of Treasury market volatility including the modest widening in credit spreads and discuss whether more weakness will be realized. Other topics include the threats to global growth and rising inflation and front-end dynamics ahead of the month-end debt ceiling deadline.

Jul 21

29 min 2 sec

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of July 19th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Jul 16

22 min 31 sec

Margaret Kerins along with Ian Lyngen, Greg Anderson, Stephen Gallo, Ben Reitzes, Dan Belton and Ben Jeffery from BMO Capital Market’s FICC Macro Strategy team bring debate of perceived risks as the Fed attempts to thread the growth/inflation needle, the debt ceiling suspension deadline approaches, and taper talk heats up.

Jul 13

27 min 23 sec

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of July 12th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Jul 9

22 min 48 sec

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss the recent rally in Treasury yields and what it means for credit spreads. Other topics include the implications for Fed policy and forthcoming details on a potential boost for corporate paper from pension funds.

Jul 7

27 min

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of July 6th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Jul 2

17 min 56 sec

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss the likely path of credit spreads in Q3 including the supply and demand factors that will drive credit markets including deleveraging, financial issuance, and seasonality.

Jun 30

23 min 26 sec

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of June 28th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Jun 25

21 min 6 sec

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss three major adjustments impacting their markets in recent weeks. First, the Fed’s changing outlook on inflation including the risk inflation is higher and more persistent than expected. Second, they discuss an adjustment to the IG index controlling for credit quality and duration which shows in spreads trading well within all-time tights. Finally, they discuss the impact of the Fed’s technical adjustment on the front-end.

Jun 23

22 min 40 sec

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of June 21st, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Jun 18

20 min 48 sec

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss their takeaways from the June FOMC which featured a more hawkish outlook from the Summary of Economic Projections, an acknowledgement that the Fed might be underestimating the likely path of inflation, and a technical adjustment to the Fed’s administered rates. They conclude with a brief discussion on what tapering will likely mean for credit spreads later this year.

Jun 16

25 min 51 sec

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of June 14th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Jun 11

21 min 14 sec

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss the factors most likely to break spreads from current ranges including relative value, the Fed’s plan to sell SMCCF holdings, and technicals. They then discuss recent developments in the LIBOR transition, including the proliferation of BSBY and ARRC’s guidance that term SOFR will be available by early-August.

Jun 9

23 min 37 sec

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of June 7th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Jun 4

24 min 10 sec

Margaret Kerins along with Ian Lyngen, Greg Anderson, Stephen Gallo, Dan Krieter, Ben Reitzes, Dan Belton and Ben Jeffery from BMO’s FICC Macro Strategy team to bring you their discussion of the market’s pricing of inflation risk and the richness in money markets and what these themes imply for US and Canadian rates, high quality spreads and foreign exchange.

Jun 1

29 min 42 sec

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of June 1st, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

May 28

20 min 47 sec