Payne Points of Wealth

Ryan Payne

Welcome to the Payne Points of Wealth: The podcast that addresses all the pain points that come with creating your wealth, growing your wealth, and sustaining your wealth. Hosted by the Family Wealth Experts of Payne Capital Management, Bob, Ryan & Chris Payne. On a weekly basis, they deliver timely strategies and solutions for the pain points that come with building, preserving and managing your wealth.

All Episodes

Inflation is hitting 40 year highs and investors are aggressively jumping into the market to make up for what they’re losing. But is that the best approach? Other investors are keeping their powder dry by holding cash… but history has proven that holding cash is a losing proposition from the start. How can you hedge against inflation effectively? This episode is focused on answering that question, and not based on opinion, but on facts that have come to light through the course of history. Find out what your only real hedge against inflation is, on this episode. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... High inflation after a 40 year bull market… is this the new normal? [1:13] Why stocks, equities, and dividends are the only hedge against inflation [4:26] Diversification is the only way to succeed in long-term investing [8:19] The Tipping Point: Proactively protecting yourself against bubbles popping [10:10] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:29] Inflation like we’ve not seen for 40 years, and bullish investors respond After a season of all-time market highs we’re seeing inflation spike due to a number of factors. The response from investors is that everybody seems to be getting into the market, but is that wise? As Warren Buffet has been known to say, “Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” It could be time for investors to heed his advice. What is a good inflation hedge? Stocks, equities, and dividends, with statistics as proof that it’s the right approach. Listen to hear the facts.  This week on the tipping point: Proactively protect yourself against market bubbles There’s only one thing in the stock market that doesn’t change: investor behavior. It’s always the case that people think they can correctly guess when stocks are going to continue to rise and when they are going to fall. That’s one of the main reasons why people become indignant any time you suggest that their favorite investment is a bubble. The insist they will get out before it crashes, but as far as we can tell, there’s still no reliable way to know when that is going to be. Everyone is afraid of missing out, so they ride those bubbles much longer than they should, fail to diversify and invest wisely, and lose a ton when the bubble pops. Boring investments are the way to go, because over time your portfolio will consistently grow when you keep your portfolio in solid, proven stocks. This week’s hidden facts of finance Rivian is one of the bright so-called stars in the electric vehicle industry and its market cap is an unbelievable $140 billion. It makes no sense. Futures and options are proven ways to get burned for most investors. The dollar compared to the S&P 500: the dollar has no leg to stand on. Going to the mall is a thing again. Listen to hear all the details on these topics.  Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Nov 24

23 min 47 sec

What's up! It's episode 60 of Payne Points of Wealth! Hard to believe we're 60 episodes in! We've got late nineties stock market fever. Literally, everything is going up right now. We've got a huge melt-up. It's starting to look a lot like the late nineties when those internet stocks were just rocking. We're going to tell you why we think this is a lot like the late nineties. We'll hit on what you have to be careful about because there are bubbles forming, what you need to avoid in your portfolio and inflation. On the tipping point today, we're going to talk about financial sabotage. What are you doing right now that's sabotaging your path to financial independence. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Never seen a market like this [1:43] As good as it gets [5:25] The Tipping Point [9:50] Don’t allow your risk tolerance to fluctuate with how well your portfolio performs [12:11] Greed takes over fear [15:15] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:29] Could it get any better for the economy? Profits are extremely strong right now. Look at the third-quarter earnings, it's just been through the roof. Next quarter’s earnings are going to be good again too. We've got a hiring frenzy going on. Unemployment's coming down precipitously. We have all these people that have come off unemployment benefits getting back in the workforce and wages are going up. What's better than that. You're getting a raise at work, you have more money to spend and the fed isn't raising rates anytime soon, they're going to keep the party going. This is probably as good as it gets when it comes to the outlook for the economy. This week on the tipping point: Financial sabotage One thing that we've found managing all the accounts that we manage is a lot of times people put themselves in a position of financial sabotage. They make decisions that hurt them on their path to financial independence. So in this episode, we talk about some of the things that we find that people do that you need to avoid so you don't sabotage your financial life.  Don’t stalk your portfolio. Investing is hard, it's counterintuitive, when there's good news sometimes the market sells off. If there's bad news, the market goes up. It doesn't seem to make sense. If you're watching every day, checking your portfolio balance every day, it's a recipe for disaster. I can't tell you how many short-term focus investors have failed in the long run because they couldn't handle the pressure. Don’t allow your risk tolerance to fluctuate with how well your portfolio performs. The whole idea of diversification is that you're going to have something that's not working. If everything's working at the same time, then everything will also be NOT working at the same time. This week’s hidden facts of finance Cryptocurrency, an asset class (if we want to call it that) younger than the iPhone is closing in on $3 trillion in market cap. That’s equal to about a quarter of the world's mined gold or the entire money supply of the United Kingdom. That's insane.  The resulting labor crunch has boosted wages and emboldened workers to fight for a better deal. Work stoppages in 2021 have already surpassed last year's 10 and it may be the start of a trend reversal. Work stoppages numbered 145 in 1981 dropping to 5 in 2009, it looks like unions could be back.  Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Nov 17

23 min 29 sec

What's up? It's episode 59 of Payne Points of Wealth and supply chains around the world are easing up. COVID cases globally are going down and profits are at an all-time record high as stock markets around the world are hitting all-time record highs. The question is, is it all going to fall off a cliff? Is this all too good to be true or is the economy going to continue chugging along? We'll look at some long-term tailwinds that could keep this economy moving into the roaring twenties along with your financial independence plan. We're also going to talk about those specific variables that you need to address in your financial life to make sure you're financially sound. You don't want to miss it. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... A rockin’ market! [1:11] Everybody is doing well [3:36] Tailwinds for the economy [6:43] Don’t confuse brains in a bull market [9:03] The Tipping Point [11:07] Having a tax-efficient portfolio [13:21] How long do you expect to live? [16:11] How lucky do you feel? [18:19] Hidden Facts of Finance [21:23] Economic tailwinds There’s all this talk about how we're going to have a big burst of spending coming out of the pandemic and then it's just going to cool off again. Well, millennials are 25% of the population and are essentially going into their peak spending and earning years. Historically, the ages 45-55 tend to be when you spend the most money. You have household formation, kids, and more big-ticket items that you're buying. With the largest cohort of any population in America going right into that, it’s like the baby boomers back in the 80s', it’s going to lead to a lot of spending. Then you have this huge infrastructure bill coming down the line and when that passes that will be even more spending. Top all that off with the massive amount of inventories businesses are trying to build back up...doesn’t sound like a slowdown is anywhere in the near future. This week on the tipping point: Customizable variables When it comes to building financial plans for the families we manage here at PCM everyone's situation is a little bit different. So in this episode, we discussed some of the variables you need to customize for your unique plan.  When it comes to financial planning and your portfolio, sometimes we become more enamored with the value of the portfolio. Especially with our 360 portal where you can see how much you're worth. It's kind of fun as the market goes up to check and see how you did each day, week, or month—but it's not just about appreciation—you've got to have the income.  How much does your principal generate in income after taxes and inflation? It's so important to sit down with your advisor every year and look at what's important to you. What are your variables? What do you want to accomplish this year? Do you want to take a big trip? Do you want to give money to your grandchildren's education plans? Backing into those numbers is the most important thing to figure out how much income you're gonna need. Listen to the episode to find out which variables you should address. This week’s hidden facts of finance In the most recent quarter, Spain added 5.6 percentage points to its headline growth. French household spending jumped a whopping 21.5% annualized contributing to 10.5 percentage points to their growth rate. In fact, third-quarter growth results for the entire Eurozone outpaced the good old USA, well maybe not outpace as much as they're finally catching up because they're now playing out of the same playbook. They realize they've got to open their economies. It's not the end of the world. Spain, France, England, Germany, are all full of ordinary people, just like our country, and they want to get out and spend again. They want to live life! Europe is booming. The global economy is booming. We're seeing stocks go up all over the world so make sure you don't have all your money just in the S&P 500 because there are plenty of opportunities outside the US. Go global! Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Nov 10

25 min 59 sec

What's up it's episode 58 pain points of wealth and profits this earnings season are phenomenal! Companies are beating estimates by a landslide. It doesn't matter that supply chain issues or labor costs are going up. It's all inflationary. But guess what? These companies just keep raising prices on you and me, which is making their profits go through the roof. So what does this mean between now and the end of the year? As the market continues to go higher are we going to finally get that correction in stocks that big sell-off that Wall Street has been telling us about? We're going to give you our vantage point, exactly what you should be doing strategically between now and the end of the year. On the tipping point today we're going to drop some wisdom on you. When it comes to your financial independence plan, we're going to give you some insights that you can apply to your portfolio, your financial plan, to get you on track, to be financially independent. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... When’s the big drop coming? [1:24] Pipeline conspiracies? [3:41] The faults in being priced to perfection [6:49] The Tipping Point [10:39] Crisis is opportunity riding on a dangerous wind [11:15] A feather in the hand is better than a bird in the air [13:05] Accept something you cannot change and you'll feel better [14:43] A foolish man listens to his heart [16:33] Don't let statistics do a number on you [17:26] Hidden Facts of Finance [20:14] Pipeline conspiracies? It's amazing how the world changes, all of a sudden, how do we not have enough oil supply? The world's been awash in oil then all of a sudden it’s not?. I love a good conspiracy, and a lot of people are saying, or the “experts” are saying that the Biden administration is limiting production. I have a different theory on this. Perhaps there's just worldwide collusion going on. All the big energy companies are saying "You know what? We make a lot more money when oil is over $80 a barrel. Let’s just chill out on the production side of things. We will slow down on producing oil right now because when the price is at $30, that's terrible for profits." So I suspect there is big manipulation going on and I think it's all of these global oil companies who are very happy to slow down the production and keep those prices up! This week on the tipping point: Financial Fortune Cookies When you go to the Chinese restaurant nothing's better than getting that fortune cookie at the end and reading the wisdom within. Let’s open up your fortune cookie and apply it to your financial life and goals to be financially independent because there’s nothing funnier than getting a fortune cookie to help you run your portfolio! Crisis is opportunity riding on a dangerous wind. Sounds great but it reminds me of what Warren Buffet says, it is wise for investors to be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. We're emotional human beings. It's so easy to panic when prices are going down or when you have that fear of missing out and overload your portfolio on what's going up the most. A feather in the hand is better than a bird in the air. I think the point is it's better to protect what you have than trying to reach for the stars and putting everything that you have at risk. Accept something you cannot change and you'll feel better. I think right now is a perfect example of that. We have so much uncertainty about our taxes going up. Are they going to pass another $2 trillion in stimulus? Is the dollar going to be worthless in a couple of years? Is inflation just going to destroy our purchasing power? Is the dollar going to be so weak that we can't afford anything? The list goes on and on. A foolish man listens to his heart. Don't use your gut feelings when it comes to investing. It's never right. This week’s hidden facts of finance Home prices are up a record 19.5% in the past year, according to Case Shiller data. However, home prices were removed from the official prices index, owing to political and statistical issues. If they were still included, inflation would be running at a 10% clip rivaling the early 80s'. It just goes to show you real estate is really inflated right now. Inflation is real and not transitory and if you've been listening to the Payne Points of Wealth Podcast you have known that for a year! Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Nov 3

25 min 19 sec

What's up! It's episode 57 of Payne Points of Wealth and the all-asset melt-up is upon us! Everything is going up right now. Oil prices are surging to all-time record highs every single day. Bitcoin, all-time record highs. Stocks, all-time record highs. What should you be doing right now? Is this a big bubble? Can it continue? We're gonna break down exactly what's going on in the market. We're also going to talk about your financial independence. Do you have a date when you want to be financially free or retired? We're going to show you exactly how to pick that date, how to build that plan, and get you on track for your financial independence plan.  You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Bad, bad, bad...BS! [1:05] Economics 101 [3:44] Bitcoin confusion [4:58] Stocks are backed by real assets [7:44] The Tipping Point [9:40] Pick a date vs picking an amount [11:06] It's not just accumulating wealth, it's investing that wealth properly [13:26] Following emotional market whims [16:09] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:58] Do you want to be punished at the pump or in your portfolio? A year, year and a half ago, we had a -$37 a barrel print on oil. Why? There was no demand! The economy was shut down globally because of the pandemic. Nobody needed oil. It was sitting out in tankers in the ocean with nowhere to go. Now it's $85 a barrel. Why? Because demand is strong. The economy's booming, not just here but globally. When the economy does well, oil usage goes up. When you have supply and demand the price goes up. Guess what goes up with oil? The stock market. You want oil to go up, not because you want to spend a lot of money at the gas pump, but because you want to see your portfolio go up. So let's go oil higher, higher, higher! This week on the tipping point: When is it safe to live off of your portfolio? Let's talk about retirement. In this day and age, it's different. If you love what you do, you'll never work a day in your life as somebody once said. We think it's more important to think about financial independence and having a big pile of go-to-hell money, where you can decide to do what you want to do every day. A lot of times we talk about wanting to have X amount of money at a certain date. Whether it's a million dollars or 3 million, whatever that arbitrary number is.  It's more important to pick that date because for everybody that pile of money will be different. Maybe you have a pension, or social security coming in, what if you have an inheritance, so it really just depends on you specifically. So first you've got to decide l when is that gonna be? Is that five years from now, 10 years from now? If you're a millennial, maybe you want to take a break from working for a couple of years to travel and then go back to work. We have to solve for all of these problems, but you have to begin with the end in mind and that's picking that date before you think about the pile of cash. This week’s hidden facts of finance When Robinhood last reported quarterly earnings, the trading platform said it had 22.5 million funded accounts. The vast majority of those are considered active. Up 130% from a year earlier, that's a lot of people getting into the stock market. A lot of people are investing in the stock market for the first time and like everyone who starts out as a newbie investor usually they pick some very speculative ideas and end up losing money. So Robinhood is probably pretty appropriately named, taking money from the poor and giving to the rich wall street executives who don't care about you. At some point, they'll learn and give us a call. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Oct 27

24 min 15 sec

What's up! It's episode 56 of Payne Points of Wealth and earning season is upon us. For all intents and purposes, it should be a blowout again this quarter, company's profits should be through the roof. We have the banks reporting this week so far, JP Morgan's reported, BlackRock blew out the estimates. These are all good omens, but funny enough, investors are extremely bearish right now with plenty of cash on the sidelines, waiting for a correction. We're gonna address that today. We're gonna tell you what you should be doing with your money. How to play the next move in the market, how they'll play the rest of the year as inflation continues to kick in. Oil, it's over $80 a barrel! At a seven-year high! Folks. Inflation. Is. Real! It's here. We've been telling you about it. We're gonna talk about that. On the Tipping Point today we're going to talk about maybe you've done a great job saving for your financial independence plan, but what are you missing right now that you need to add into your plan to make sure that you're completely financially free. We're gonna break it down. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Everybody’s worried about…? [1:31] Is a melt-up coming? [3:07] A great example of how markets work [6:07] The Tipping Point [10:14] Too much risk is still risky[12:36] The ticking tax timebomb [15:56] It’s ok to live a little [17:22] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:57] A real-life example of how the markets work Here's a great example of how markets work. If you look at what we call the rotation trade—when growth stocks suddenly stop leading the market and value stocks pick up—all of a sudden financials, energy, these stocks are doing better. If you go back 12 months, you’d see that's when that transition started to happen. Long before anybody recognized it. Long before any advisors or strategists or economists called it. If you look back at the trailing 12-month numbers, energy is up almost 100% versus growth up just 20%. It's amazing how the markets are able to see these things months to a year ahead of time. This week on the tipping point: Covering your bases We've found that a lot of you that come to see us have done such a great job on the savings front. You've done a great job with your budget, you have minimal debt, you've learned to save, and you've built up a nice net worth. What we have found is that you don't always have all your bases covered. So, we thought we would talk about some of the problems you face, even if you're a diligent saver or if you have a sizable net worth at this point, that's getting you closer to that financial independence.  Number one on the list is having too much in cash!  When you're saving money, a lot of us think about saving money in cash. The problem with that is it's getting less than zero. If you think about your savings in terms of super savings, you want that money to work for you. Sitting in cash is like having a lot of employees that you pay, but none of them work. Check out the episode to hear what other bases you should be covering! This week’s hidden facts of finance This month the energy department released a study that says as much as 40% of US electricity could be produced by solar in 2035, 45% by 2050, but today solar only provides about 4% of overall energy. That's a gigantic leap, right? Renewables are the way of the future, but they're coming a lot later than everybody thinks. Today it costs more than a penny to make a penny. According to the US Mint, it costs them roughly 1.70 cents per coin. Warren Buffet, considered the world's most successful investor, made 99.6% of his 87.5 billion fortune after the age of 52. as much as 72 billion of his wealth came after he turned 65. He started investing at the tenure age of 11 and paid his first taxes at age of 13. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Oct 20

23 min 50 sec

Welcome back! It's episode 55 of Payne Points of Wealth and inflationary pressure is mounting. We've literally had the 10-year treasury up above 1.5% as central banks around the world are starting to indicate that they're going to start to taper and potentially raise interest rates sometime next year. In addition to that, we've got oil prices surging around the world right now, a natural gas shortage in Europe, and costs are going up because oil literally runs everything. So what do you make of the current economic environment? Meanwhile, we still have fighting on Capitol Hill as they're looking to spend trillions and raise taxes. It's a tumultuous time but we're going to give you the game plan you need right now to succeed. On the Tipping Point today we'll talk about how your financial independence plan is like having a great flight plan to make sure you can create the most secure financial situation for yourself. Don’t miss it! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Where are the corrections happening? [1:27] Mutating economy [4:26] Where the economists always get it wrong [6:53] The Tipping Point [10:30] Being prepared for turbulence [15:40] Hidden Facts of Finance [21:12] A mutating economy bodes well for those in the ‘stuff’ making industry We talk about the fear of this virus mutating. Well, we mutate. The economy, the global economy, it all mutates. We've changed how we do things and the economies are booming as a result of mutating away from the way things used to be done. Now, there are some near-term problems like supply chain disruptions. But if you're making stuff right now, if you have stuff in your inventory, you can charge whatever you want for it. What a great place to be. Those in the stuff manufacturing business aren’t sitting at home twiddling their thumbs, they’re working 24/7 to get more stuff produced and manufactured so they can sell it! Meanwhile, all this has inflationary implications, but nothing like we had in the 70s’. We're going to have higher inflation, it will be a little stickier, but we will probably end up at 2.5-3%, nothing to be afraid of, but something you have got to hedge your portfolio for. This week on the tipping point: Financial flight plans Like anything in life, it's important to have a plan, especially when you're flying, you have to have a flight plan. Your flight plan will be dictated by what the weather's like, the winds, how many passengers you have, how much fuel you have to take. It's important before you take off to have a good idea of not only where you're going but how you intend to get there. That same principle applies to your investment portfolio. It's not about making the most money, it’s about getting to your destination as safely as possible.  The other thing about a flight plan is you're going to have turbulence along the way that comes out of the blue. That's what happens with the markets, like the pandemic, no one could have predicted it. It came out of the blue, the drop in the markets came out of nowhere. It's not how you react in the moment, it's about having that proactive plan ahead of time. You have to be prepared for turbulence in your portfolio. Most of you aren’t and you don’t even realize it. If the world falls apart tomorrow, you're not protected. That's why we always take your portfolio through that stress test.  Is your portfolio built and designed to get through that turbulence? This week’s hidden facts of finance The total value of US stocks is now over $51 trillion, a $16 trillion dollar rise from pre-pandemic values. To put that $16 trillion advance into perspective—it took over 200 years from the founding of the earliest US stock exchange in 1790 to the 2007-09 financial crisis for the stock market to create its first $16 trillion in value. Wow! So that's an amazing amount of money in the course of a very short period of time, during a pandemic and a global shutdown to boot! If there's any doubt as to where you should be investing your money, with a $16 trillion increase in just 18 months, sounds like the stock market is the place to be. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Oct 13

25 min 23 sec

It's episode 54 of Payne Points of Wealth and the FED finally admitted it! Inflation is not as transitory as they initially thought—as we've been telling on this podcast, week after week. Interest rates moved 20% last week and we're starting to see the bond market move...in the wrong direction! Supply chains around America are a mess right now! You can't hire enough truckers. You can't hire enough people to work at the ports. We're seeing a domino effect and huge delays on all products and services as they move slowly across the country. What does this mean for you? What does this mean for your portfolio? We're going to give you our view of exactly what's happening in the economy right now and what you need to be doing strategically. Money's moving out of tech stocks and into those old-school cyclical stocks that we love. In addition to that on the Tipping Point today, we're going to talk about your financial advisor. Are they really, really nice, but they don't give you good advice? We're going to tell you exactly how to handle that. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Supply chain problems causing trouble [1:32] Not just inflation on products [4:41] Shifting dynamics [7:49] The Tipping Point [10:54] Not having a full picture [13:02] Breaking things down so it’s understandable to you [15:41] Hidden Facts of Finance [21:37] What’s wreaking havoc on the economy but not the market? Companies can't find enough workers, even if the ports were open 24/7, there's not enough people to man them, there are ships sitting for weeks waiting to unload their cargo. When one part of the supply chain gets messed up, maybe a truck doesn't show up for a shipment on time, it just affects everything! It's just wreaking havoc on the entire economy right now. Inventory is running low, semiconductors are backlogged, steel and lumber are going up like crazy. People are building everywhere. Who knows what people will fill these homes with, maybe beach chairs and sleeping bags because you can't get any furniture or appliances.  With all of this going on, the market doesn't seem to care because here's the thing about the market... the market looks forward! All of this is priced in already. We are getting a little bit of corrective action, but that's primarily because the FED didn't say transitory last week, which means they are starting to believe—like we've been telling you—that inflation is going up. So interest rates are going up and hopefully, all of you listened because those bond funds are dropping like rocks! You have to get into fixed income, not bond funds.  This week on the tipping point: Nice advisors with bad service Do you have a nice advisor who isn’t doing such a nice job? People are hesitant to make a switch for a variety of reasons. It seems easier to stay with someone because you have already made a time investment there, or they have handled so-and-so’s finance for years so they must be doing something right, or you’ve already moved from one bad advisor to this new bad advisor and it just seems like they are all the same so why bother.  We are here to tell you there are good advisors!  Good advisors are going to break things down into a simple way for you to understand it. Everything we're doing here is not rocket science, if it feels like rocket science, you've got a problem. Not only should you be able to understand what's in your portfolio, you should also understand how it relates to you and the goals that you're trying to achieve. Don't go with an advisor where you get mystery investments. Check out the segment for more on what a good advisor looks like! This week’s hidden facts of finance There are 13 US corporate tax hikes on record going back to 1925, and in the ensuing 12 months, the S&P rose 9 times averaging 11.1%. On the personal income side, Congress has hiked the top bracket 14 times and the S&P rose in the next 12 months after 10 of them averaging a whopping 16.8%. Sounds like raising taxes is actually good for the market. Who would have thought?  One of the biggest fears that clients have right now is that a tax hike is going to have a negative impact on the market but based on these statistics it sounds like that's probably not going to be the reality. I think the bottom line is a bull market is going to be a bull market, regardless of short-term moves and taxes. As we've said, we know money's got to go somewhere, better be bullish than to be foolish! Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Oct 7

26 min 34 sec

It’s been a tumultuous week, with China Evergrande Group possibly going default on $300 BILLION of bonds. Is this going to be another Lehman event like the talking heads are saying? We also have the Delta variant rising around the world and impacting the decisions nations are making regarding their societies and economies… and in the U.S., the government wants to raise money by taxing you. There’s a lot going on and it has investors spooked. What should you do with your investments, if anything? And how should you handle the risks involved in a time like this? Don’t miss this episode, we’re gong to provide you our insights for handing the risks times like this bring. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... A leveraged Chinese Real Estate Company is not going to be of much concern to us [1:25] Stay on the boat even in downturns could be ahead, here’s why...[6:20] The Tipping Point: Risk — How are you set up to handle risk? [9:05] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:40] Evergrande is huge in China but in the U.S. you don’t need to be concerned 100% of our clients never heard of this “Evergrande” outfit… that’s because we have no interest in ever getting involved in leveraged Chinese Real Estate companies. We’d be going from the Penthouse to the Basement if we did, and it’s just not what we do for our clients. The hype we’re seeing in the media is overblown and the correction that’s been forecast doesn’t appear to be happening as of this episode. Even if it did come about, corrections are almost always temporary. They are typically followed by a huge record high. Remember, it’s not rocket science, there are trillions of dollars out there driving the market higher. The real power is in having a diversified portfolio. This week on the tipping point: RISK and Risk Management One of the items we deal with day after day for our 2000 clients is risk. There are many types of risk to consider, including market risk. When markets go up and up and up… and honestly, that’s when you have the most amount of risk. But that’s not typically how people think about it. And on the converse, when the market is down is when you have the least amount of risk. So if everything in your portfolio is going up, that’s a bad sign. 1999 to 2000 is a great example, when the tech bubble was going up and up and up, and then the correction came hard. It took people 15 years to break even after that, so keep clear on your diversification objectives.  Another huge risk to consider is interest rate risk. It hasn’t been a huge risk lately because interest rates have been low, and when interest rates go up, bond funds go down. Even though bonds are touted as the most stable part of your portfolio, they can fluctuate in a time like this as much as 60%. That’s not stable at all. Listen to hear about the risk inflation and lifetime expectancy bring into the mix and more!  This week’s hidden facts of finance The American public debt is ¼ larger than the economy and it’s grown substantially. Fed assets have grown 11-fold as well. Corrections happen once every 17 months typically, but the only way to win is to be in. Don’t wait for the correction. AMC Theaters attendance topped pre-pandemic numbers for the corresponding days in 2019. Definitely, the economy is reopening and it’s just getting started. Listen to hear more of the hidden facts of finance that you commonly don’t hear and oftentimes, will shock you. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for On Spotifya complimentary financial review from the Paynes See the hype about the On SpotifyEvergrande default Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris On Spotifyhttp://PayneCM.com  Follow on On SpotifyTwitter Follow on On SpotifyFacebook Follow on On SpotifyLinkedIn Subscribe on On SpotifyYouTube Follow on On SpotifyInstagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On SpotifyOn Apple Podcasts, On On SpotifyGoogle Podcasts, On Spotify

Sep 29

23 min 48 sec

Welcome back for episode 52 of Payne Points of Wealth. That’s one full year of musings from the Payne boys! We’re glad you’ve stuck around! Well, Labor Day is over and we are officially in the fall season! Cryptocurrency is apparently one of the primary currencies in El Salvador now. The world is getting crazy as always. We're starting to see a little bit of a slowdown in the economy. If you looked at the employment numbers that came out (while we're recording this), they came in weaker than expected. There's a lot of economists, a lot of strategists right now that believe we're going to an economic slowdown. We're going to give you the truth today. We're going to tell you what's really going on with the economy, and how to invest your money. On the tipping point today, we're going to play a little bit of financial jeopardy. We're going to talk about some financial terms you need to understand if you're going to get on your path to financial independence. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Does the market have to go down just because it’s September? [2:07] Big bubbles [5:20] The Tipping Point [9:03] What’s known for high fees, lack of liquidity, and misleading promises? [9:43] What requires an advisor to put a client's best interests first? [11:34] What phenomenon is eminent but no denying that it will be back eventually? [13:20] What forces retirees to drain their retirement accounts [15:38] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:56] The most powerful force of monetary and fiscal policy we've ever seen There's been $32 trillion of fiscal and monetary stimulus created since the pandemic started. $32 trillion! All the global GDP in the world, every year, is something like $93 trillion. Think about how supercharged the entire global economy is right now. It's basically on steroids. It's almost laughable that any economists or strategists would think we're going to get some sort of real sell-off because you're fighting the most powerful force of monetary and fiscal policy we've ever seen. Literally ever! That's why we're going to have big bubbles in certain areas of the economy. We have big bubbles going on right now. You just don't know when they're going to burst. This week on the tipping point: Financial Jeopardy In this episode, we play our own little game of Financial Jeopardy and talk about some critical financial terms that all our listeners really need to understand. In the spirit of Jeopardy, we're going to give you the answer and you're going to follow up with the question. Check out the episode to see if you got it right and to hear what the Payne men have to say about it. #1 It's known by many for its high fees, lack of liquidity, and misleading promises. This financial product gives the financial services world a bad name.  #2 This requires a financial advisor to put his client's best interests before his/her own. Unfortunately, not all financial professionals are governed by it. #3 This financial phenomenon is thought by some to the eminent and by others to be far off in the distance, but there's no denying that it will be back eventually. This week’s hidden facts of finance As of early August, global equity funds have seen 605 billion of inflows year to date. Now to put that in perspective, global equity funds have seen 727 billion of cumulated inflows over the last 25 years. Therefore in 2021 alone, there have been 40% higher inflows than the last 25 years combined. That's insane. If that's not a melt-up, I don't know what is. The US population increased 0.4% in 2020 to 329 million Americans marking the slowest growth rate since 1901. A falling birth rate and an aging population could portend major implications for our economy long term. You've got an aging population then fewer people going into the workforce means fewer taxes and more people for the government to have to support. Maybe people should probably start having more kids. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Sep 15

22 min 24 sec

This is episode 51 of Payne Points of Wealth. You can't stop this market. We can't stop this market. The market is literally at all-time record highs every single day. We've got some news from the FED signaling that they're not going to raise interest rates anytime soon. A very bullish time which means the world's going to stay washed in cash. The Delta variant of the coronavirus seems to be slowing down a little bit, as we're recording this. Giving us some light at the end of the tunnel with what's going on with the economy. We're going to talk about what we see, what's going on, and where you should invest your money. On the tipping point today, we're going to talk about literally every age of your financial life, whether you're 20, 30, 40, 50, 60. What you need to be thinking about at every stage of the journey to make sure you're going to be financially independent. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Record highs & a re-rotation [1:20] Pop quiz! What is the best performing asset class over a 100 year period? [3:31] The market isn’t in the now [5:54] The Tipping Point [11:11] When you’re in your 20’s [11:45] When you’re in your 30’s [13:58] When you’re in your 40’s [15:56] When you’re in your 50’s and beyond [17:41] Hidden Facts of Finance [23:18] This week on the tipping point: Investing over a lifetime Financial planning is a journey, not a destination. Here at Payne Capital Management, we've found that each age represents an important landmark as it relates to your financial independence. What should you be thinking about at those different stages of your financial journey? Here’s a quick look, but listen to the episode for a full breakdown! Your twenties are the hardest time to invest because you're trying to buy big things like a car or a house, and you're just starting out in your career. But, it's the best time to get into the habit of automating your savings. Small investments in your 20s will pay off BIGTIME down the road. In your 30s you typically start to create a little more wealth. You're a little further along in your career, money starts to get bigger, and the decisions you have to make get a bit more serious. You’ll want to have a plan not just for your creation of wealth, but also for the preservation of wealth. You should also create an estate plan, you want to have a will when you're in your 30s.  When you get into your 40s, the stakes only get higher. This is when you should start thinking about streamlining your finances. You may have a couple of 401k plans from different employers. Perhaps an advisor who's giving you advice on your IRAs, maybe a brokerage account with somebody else. Consolidating all those finances and getting a streamlined game plan is the key when you get into your 40s.  Your 50's are what we call the financial red zone. It's a time where you're able to maximize your contributions. Sometimes you can't do it when you're younger, so in your 50's, you want to make sure that you catch up with everything and that you're prepared for the day where you're not going to have that paycheck coming in. In your 60's you're retired or getting close. Your 401k or retirement plan is likely a huge part of your net worth. The nice thing is if you're 59-1/2, for a lot of plans, you can do an in-service distribution. You can roll the money out of the plan with no tax, put it into an individual retirement account for yourself, and invest in a more customized way. You'll also want to start looking into things like Roth conversions because at age 72 you have to start taking money out of those pre-tax accounts. This week’s hidden facts of finance If the US taxes all Americans at 100% there will still be an $8 trillion federal budget deficit. I think our deficit is a problem. What an inconvenient truth! If they confiscate all the billionaires' money today, we won't even meet the current spending proposals. That's very unfortunate when you run out of billionaires. If the billionaires don't have any money to pay the taxes, guess who they'll be coming for? Taxes are going higher. So do your tax planning this year. Don't wait.  Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Sep 8

27 min 16 sec

What's up! It's episode 50 of Payne Points of Wealth, hard to believe we're 50 episodes in and we've been doing this podcast for a year. We thank you for your support. As always, there is a lot going on right now in the economy and the stock market. We have the Delta variants still running rampant around the world. Is it going to slow the economy down is the big question on the investor's mind? As we're recording this right now, the government's looking to pass trillions of dollars. What impact is that going to have on the economy? What impact does that have on you and how do you position yourself to win right now as the market continues to go higher? We're going to break it down for you. We have a special guest on the tipping point, Kristan Vermeulen founder and CEO of Knotical Public Relations. She’s also the podcast host of Makers of the USA. She talks with business owners all across the country. She's going to give us the pulse on that so we can get a better idea of what's going on in the economy. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Never trust the consensus [1:30] Are we coming into a melt-up? [4:18] Which market are they talking about? [6:12] The only place there is no opportunity [8:35] The Tipping Point [10:52] What is a maker? [12:42] When unemployment benefits end will we see more job applicants? [15:24] Will small businesses keep struggling, retire, or sell out to large corps? [19:22] Hidden Facts of Finance [24:24] Never trust what every investor believes in unison In a year where volatility is basically non-existent. The market was actually down last week. Like 1%, if we can even call that down at all. That just seems to be the theme, there's no sell-off. One thing we've talked about a lot on this podcast is never trust the consensus. Never trust what every strategist and every investor believes in unison. I hear it over and over again that we're in the weakest part of the year, until Halloween, and that the market's probably going to sell 10-15%, the market needs to have a correction. When everybody's looking for the same thing, we know it doesn't happen and this market just won't let you in. There's a lot of people in cash sweating it out right now. This week on the tipping point: The pulse of America Our guest Kristan Vermeulen founder and CEO of Knotical Public Relations is also the host of a really cool podcast, Makers of the USA. Basically, Kristan goes out and talks to a lot of business owners. American-made, niche type of companies. She explains that her definition of a maker is a broad term, you have your woodworkers, metal workers, folks that make products but she also considers a maker to be a musician, photographer, or videographer. The Payne point that has been such a challenge amongst these makers and their mom and pop shops is they have to utilize their personal assets or personal funds to stay afloat. And like many businesses they are having a hard time with the scarcity of materials and finding workers. Unlike big companies in this community, they find it scary to increase their product prices because they're afraid of losing customers. They don't want to miss out on the customers they already have because some sales are better than no sales. Check out the episode for the full scoop from Kristan Vermeulen! This week’s hidden facts of finance In June, the median home price was a record $363,000. Up 23% year over year. Better than the S&P 500! Unbelievable, with all this money a wash around the world, everything's being bid up, whether it's real estate, stocks, businesses, everything but gold actually. But it isn't better than the S&P because the S&P pays a dividend. Last I checked, every month I'm paying real estate taxes. I'm paying utility bills. A home's great, but it's a place to live. As an investment, I'll take the S&P 500 any day of the week. Resources & People Mentioned Kristan Vermeulen Knotical Public Relations and host of Makers of the USA Nick Rossi and his episode on Makers of the USA See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Sep 1

28 min 44 sec

What's up! It's episode 49 of Payne Points of Wealth and the world is in flux. We've got the Delta variant of the Coronavirus raging, which is causing more lockdowns and disruptions in the economy. The Taliban has taken over Afghanistan, adding geopolitical risk to the global economy. In addition to that, we've got infighting on Capitol Hill. What else is new? They're looking to spend trillions of dollars. Are our taxes going to go through the roof? Is inflation just going to run wild? We're going to address that today. On the tipping point, we're going to talk about financial disasters with your financial plan. What mistakes you don't want to make, that you need to avoid at all costs. Things we've seen over and over again that you need to avoid. We're going to break it down. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... What our podcast & the market have in common [1:15] If everything is priced to perfection and there's no risk, then there's no opportunity [4:34] The French market is kicking the NASDAQ’s butt! [7:39] The Tipping Point [10:08] Is your 401k run by a fiduciary? [12:13] Keeping your risk in check with a balanced portfolio [15:17] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:48] Where to place your concerns The market always climbs a wall of worry. There's always gotta be a headwind because if everything is priced to perfection and there's no risk, then there's no opportunity. COVID of course is a risk right now, but we've already seen that movie, the market doesn't drop on the same news twice.  Meanwhile, you've got this infrastructure bill, which has gone from 3.5 trillion dollars down to a half-trillion dollars of new spending spread over 10 years. That's not even going to move the meter a little bit on the market, but we do have inflation. Inflation is something we should all be concerned about. This week on the tipping point: Financial disasters We’re blowing the whistle on the biggest scandal in the history of the financial market since the 1900s, the mutual fund industry. We all know from every study that's been done that no money manager can outperform their underlying index. So what do they do? They take money managers and sell mutual funds and they churn the account every year, charging you more, giving you a lower return, and having you pay more taxes. If that's not a scandal, I don't know what is. The other big issue we see right now, being in a big booming bull market is a lot of times the risk in your portfolio becomes outsized and you don't even know it. Because the market has gone up by 100% since last March when you were 50 or 60% in the market, but now you're 80, 90% in the market because there’s been so much growth. You've got to keep that risk in check. At some point, we will get a huge market sell-off or a crash and if you're not allocated correctly ahead of time, you're out of luck. Check on it right now, while things are going well, that's the time you have to make those decisions. This week’s hidden facts of finance In the 70s, the inflation of that decade was largely a result of the explosion in energy prices. That, to a major extent, reflected oil-producing countries refusing to be paid in the ever appreciating US dollar. Could it happen again? A lot of bad things happened in the seventies like bell-bottoms and leisure suits and Bob's got pictures to prove it, but there was definitely inflation. In fact, there was hyperinflation, but a lot of it had to do with lack of productivity growth. So it wasn't just the oil companies not producing enough oil. There were a lot of other things going on that led to hyperinflation, high-interest rates, and basically the biggest bull market in bonds. You may be hearing a lot of arguments that we're going into the 70s again with hyperinflation. We are going to see inflation but productivity, which is a big component of what's happening right now, is going through the roof. This is not like the 70s, that's a positive that says this economy is a lot different and a lot better than it was in the 1970s.  Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Aug 28

24 min 54 sec

What's up it's episode 48 pain points of wealth. And as summer's rolling along here so is the economic data. We see unemployment down to 5.4% and the economy isn’t even fully reopened yet. It's a phenomenal number! We have the unemployment benefits dropping off in September, what's that going to mean for company profits and for the economy? And inflation, inflation numbers, still looking strong, no matter what the government tells you. We're going to talk about all that today. We’re also talking about the economic data, what you can expect from earnings this year, and what you should be doing with your money! On the tipping point, where we pinpoint the Payne point having the biggest impact on your wealth, we're going to give you our rules for investing. Rules that you can apply to your portfolio to make sure that you're on your path to financial independence! Check it out! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... More jobs than workers to fill them! [1:15] Bullishness is cooled off and a bull market doesn’t let you in [3:46] Higher stakes [6:28] The Tipping Point [9:08] The age old, excuse why we don't want to diversify [14:20] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:42] Time passes. Markets operate. Neither cares how you think. We recently had a client that had quite a bit of cash accumulated but didn't want us to invest it because they'd like to have some money on the sidelines in case this market pulls back. We had to explain that they're getting less than a 1% return in the money market. That they have no idea what's going to happen in the future. What if it never happens? Were they just going to let it sit on the sidelines forever?  That's the sentiment of not only our clients but a lot of the investing public. In a big booming bull market, the biggest problem is that it doesn't let you in. There are so many professional money managers, high net worth investors, and under-invested bears and bulls who are sitting on the sidelines waiting to get the dip that came last March. They're thinking they’re going to buy stocks when they're cheap because they missed the opportunity to get in when they should have.  That's why you always have to have a strategy. Always be fully invested. Always be invested based on your goals because the market doesn't accommodate. Time passes. Markets operate. Neither cares how you think. And if you're not in, you are missing out! This week on the tipping point When it comes to the finances of the families we advise, we have some definitive rules that we apply to every financial plan that we work on. Let’s discuss one of the top principles that listeners can apply to their own financial planning and investing. That being, when it comes to investing, there's no reward without risk but if it seems too good to be true, it probably is. That's why we have bubbles. People would rather invest in something that's bubblicious that sounds so good, so sexy, so hot, how could you lose? There's tremendous risk in SPACs, crypto, and hedge funds! Anything that can go up big can go down big. Crypto is a great example of that. We've seen a wild roller coaster ride in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. However, it was only a few years ago in 2017 when it went down 82%. And you’d be foolish to think that any asset class that can go up hundreds of percent, can't go down 80, 90% as well and that it can't happen several times. The opposite is also true in types of investments where they guarantee a certain return. But the reality is that that return may not keep up with inflation. So you sacrifice longer-term returns for “safety”. This week’s hidden facts of finance With nearly 3/4 of US workers fully vaccinated, many companies are trying to get workers back in person. However, based on a recent survey, about 40% of employees say they'll resign if they have to go back into the office five days a week. I really find it surprising that companies are pushing for people to be back in the office because productivity has gone through the roof. That's a hidden fact of finance that clients I've shared that with are surprised to hear, that productivity actually went up. But think about it. You're not sitting in traffic waiting to get to the office. You're not in the airport, flying out to see a client. Eventually, we're going to do more face-to-face meetings, but I think we have this hybrid workspace going on forever. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Aug 18

23 min 21 sec

It's episode 47 of Payne Points of Wealth and it's rinse, wash, repeat as earnings just keep coming in better and better as of this recording. Tech companies are coming out with earnings this week, and they're just blowing the doors off estimates. No surprises there. Meanwhile, this new variant of the COVID virus is running rampant around the globe. Is that going to slow economic growth? Is that going to be a problem for the stock market? And Bitcoin is having a revival. Is Bitcoin the currency of the future? Maybe it is now. We're going to break it all down for you. On the tipping point today, we're going to talk about mindless diversification. What mindless ways do you diversify your money that is slowing progress to your goals? We're going to tell you exactly how to diversify your money. We've got a great show for you, check it out. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... A bull market waits for no one [1:17] Financial engineering [3:36] Negativity about good news [5:27] Supply & demand [8:31] The Tipping Point [10:55] You don’t want an all or none strategy [13:08] Overlap, a risk hot spot [16:57] Hidden Facts of Finance [20:43] What investing is NOT... You may think investing is about making money or outperforming. It's not. It's about getting that return on investment that you need to achieve to get to your goals. That's why we created the A to B approach and it's at point A where you build that foundation of passive income streams that you have to incorporate into your plan. Because you have to make the right decisions. You can make some really bad decisions on the most important income streams of your life, but do you want to? This week on the tipping point: Mindless Diversification One of the most critical aspects of anyone's financial plan is income. Not only do you have to have an income plan, but is your income diversified? As we know from the 2000 or so families that we manage at our firm mindless diversification is mindless. Not only is it mindless but when you have mindless diversification, it's a minefield. You may think you have a lot of different investments and that you actually have true diversification. However, as we know Wall Street loves to sell you what's working the best, in many different forms. You may own a growth fund over here and it has a different name on it than the other growth fund you own over there, but they are all the same. Or owning something like cryptocurrency and growth stocks, a lot of times, because they're working at the same time when the music stops, they're probably all going to stop working at the same time as well. And that's not true diversification. This week’s hidden facts of finance The housing market's fundamentals are strong from the explosion in births around 33 years ago, consumers born then are entering their peak years for starting families and buying homes. The current situation is nothing like the bubble of the 2000s when one person was buying four houses as speculation. There's a generation that's bigger and more impactful than the boomers. They're no longer on the couch in their parents' basement. They're buying homes. They're making big money.  One out of every three new clients that come through our door is a millennial. It's an ongoing bull market with the biggest generation, since Bob's favorite, the baby boomers. It also stands in complete contrast to all the videos out there talking about a big real estate crash coming. Based on that supply-demand demographics right now, we're probably not going to see some sort of housing crash. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Aug 11

25 min 11 sec

What's up! It's episode 46 of Payne Points of Wealth and it was a crazy week on the street of dreams. We had a mini sell-off or mini correction on Monday as markets looked like they were ready to crash, but markets were marching higher by Tuesday. Earning seasons got off to an awesome start! Company’s earnings are blowing away estimates, Economic data keeps coming in stronger and stronger. Is the party going to continue? What's going to happen between now and the end of the year? We're going to give you our viewpoint on exactly what's going on right now. On the tipping point today, we're going to talk about financial catastrophes. What could derail your entire financial plan? What do you need to be aware of to avoid any sort of disaster in your financial life? We're going to give you our blueprint for that. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Delta variant headlines driving the market [3:22] Expect unexpected booms [5:48] Everything is at a peak. Are stocks at a peak too? [7:47] The Tipping Point [11:03] Losing a spouse and access to your finances [11:59] Taking more risk than necessary [16:46] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:36] Valleys in the mountains Last time we recorded this podcast the market was at all-time record high. Here we are a week later recording the podcast and the market is at an all-time record high. What correction are you talking about?  It happened so quickly. We saw some sectors sell-off like 5%, energy was down big on Monday and you just thought, okay, here it comes. We're going to get that proverbial market correction, where markets are going to sell off between 10 and 15%. Gird your loins, as someone we know used to say, but it just didn't happen. The next day all of a sudden the market turned and it hasn't looked back.  A real-world example of this is a client called on Thursday in an absolute panic because they checked their account on Monday. How come the market's crashed? We're losing all of our money. Is this the end? And I said, did you look at your account today? They said, no, so I said look at it today and tell me what you see. They went and looked, whew, everything's back to normal. I said one cold day doesn't make a winter. This week on the tipping point: Financial catastrophes Not being involved in your finances can be a catastrophe. It seems like in every single relationship with two spouses involved, there's always one extremely interested spouse, the one who pays attention, and stays on top of everything. Then there's the spouse who isn’t, the one that doesn't care or doesn’t know. And that's a scary thing. We see this a lot. Suddenly, one spouse passes away, and the other spouse is grieving because they just lost the person they love more than anyone else in the world, and they also have to get on top of this financial mess. What we've found is there's no excuse, with all the technology we have, not to get financially organized. One of the things we use here at Payne Capital Management is our 360 Portal, which is an electronic catchall for all things financial. It's got a document storage vault. It goes so far as to allow you to add someone onto that account so they know where everything is if something were to happen to you. This week’s hidden facts of finance Domestic production of semiconductors has been declining for decades today. Only 12% of semiconductors are manufactured here in the good old USA. Taiwan Semiconductors Manufacturing Company alone makes up 56% of market share in certain global markets for advanced technologies. This is not the only thing that gets manufactured overseas. And that's why it's so important to not just be invested in the US but to also be invested overseas, especially in those emerging markets. The federal deficit is now 1.3 times the size of the GDP here in the US. That's the highest it's been since the end of World War II. Plus the US has about $20.5 trillion worth of accumulated debt. If rates rise by one percentage point, that's another $285 billion of interest expense for the US government annually. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Aug 4

21 min 50 sec

It's episode 45 of Payne Points of Wealth. As I'm recording this right now, inflation numbers are through the roof! We’ve been warning you about it. Everyone's saying inflation has been transitory, but apparently not. Inflation numbers came in way higher than expected. We're in the midst of earning season. Companies are crushing their earnings right now. So that coupled with inflation, what does it mean for you? What does it mean for your portfolio? What's our view of the economy? We're going to break it down for you today. On the tipping point, we're going to talk about your financial independence roadmap. How do you map out financial independence? We're going to give you our viewpoint—having been doing this for a collective 75 years—on how to get yourself in a position to be financially free. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... The BIG news this week [1:18] Will earnings call surprises be about labor costs and shortages? [4:37] Is the market going to crash? [7:32] The Tipping Point [9:36] Is making money a goal? [10:32] Risk is the key, only take the risk that you need [13:21] Hidden Facts of Finance [17:44] What we expect to hear from earnings calls over the next couple of weeks We're in earnings season. It's no secret earnings are going to be absolutely phenomenal. Earnings are going to blow the doors off. We expect that to happen and of course, the markets are forward-looking so it's not exactly a surprise. What the surprises are going to be— when you hear these earnings calls over the course of the next couple of weeks— is how much are their labor costs are going up? How much of the raw material costs go up and how much of those costs are going to pass on to you and me, the consumer, I'm going to guess a lot of it is going to get passed on to us. And that is simply inflationary. This week on the tipping point: Preparing more effectively and minimize the hazards on your way to becoming financially independent Over the years we have found that becoming financially independent is a journey, not the destination. So join us in this episode to hear us discuss how to prepare more effectively and minimize the hazards along the way to becoming financially independent.  Financial planning is what it's about investing with the end in mind. You would think this is only for new investors or somebody who's got a little bit of money, but it applies to everybody.  When someone comes in with money and asks "How do I invest it?" We ask "What are your goals?" But “I want to make money” is not a goal. At the end of the day, what does that mean? There's nothing tangible about it. When you invest your money without any sort of purpose to it, it's hard to stick to a strategy. Why do you need your money to grow? So that you can retire or be financially independent?  Having enough money so that you don't have to work again (unless you want to) is definitely a goal to shoot for! Check out the episode for more! This week’s hidden facts of finance A randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money based on statistical evidence. In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy. That's why over the last 10 years, 85% of all large-cap fund managers have underperformed their underlying index and these are supposed to be the pros on Wall Street. I can't imagine that an individual investor would be all that successful trying to pick stocks if the fund managers can't even do it. All the odds and probabilities are against you yet we love to pick individual stocks. Why not just own an index and win? Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Jul 21

21 min 15 sec

What's up! It's episode 44 of Payne Points of Wealth and we saw a market correction this past week or a little bit of a sell-off, but the major indices now sit at all-time highs again as I'm recording this. But the question is out there... is the market topping out? Are we starting to see a peak? Is the market ready to crash? Is this sugar high, those trillions of dollars, that the government's created finally coming to an end? We're going to break it down for you and give you our view of the rest of the year when it comes to the economy and the stock market. On the tipping point today, we're going to talk about a covered call strategy. You may have heard about this. Is this a strategy you should be thinking about with your portfolio to build wealth? We're going to break down what a covered call strategy is and our thoughts on it. Is it appropriate, not appropriate? We’re going to tell you about our new cryptocurrency BobCoin! You need BobCoin in your portfolio and we're going to tell you why! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... The correction… if you blinked you missed it [1:34] The Market is smarter than Wall Street [3:24] The biggest problem with DIY investors [6:14] Getting into the global market [8:13] The Tipping Point [12:01] BobCoin [16:23] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:42] Venturing outside of the US market could pay big With treasury yields at 1.3%, it makes dividend yields — which are over 2% for a lot of US stocks — very attractive. But there are other places to be than in the US. It looks pretty good around the world right now. Biden came out and said he's going after big tech. We're seeing all these antitrust suits against big tech. Not to mention the valuation or how high the prices are on a lot of these big tech stocks and if you own the S&P 500, that's 22% in five companies, Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google. That's not diversification and the headwinds are there. They're real.  The US market isn't the only game in town! Europe looks freaking awesome right now. I never thought I would say that. But when you start looking at vaccination rates going up, dividend yields, cheaper stocks, there are so many reasons why you need to diversify your money right now. To make that a little bit more real, when you say cheaper, the S&P 500 trades at twenty and a half times its forward earnings right now. Europe on the other hand only trades at sixteen and a half times its forward earnings. I would say that's a huge discount. Buy low, sell high, that's the name of the game. This week on the tipping point: Covered Call Strategy This week on the tipping point we are discussing a listener question.  “I listen to your podcast every week and appreciate the way your team keeps me grounded. I was wondering what your thoughts are on a covered call strategy. I generally stay away from Reddit but my son sent this to me and I wonder why I never hear professional investors talk about such strategies. I'd really appreciate your thoughts on this.” The strategy in question is a covered call and we used to use them.  There are two components to a covered call strategy. You buy shares of any stock that's publicly traded. The other way to invest in that same stock is called an option. An option is a very speculative way to invest because it has a finite period of time to where it exists. So if you think about casino gambling, the stock is the house is the casino and the option is the better.  You have this contract and you're giving someone the right to buy your stock at a certain price — ideally, for more than you bought it — and they pay you a premium. Not only do you get the dividend on the stock, but you're getting this premium on top of that. Sounds sexy, right? You're getting all this income on your stock, it's a no-brainer. Why wouldn't everybody do this?  Most people who buy call options, lose all their money. Of course, that is until they don't. When they don't lose money, it means the market made a gigantic move and that's the problem with the strategy when the market moves big, like it had this last year, you end up having to sell out of the market and you don't get all of the return you deserve. Listen to the episode for the full story on this strategy.  This week’s hidden facts of finance The S&P 500 averages a whopping 21.8% in a newly elected Democrats inaugural year. If the past few weeks are any indication it's playing out perfectly again this year. Believe it or not the first year in a presidential cycle under a Democratic presidency, typically has at least a 20% return. You wouldn't think that because of what the administration has been proposing, higher taxes, more estate taxes, reducing wealth, and you'd think that would be counterintuitive to investing in the stock market. It turns out it's not the case. If that's the case, we have another 10% plus to go. Again, market melt-up. It's coming. You heard it here first! Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Jul 14

23 min 34 sec

It's episode 43 of Payne Points of Wealth and the major indices continue to March higher. Everything is focused on the fed right now. Are they going to raise interest rates? Are they going to do it next year? The year after? Is the economy getting too hot? Is it going to slow down? Are we just going to get one big burst of demand from people with their stimulus checks before everything slows down and the market crashes? Well, that's what's on investor's minds today. We're going to address all those issues. We're going to give you our playbook this week for how you have to think about the markets and the economy. On the tipping point today, we're going to talk about all the biggest concerns our clients at Payne capital management have right now when it comes to their portfolio and financial plan so that you can address the same issues in yours. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... The market is partying like it’s 1999 and the Fed is trying to take the punch bowl! [1:16] Let’s be real… what we know [3:25] Value stocks are where the money is right now [6:54] The Tipping Point [11:16] Should you be doing anything to lower your taxes? [16:40] Hidden Facts of Finance [21:26] Who cares if the Fed raises interest rates in two years! It doesn't matter what Jay Powell says or when they're going to raise interest rates, the market's going to determine it way before they do. And let's be real here, we have outrageously cheap money. We've got trillions of dollars that consumers are sitting on and we know consumers drive the US economy. It's all about spending money. We know wages are going up. We've got a labor shortage. We've been talking about this week after week. And at the end of the day, if you're an investor, it's all about earnings going up. And earnings continue to come in better and better. Companies are going to make a lot of money and prices are going up. What else do we need to know? It doesn't matter if the Fed's going to raise interest rates in two years. Who cares? It's not news. This week on the tipping point: Pressing financial issues people are facing One question we are getting from clients right now is, is my portfolio in a good position for inflation? What are we going to do if inflation goes to where it was back in the 1970s? It’s an issue that should be on everybody's mind. It’s been on Bob's mind since the day he started back in 1975. Inflation is real, even though it's hidden, it's insidious, it's hideous, but it's always there. It's constant. We're hearing all about what's going to happen with this coming inflation, but what about the inflation that's already here? We run financial plans for our clients every day and we do these wealth projections. We're showing that even at 2% inflation, the cost of living is going to double every 20 years and a lot of you aren't prepared for that.  The other question we're getting is, should we be doing anything to lower our taxes? How are we going to pay for all this stimulus and government spending? You don't need to be an economist to figure out that taxes are probably going up. Someone's going to pay for these trillions of dollars worth of infrastructure projects and all of the benefits that we've been giving out over the course of the last year. So the question is, how do you prepare for higher taxes? Give unto Caesar that of which is Caesar's, but don't give him any of yours. In other words, don't pay more taxes than you have to and there's a lot of things in your portfolio that you can do to reduce the amount of taxes you're paying. Things like owning exchange-traded funds or municipal bonds, for example. Check out the episode for more! This week’s hidden facts of finance In a recent research paper, under-performance at public retirement plans was mainly attributed to overpaying for alternative asset managers who could be replaced by cheap index funds, saving something like $70 billion a year. Here's a little hidden fact of finance... the markets are a zero-sum game so if somebody's winning, that means somebody's losing. Does it surprise you that public retirement plans are on the losing end? No shock here.  We all get offered all these alternative and brokerage products, hoping that we can gain the market. If I'm a $30 billion pension plan who has access to the best managers and they can't gain the market, what chance do you and I have? Low-cost indexes or the name of the game! I wish I could let every public retirement plan know my favorite Bob-ism and that's “Wall Street is full of ordinary people promising to give you extraordinary results.” Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Jul 7

24 min 19 sec

It's episode 42 of Payne Points of Wealth and the Fed has come out and admitted that inflation might not be transitory. Just like we've been telling you week after week. They're looking to maybe raise interest rates sooner than expected. No kidding! However, in other news, the bond market interest rates actually went down. So what's the deal? Is inflation transitory? Is inflation here to stay? Are interest rates going higher, lower? We're going to break it down for you today on the show. On the tipping point, we're going to talk about pain points that you have when it comes to your finances. What's stopping you right now from getting on your path to financial independence. We're going to talk about the psychology of money and some of the things that you need to be dealing with when it comes to your finances to get over those mental hurdles. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Is this a breather for commodity prices and inflation or a new trend? [1:24] Thinking about the big picture [4:23] You heard it here first! [7:10] The Tipping Point [10:41] The fear of running out of money [11:14] Anxiety about taxes [15:03] Fearing an impending market crash [17:08] Hidden Facts of Finance [21:14] A breather for commodity prices and inflation or a trend? CPI, consumer price index, which is the measure of inflation was up 5% year over year in May. That's a huge number. We haven't seen inflation like that in literally decades. Prices are going up everywhere. As we were recording this oil was at $73 a barrel. Inflation's everywhere.  Meanwhile, lumber has dropped 45% since May. Copper futures are down now 12% from their record high and all of a sudden these commodity prices, which have been so strong are starting to weaken. So maybe it is transitory.  When it comes to markets, one of the dynamics that you have is that nothing goes in a straight line. Yes, commodity prices have come down but look at copper, for instance, it's still up 50% from a year ago, even though it's come down in the last couple of weeks. I mean, commodity prices are still way higher than they were. When you're thinking about your investment portfolio specifically, it's not about winning the battle. It's about winning the war. And the question is, is this just a breather for commodity prices and inflation? Or is this a new trend?  This week on the tipping point: Pain points holding you back from financial independence Everyone has a specific pain point. Something that’s holding you back when it comes to getting to that place of financial independence. So in this episode, we talk about some of those bigger pain points that we experience and how to get over them so we can ditch the anxiety when it comes to our money.  In the episode, we talk about the pains of taxes and market crashes but one of the biggest fears clients seem to have is running out of money. Especially when they are in the transitional phase of having an income to tapping into their wealth in the distribution years. Healthy fear is a good motivator but going overboard can suck the fun out of your life in the here and now. Check out the episode for tips on managing this balance! This week’s hidden facts of finance Despite a jump in taxes during World War II, total disposable personal income in 1944 was double what it was in 1940. America's gross domestic product tripled from 1940 to 1950 in dollar terms. The economy just boomed after the war. Just because taxes are going up doesn't mean that the economy is going to suffer or your personal income is going to suffer? So don't be afraid of taxes. You have to make money for the taxman to take money! Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Jun 30

25 min 7 sec

What's up! It's episode 41 Payne Points of Wealth. As always, a lot is going on right now. We're starting to see inflationary pressures cool off a little bit. Tech stocks on the move again. Is it time to adjust your portfolio? Is inflation really transitory? The Paynes are going to break down the three major forces that are driving everything economically right now, everything in your portfolio that you need to know about. And on the tipping point today, we're going to talk about doing research. There's a lot of good ways and bad ways you can educate yourself with all the information out there. We're going to show you how to dissect the information, pick out good information versus bad financial information. So you can make some better decisions. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Force #1: Labor shortage & irreversible wage increases [1:28] Force #2: The weaker dollar [4:28] Force #3: Supply chain pressure [8:00] The Tipping Point [12:07] Bad information from talking heads on tv [12:36] The most dangerous thing to your personal and financial health [15:01] A good investment strategy allows you to ignore the noise [18:38] Hidden Facts of Finance [23:08] A thank you from the Paynes [26:01] Labor inflation and weak dollars Business owners are complaining about things becoming more expensive and that they can't get anybody to work. And that people that are coming to work are demanding higher pay. That's the big underpinning issue here when you talk about inflationary pressure. Lumber costs are coming down now, but they just tripled, it's not going to triple again. The longer-term stickler when it comes to inflation is labor costs. When you have to pay your employees more, you can't just say, you know what, I know I gave you a raise, but now I'm going to lower your income. It's very hard to reverse that trend. The king dollar seems to have fallen off the throne. It's been going down now for almost 12 months. The dollar has been weak since last March when all the stimulus started. That's how it works, right? If the government keeps printing more money, it's called dilution. It's a simple concept where the more dollars you print, the less valuable they are. Last time I looked the government's looking to print another $6 trillion or so over the course of the next year. So that's very bad for the dollar.  The third leg of this stool is supply chain pressure. Check out the episode to hear more about that! This week on the tipping point: Good and bad ways to educate yourself about finances We all want to feel informed about our options when it comes to making decisions about our finances. So we thought we could discuss some of the good and bad ways we try to educate ourselves when it comes to our finances and the best way that we can inform ourselves to make sure we're always making the best decisions. Unfortunately, most of the bad financial information that our clients talk about comes from watching tv and the internet. A good investment strategy— like the ones we build— is built so that you can ignore all the noise. You have to build a strategy that drowns out all the current opinions because good investing is not about what's happened currently. It's what's going to transpire over the next couple of decades.  This week’s hidden facts of finance The total number of internet connections globally will increase from 0.76 billion today to 3.6 billion by 2025. Hyper-connectivity impacts other unstoppable trends, including the rise of Asia. Many millions of people in Asia will gain internet access for the first time transforming their consumer behavior. You've got one of the largest increasing populations in the world getting connected to the best shopping wall in the world. I think being an investment in emerging markets is going to help in the future here guys. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Jun 23

28 min 6 sec

Welcome to episode 40 of Payne Points of Wealth! Major indices aren't going anywhere fast. If you look at the Dow and the S&P we're basically in the same place now as the last two months. The NASDAQ—big tech— has been in the same place since mid-January. When you start looking under the surface cryptocurrencies are getting rocked right now. That inflationary pressure we've been talking about, we're still seeing it in commodity prices. As we're recording this oil is going through the roof! This big rotation continues to happen. We're going to talk about strategically what you need to be doing and what to be thinking about with your portfolio. On the tipping point, we're going to talk about all those shiny objects in the financial world. The financial services industry loves to sell you things that you don't need. We're going to point them out and show you how to avoid all those shiny objects at all costs.   You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... The greatest restructurer of all [1:50] Two common mistakes investors are making [5:41] Summer trends to consider [9:08] The Tipping Point [10:35] Cherry-picked past promising a perfect future [15:19] Hidden Facts of Finance [20:27] You haven’t missed the boat yet! A big trend to think about this summer is travel is definitely happening! Everyone I've talked to is going on a trip this summer. Either they're flying, going to be in their car, on their boats, everyone is moving around. Do you realize the amount of oil that's going to be used! And as we're recording this oil is at another recent high. All these trends are just going to continue to ramp up. Like they're not going to slow down. The most obvious thing happening in plain sight right now is the fact that all these cyclical stocks, these more boring companies that didn't do as well the last 10 years, are going to be up. This is going to last a long time so you've got to readjust your portfolio, you haven't missed the boat, yet.  This week on the tipping point: Shiny things to avoid Given a collection of around 75 years of experience and a high volume of portfolio reviews each month we’ve seen every strategy under the sun! So let’s talk about these offers or what we call shiny objects that a lot of financial services firms like to pitch and sell you. Because we do the analysis and we break these products down all the time we see a lot of buyer beware products. A lot of things that Wall Street is trying to sell you right now shockingly are not in your best interest. In our industry price compression is making everything is less expensive. Less expensive to trade and less expensive to invest in portfolios. That helps us as consumers and investors, but it really hurts Wall Street. They have to keep coming up with these new ideas— FYI, there are never any new ideas, just old ideas repackaged— and it comes wrapped in this shiny brochure. If you get that shiny brochure and you read all the way through it, like a textbook, and you get to the fine print at the end and there's one caviar, one thing that happens and the entire product blows up, you can bet that one thing will happen. Your shiny product will blow up and you’ll be left with nothing but ashed in your account. This week’s hidden facts of finance Conventional thinking is usually wrong. Remember how millennials weren't going to buy homes? Well, now home sales are at their highest levels since the housing bust. Remember how today's consumers valued experiences over things? Well, spending on recreational vehicles and goods such as televisions and boats is up 14%. Remember last March at the bottom of the pandemic when everybody said the market's going to take years to recover, we should get out now because it's not going to get better for a long time. Well, guess what? That didn't happen either. Isn't it amazing when people think in groups how wrong they are? The other thing was millennials will never use financial advisors but I think the fastest-growing segment of our client base is millennials. So much for Robo-advisors! Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Jun 2

23 min 50 sec

HELLO Americans! It's episode 39 of Payne Points of Wealth and crypto is getting crushed! There's so much going on right now. Looks like we’re going to have a bonafide labor shortage going into the end of the year. We’ll hit on that great rotation we're talking about a week after week. Tech is bleeding money. We're seeing all those work from home stocks get destroyed. But commodity prices are going up. How do you make sense of any of this?  We're going to give you our playbook today and we'll discuss exactly how we see the next couple of months playing out. On the tipping point, we're going to talk about the right questions you need to be asking to make sure you're going to be on your way to financial independence. What are those questions you should be asking versus the questions you shouldn't be asking? Well, we're going to give you our playbook for that too. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Is crypto collapsing? [1:16] The masks are OFF! [3:01] Normalcy on steroids! [5:05] Shortages of labor and supplies [6:43] The Tipping Point [10:19] Question #1 [10:53] Question #2 [14:06] Question #3 [15:49] Hidden Facts of Finance [20:21] And the masks are off...FINALLY! As we're recording this, roughly a week ago, the CDC came out and said if you're vaccinated you don't have to wear a mask indoors or outdoors. It's crazy because Chris was in New York a week ago, it was cloudy and rainy, you know that April/May weather. Everyone's wearing a mask and people looked dour and sad. Then literally within two days the sun was shining and the CDC came out with the big announcement and it was almost like “Pandemic? What pandemic?” It was a complete 180° and it’s wonderful to see! This week on the tipping point: Asking the right questions Often one of the biggest mistakes people make is not asking the right questions when it comes to financial planning and trying to get on that path to financial independence. We thought we'd throw out some of the questions people ask and then reposition those questions so you're asking the right question. The most asked question is “How much money do I need to save in order to be financially independent?” A better question is “How much income will I need and how much will my savings give me?” In other words, how much income from the investments that your portfolio generates each year is going to help you sustain your lifestyle? Then we get “Should I get long-term care or just roll the dice?” The better question would be “What are all my options for covering long-term care expenses?” You know, there's not just one answer, or solution, to this complicated question. Another is “How can I get the highest possible return on my money?” It's not about the return on your money as much as the return of your money. So the real question is “How do I make sure my money gets returned to me?” Things are changing. You've got to ask the right questions. Now, more than ever, if you want to be financially independent you've got to start being proactive. Start making proactive decisions about your portfolio, reverse engineer to figure out what your goals are, then go back to the drawing board and building that perfect portfolio. That's going to get you to those goals. If you want to hear our answers to these questions check out the episode! This week’s hidden facts of finance Small businesses were hit hardest by the pandemic and are actually responsible for half of all US employment. So small businesses, like ours, employ half of Americans. Of course, this explains why we had the unemployment number go through the roof back in February-March because all of these businesses couldn't stay open. You had a pandemic, no fault of their own they lost everything. It was the saddest part of the pandemic besides losing lives of course. But here's the greatest thing about the US economy, our world works on one premise, find a need and fill it. There are going to be enormous needs and all these companies that are gone are going to be replaced by new companies. Because we are the greatest country in the world, the best in entrepreneurs and they're going to find those needs and they're going to fill them. Then unemployment's going to drop like a stone!  Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

May 26

24 min 35 sec

What's up! It's episode 38 of Payne Points of Wealth and inflation is officially here! Not that you didn't know (and feel) that already but last week the official numbers came in and they were way higher than expected. Surprising the markets, surprising economists, but not surprising you and me. We knew the cost of everything was already going up. We know inflation is real. We know rotations going on. Companies can't hire fast enough. We've got a labor shortage. It's getting crazy out there!  On our tipping point segment today we are talking about what's going on with your retirement date, your date of financial independence. Are you planning for it? How do you plan for it? How do you get to a position where you have the freedom to do everything you want to do because you saved enough. You made that big pile of cash. You've invested it right. You grew it and now you have that date where you can live life the way you want to. We're going to tell you how. Check it out.    You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Competing with unemployment [2:11] The oscillation between fear and greed [7:16] Ending trends [8:37] The Tipping Point [10:47] Playing “what if” with your financial independence date [14:07] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:15] Are labor shortages and wage inflation what’s coming next? We all know raw material costs are going up, that's been very obvious. We've talked about it week after week and now it’s showing up in the numbers. What's interesting is that there were very weak job numbers. Everyone thought they were going to create another million jobs last month but it was only around 266,000. Way less! Part of the problem is that people are getting so much more money in their unemployment stimulus checks at home that they don't want to go back to work. This puts pressure on companies to give bonuses. Like $50 just to show up to a fast-food interview or an $800 starting bonus from a convenience store because they need people that desperately. This is likely going to lead to wage inflation. What's crazy is that right now for a company to compete with unemployment, they'd have to exceed a $32,000 a year paycheck.  This week on the tipping point: Your date for financial independence One of the biggest problems we work to solve for the 2000 or so families we advise at Payne Capital Management is the date when it will be safe to be financially independent. Which in a way is all of our dreams, right? We use money so that we can have freedom down the line. That's just a great term. Financial independence. Sometimes people love what they do and they have worked hard to get where they are and to them, retirement just isn't’ something they ever want to do. So, why would you plan for retirement if you don’t have plans to actually retire? This is why we talk about financial independence. That point when you only work because you want to not because you have to. There is freedom in knowing that come injury, illness, or pandemic shutdown you will be ok, financially. You won’t be relying on a stimmy check to pay the bills. We help people find their way to this magic date. We advise them on how to get there. We talk about it in the episode so go check it out! This week’s hidden facts of finance Earlier this year on this podcast, we discussed how we were moving back from the virtual world to the real world. We discussed companies like Peloton, the proverbial work from home stock, since that time has lost 53% of its value and could continue to go lower. We're wondering if we could start up a service where we get companies to pay us not to mention how overvalued their stocks are so they can save the value of the company. What do you think guys? The US's physical infrastructure is ranked only 16th globally by the world economic forum. The proposed spending plan, which would be implemented over eight years would return government investment in the real economy to its highest level since the 1960s. That's great news because here in Philly we have potholes the size of Volkswagens! So a $3 trillion investment in our infrastructure will certainly make driving more pleasurable here in Philly. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

May 19

21 min 47 sec

What's up!! It's episode 37 of Payne Points of Wealth and earning season is upon us. Companies are blowing the doors off earnings. Tech stocks have put mind-blowing numbers up there on the earnings board. Yet tech stocks are doing nada! Meanwhile, commodity prices are going up. Real estate investment trusts are going up. Value stocks are going up. There's a lot going on in the market.  How do you play it? Is tech finally dead? Should you get out or move your money around? We're going to break it down for you today. And on our Tipping Point segment, we're going to talk about consolidation. Is your money everywhere? Is it a mess? Do you have a plan? We're going to show talk about what you should be doing to organize and get on track for financial independence.   You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... This could be the greatest recovery in the history of the country [1:17] Tech earnings are up but the stocks aren’t doing jack! [2:38] Pipelines and their commodities [4:35] Factoring in how high inflation can go [7:39] The Tipping Point [11:21] How consolidating to one advisor can save you big! [14:44] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:49] Positive surprises from boring companies When it comes to markets it's about what are the surprises in the positive? Big tech blowing up their earnings is not a surprise. We're buying more stuff online. We're advertising on Facebook. Duh! The one thing that no one's factoring in is how high inflation can go. Each week that we have an unexpected surprise and inflation goes up it positively affects the bottom line of a lot of companies we're talking about like Procter & Gamble, Caterpillar, and Bank of America. These boring old companies that no one wanted to own for the last decade. This week on the tipping point: Consolidating your financial life. If you think your advisor's working for free, you're paying more than anybody in the industry. They hide these charges but they are there! One thing that we despise more than anything is being overcharged and if you're overcharging yourself, well... shame on you.  Here’s the thing, if you give one advisor $500k and you give another advisor $200k and yet another $300k then each of these firms is treating you like a small account. But if you consolidate it you're entitled to a discount on all the money together. Other problems with spreading it out is that you end up having overlap in your portfolio and paying high fees on all your accounts because you're a little investor at each firm.  Recently we had a client that had millions of dollars and they were being overcharged so much that we figured we could save them 2% a year in fees, that was $80k a year in fees they could drop! Can you imagine what they were losing on the returns that $80k invested over time would have profited them? It doesn’t pay to “diversify” like this! This week’s hidden facts of finance The Census Bureau recently put out its first raw numbers and found that the U.S. population grew at its slowest rates since the great depression and that did not include the death toll from the pandemic. According to Warren Buffet, there were about 2000 companies that entered the auto business in the 1900s because investors and entrepreneurs expected the industry to have an amazing future. Like electric vehicles today. However, in 2009 there were only three carmakers left and two went bankrupt. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

May 12

23 min 25 sec

Hey, what's up! It's episode 36 of Payne Points of Wealth. We've got a special guest for you today, Kenny Polcari. He's Managing Partner at Kace Capital Advisors, Chief Market Strategist at Slatestone Wealth, and Managing Director at Campfire Capital. Most importantly, he was one of the most famous stock exchange traders going back to the ‘80s and no one gives you a better tour of the New York Stock Exchange than Kenny! We're going to talk with him about what's going on with inflation, the economy, and investing. On the tipping point, we're going to talk about bonds. Bonds are going down. Do you own bond funds? We're going to let some sunlight in and tell you exactly what you should be doing with bonds. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Is there more inflation coming than our Federal Reserve Chief is telling us? [1:40] Housing prices & interest rates [3:41] Ken’s thoughts on crypto [7:23] Why would we listen to a strategist? [12:26] The Tipping Point [15:32] How bonds work [17:18] The difference between an individual bond and a bond fund [18:19] Hidden Facts of Finance [22:16] Kenny Polcari’s thoughts on inflation Kenny and Ryan seem to agree that there's a lot more inflation coming our way than our Federal Reserve Chief is telling us.  Here are Kenny's thoughts on inflation right now "I've been saying it for a while and I've been writing about it my note and we've been talking about it on television, but you can feel it, right? If you live in this world, if you go out shopping, out to the stores, you can feel the price increases. You can see it. And so therefore I don't need the CPI or some government report telling me that there's no inflation when I go out there and I feel that there's plenty of inflation all around, right? I mean, everybody sees it. Everybody's talking about it but the government doesn't want to admit that we've got it. And so my sense is that it's building and it's building. And it's going to rear its ugly head. It's not going to be temporary and transitory the way that the fed keeps telling us it's going to be. I think we're going to see this spike in the next month or the month after. But then it's going to remain and that's going to change the whole story, the whole fed story, the CPI story, the inflation story, how hot is hot? Define hot? You and I can define it one way. The fed is going to define it a different way to fit their story, to fit their narrative. And that's going to be the part where I think the market's going to have a difficult time and investors are going to have to figure out what's the definition of hot to them. And then what's that mean to valuations?" This week on the tipping point: Bond Funds When you own bonds outright it's simple, you know who you're lending to, you know what they're going to pay you in interest to borrow your money, and you know the set date in the future that they're going to return your money. But when Wall Street packages these bonds into a bond fund it takes away the permanence and definition and that's the big problem with owning a bond fund. Not only does the permanency and definition go away but there's also the question of quality. A prime example is back in 2015, there were a lot of municipal bond funds that were being AAA-rated, meaning they're the highest possible credit rating, that still held Puerto Rican bonds and Puerto Rico defaulted on their debt, which means that the holders of those bonds lost their money. Bonds are good, bond funds...not so much. This week’s hidden facts of finance Exchange-traded funds took in a record $502 billion in investor cash last year. Traditional mutual funds on the other hand said goodbye to a record $289 billion. Exchange-traded funds are typically less expensive and more tax-efficient and as we say here at Payne Capital Management, any money saved in taxes and fees is just as green as money made in the market. Exchange-traded funds are new school and mutual funds are old school, you heard it here first.  Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect with Kenny Polcari His website On Twitter  On Linkedin On YouTube Kenny Polcari Financial Services Executive | Business Commentator | Speaker | Industry Advocate As the founder and Managing Partner at Kace Capital Advisors and a CNBC Market Analyst - I have dedicated my career to helping my clients and their families achieve their financial goals in life. As Chief Market Strategist at Slatestone Wealth I have a range of investment strategy responsibilities including U.S. market and economic analysis and client engagement. I am also a contributor to TDAmeritrade Internal Network and a keynote speaker at many industry and retail events. A 38 year member of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) I bring over 30 years of executive management experience in institutional equities and wealth management, and twenty-five years of stewardship in industry advocacy. I am on the board of the National Organization of Investment Professionals (NOIP), and the Headstrong Project, a nonprofit providing free treatment to 9/11 combat veterans suffering from PTS. Regularly quoted in The Wall Street Journal, Kiplingers, MarketWatch, Thompson Reuters, TheStreet.com and others. Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

May 5

26 min 4 sec

It's episode 35 of Payne Points of Wealth and we're going to talk about everything going on around the globe. People are spending, Americans love to spend, but so does the rest of the world. We're seeing people spending money everywhere. Inflation continues to kick in just like we told you. We're looking at economic growth at the end of the year that's going to blow your mind. So how do you play it? How do you position your portfolio? You've got Coinbase going public. Crypto is going crazy and so is the world! We're going to give you some common sense advice today. On the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about procrastination. How do you procrastinate when it comes to your finances? Well, we're going to call you out on it. We're going to tell you how to get on top of those finances, get yourself financially independent, and get on the right track! Join us! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Spending like drunken sailors with Louis Vuitton bags! [1:25] Insane increases in real estate and lumber [4:21] Stocks own real assets [6:19] The Tipping Point [10:20] Procrastinating because it’s stressful and overwhelming [13:23] Taking the first steps [16:35] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:44] Equities and commodities as inflation hedges The idea is to have stocks that own real assets, right? So as the value of those underlying real assets go up in value, the stock goes up in value, business is booming. As they do more business, their earnings go up. As they make more money, they pay more dividends. That’s what a terrific hedge against inflation looks like.  Equities are the core holding as an inflation hedge, but then there are also commodities. We don't see anyone owning commodities right now, except for our clients. Also, look at real estate. Real estate is going up. You want to have real estate as a hedge in your portfolio. You don't want to have bond funds, but what I see people owning right now are long-dated bond funds—which are down 13-14% this year— and gold which is down 10%. What a horrible combination. The bottom line here is you want to own what we call productive assets.  This week on the tipping point: Overcoming procrastination The first step is just telling us the assets that you have. The reason we have a job is that most people don't want to do this by themselves. Then starting to look at what you spent. Then when you're armed with that data, the sky's the limit! Then we can play.  What if you can start looking at what-ifs. What if I retired a little bit early? What if I worked longer? What if I saved a little bit more? What impact does it have? And that's the fun part. There is a fun part to financial planning. That's the part where you get to play and dream. What if you get to dream a little bit and start looking at where you can be if you make some tweaks and adjustments to your portfolio and into your time horizons? That's the good stuff. That's the part that's fun for us too.  This week’s hidden facts of finance If you invested $1000 into the following investments on January 1st of this year, you'd have this much as of April 16th... Tesla, your thousand dollars would have turned into $1,012. GameStop, you'd have $9000. Bitcoin, your thousand would have turned into 2000. And if you'd had $1000 Dogecoin it would be worth $55,000! Man, we missed that investment. The one message you have when you have this type of return in three months is that it can go down just as fast as it went up. Most likely faster. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Apr 28

22 min 48 sec

Welcome to episode 34 of Payne Points of Wealth. We're going to talk about the roaring ‘20s today! There is so much going on. The economy's revving up and earnings are going to heat up as we begin earning season. Wondering what you need to do with your portfolio? Taxes are probably going up and we're going to give you strategies. On the tipping point, we're going to talk about the fine print. The financial industry always has caveats with what they're trying to sell you. We're going to give you the buyer beware and show you exactly what to look for. We've got lots of fun, fascinating facts of finance today too. It’s gonna be another great show, don’t miss it!   You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... The roaring ’20s are back! [1:09] The most dangerous words in investing [4:01] One theme over the last year [7:04] The Tipping Point [8:21] The annuity [8:50] The mutual fund [10:25] The real estate investment trust [12:33] Hidden Facts of Finance [16:42] It’s different this time...? If you weren't in the industry back in the ‘70s, then you haven't seen a bear market in bonds. That has consequences for investors because all these newbie advisors haven't seen what happens. They haven't seen the devastation caused when interest rates go up in those dreaded weapons of mass financial destruction, some people call bond funds.  One thing we've been putting out week after week is that inflation just keeps creeping in and one of the gauges that we love is the producer's price index. What the heck is that? Simply put it's what it costs companies to produce goods and that's going up... a lot. Companies are going to pass those costs on to us, the consumer, which causes inflation. That's what rising prices are all about.  The four most dangerous words in investing are "it's different this time".  Well, guess what? It is different this time! The GDP is going through the roof. It's the strongest US global economic recovery in almost 50 years. It's even longer than Bob’s been in the business. This recovery is going to be the best ever. We're seeing economic growth around the globe, unlike anything anybody who's listening to this right now, has seen since they've been investing. This week on the tipping point: Financial products aren’t bought, they’re sold When a financial product is sold it's like eating Chinese food. It tastes so good going down, but you feel so empty later. One big culprit is the annuity industry. You’ll never hear of anyone who went online and bought an annuity. It's always been sold to them and the person selling it doesn't do it for nothing. The commissions are astronomical on a lot of these products. Then you have another group of investments called mutual funds. They're not necessarily good or bad. It all comes down to whether or not they're appropriate. What could go wrong with a mutual fund? Well, one example, is if you have a manager of that fund that's trying to outperform their underlying index a lot of times they'll take a lot more risks than they need. Then end up getting less returns because they're trying to time the market as well as charging higher fees.  Lastly, we have non-traded REITs. Every time we see a non-traded REIT and ask the investor if they went out and found this to buy it the answer is always "Oh no, the guy who sold it to me told me said it was good." REIT stands for Real Estate Investment Trust. The crazy thing about these is they're sold because people feel like they're getting a "private real estate deal". On the flip side, you can buy a portfolio of REITs in an exchange-traded fund, which is 100% liquid meaning you can buy and sell it all day long. We’ve found that it's usually better than these private REITs where you can never get out of them. This week’s hidden facts of finance Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway bought Coca-Cola stock in the late ’80s and the early ’90s. Today, those shares are projected to generate $672 million a year in annual dividend income. That is a 51% annual yield based on the original $1.3 billion it cost to buy the stock. On top of it all, today the stock is worth $21 billion in their portfolio. Goes to show that time passes and markets operate! Who wouldn't want a 51% yield? But to get it you have to be patient, be an investor, and own great companies that don't just pay a dividend, but also increase that dividend every year like Coke has for the last 60 years. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Apr 21

20 min 49 sec

What's up! It's episode 33 of Payne Points of Wealth and the economy right now is hot. Make no mistake, we've talked about it week after week and it's happening. Unemployment is coming down way faster than expected. Consumers are buying more goods than expected and supply chains are on fire!  Today we're going to talk about exactly what you need to be doing in your portfolio, what you need to anticipate, and what this means for the global economy? On our Tipping Point segment, we're going to talk about conflicts of interest. Believe it or not Wall Street is not working for you. We're going to dig into all the dirty little secrets on Wall Street and the financial services industry that you need to be aware of so that you can make better decisions with your finances. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Everything is higher than expected! [1:18] The Market is a slave to earnings [3:59] A hot tip on Bitcoin [6:11] The Tipping Point [8:41] The cost of protection [10:48] Structured products are only beneficial for the entity that’s doing the structuring [14:18] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:12] Wall Street strategist’s estimates are driving record highs in the market The market is a slave to companies’ earnings and companies are going to make a lot of money over the next two years. As a result, you're seeing strategists on Wall Street increasing their estimates of how high those profits or earnings are going to be. Every time they do that it ratchets up the price in the market so we're seeing new highs every week. The S&P 500 reached over $4,000 for the first time in history and we're closing in on $34,000 on the Dow. It seems that right now the bet is not on the future of profits for these big disruptive tech companies like Spotify, Zoom, or Tesla. It's more on the companies that are profitable now, those old-school stocks like banks and oil. That's been the theme here on our show week after week. It's about profits. All about profits! When you start thinking about your portfolio and you think about being strategic you have to think about what has the most benefits and what the losers are. The losers are going to be all these companies that have no profits. This week on the tipping point: Conflicts of interest The financial services world is riddled with conflicts of interest. We worked for one of the largest firms on Wall Street and spent a good amount of time just protecting our clients from the firm. It’s one of the reasons we started our firm Payne Points of Wealth. Check out the episode today where we will discuss some of the situations where the financial services industry might not be working in your best interest.  The first red flag about the financial services industry is that our government has been trying to protect the consumer for a good 20 years now bypassing what they call the fiduciary rule. That's where the advisor or investment firm has to put YOU, the consumer, the investor, the client’s interest first. But guess what guys? They've been fighting it tooth and nail, they don't want to put your interests first. They want to make as much money as they can.  This week’s hidden facts of finance The real net public infrastructure investment has been cut by more than half since the early 2000s. The new proposed $2.3 trillion infrastructure plan is equal to all of the revenue generated by Apple over the past 18 years combined, including that from every iPhone, iPad, and iPod ever sold! That's a lot of stimulus into the economy. Just think if the federal government had gotten into the smartphone and tablet business 18 years ago we probably wouldn't have anything to worry about, but the problem is taxes will probably go up in the future because we have to pay for this infrastructure somehow. Eventually, taxes are coming, but also the economic boom. So you get two sides of the coin there. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Apr 14

22 min 4 sec

It's episode 32 of Payne Points of Wealth, we’ve got the news in plain sight, you've seen the headlines, and we give you the real story. The real story is mean reversion! Investors are learning a "Payneful" lesson, a trend we identified on this show months ago, and that is technology stocks are starting to sell-off. You might be wondering what’s a mean reversion? How does it work? We're going to break it down for you and explain why it's so important to understand as you're building your investment portfolio.  On the tipping point, we're going to pinpoint the Payne points having the biggest impact on your wealth right now. Which are rules of thumb when it comes to financial planning. What rules of thumbs should you be using? Which ones should you disregard? We're going to tell you what kind of customized planning you should be doing right now, what you should be applying to your financial plan, and we've got lots of fascinating facts of finance.   You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... No new eras in investing [1:24] Long term investors vs bubble makers [3:51] Two hard questions to ask yourself as an investor [5:31] The Tipping Point [9:12] The rule of 100 [9:39] The rule of 75% [10:36] 6 months savings rule [11:54] The rule of 5 [13:36] The 4% rule [15:45] The Payne Capital A to B rule [16:53] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:32] Two hard questions to ask yourself as an investor First. Are we too optimistic about some markets’ potential or an “addressable market”? Is mom going to go Venmo grandma or maybe pay with Crypto or is she still going to write a check out of her Bank of America account? Is Tesla going to be the only electric vehicle option in town? Are we being naive? Second. Is this newfound optimism already priced in? Look at a company like DocuSign, a super hot stock right now, it trades for 153 years worth of profits. So maybe that addressable market is already priced in the stock for decades to come. We don't know, but these are big possibilities. And we don't think investors are asking themselves those hard questions. This week on the tipping point: Rules of Thumb In this episode, we talk about some financial “Rules of Thumb” you’ve probably heard in your lifetime. The rule of 100. The rule of 75%. The 6 months savings rule. The rule of 5. The 4% rule. In the episode we chime in on each of these, so you should definitely go listen, and these are all pretty good rules, but when it comes to investing... rules are made to be broken.  The only rule you need to follow is the rule of A to B, and that's getting your family from your point A— where you are right now financially— to your goals...your dreams...to your point B! That's the Bob Payne rule. That's the Payne Capital Management rule. And that rule will help you to rule your life financially, forever.  This week’s hidden facts of finance 40% of companies successful enough to become publicly traded lost effectively all of their value over time. The Forbes 400 list of the richest people in America has roughly a 20% turnover per decade for causes other than death or transferring money to another family member. It just goes to prove that the numbers show it, that investing in individual stocks is not investing, it's speculation. Investing in the market and a diversified portfolio is the only way to go.  How lucky do you feel? Lucky enough to pick a company that not only stays in business but outperforms the index, or will you end up with a bunch of companies that go under? I don't know about you, but I don't speculate. I invest. Capitalism's messy. Anything that's incumbent today, whether it's Amazon, Facebook, or Google, is only a couple of steps away from creative destruction from some other force of the universe. So it's a great reminder that you can't stay complacent as an investor. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Apr 7

22 min 41 sec

It's episode 31 of Payne Points of Wealth and the great reopening is upon us! If you think it's not, all you have to do is look at Miami right now. It's spring break. There are no rules! Everything's open and people are going crazy. You can almost imagine what the rest of the world is going to look like as we slowly recover and reopen throughout the rest of the year. Again, what the three of us have been talking about week after week is that the economy's going to boom. It's going to be red hot! It's coming.  We're going to address that on the show today. We’ll also touch on what's going on with the market and how to invest your money. We’ll bestow upon you some of our thoughts and wisdom about the markets, investing, and financial planning so that you can apply it on your own. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Party in the city where the heat is on...Welcome to Miami [1:21] What does it mean when company executives sell their own stock? [5:54] Value stocks are the new growth stocks [9:20] The Tipping Point [11:45] Mortgages - pay it off or invest instead? [12:20] Individual bonds -vs- bond funds [13:53] Are annuities a rip-off? [17:36] Hidden Facts of Finance [21:19] Value stocks are the new growth stocks When you have inflation, when interest rates are going up, small does better than big, value does better than growth, and international does better than the US. Unfortunately, the majority of the portfolios we're reviewing— and we’re reviewing about 50 non-Payne Capital Management clients a month— are all positioned for last year. They're not built for what's happening right now. The irony is growth stocks are not where the growth is going to be. Because these old-school value companies that we talk about are where the opportunity is. An example of this is a company called Bloomin' Brands, which owns a lot of restaurant chains. Just a good old-fashioned business of restaurant chains. And Americans love to go out to eat! We know that their earnings are going to go up 80% over the next year. This isn't a technology company. They're cutting costs dramatically and when you cut a lot of expenses and all of a sudden your demand comes back, profits just go crazy. That's what the market's going to start seeking out, new growth that’s operating leverage. It's not new technology and innovation, that's already happened. This week on the tipping point: Our 2¢ Should you always pay off the mortgage as soon as you can? It may depend on which generation you ask. With home interest rates under 4% and portfolios average 5% or better, it makes more sense to pay the note and invest any additional cash you’re thinking of dropping on additional principal payments. However, to some of you, peace of mind is more valuable. Are individual bonds better than bond funds? We hate bond funds so the simple answer here is YES!! Listen to the segment to hear why. Are annuities a rip-off? An annuity is a financial product and most of the time it is loaded with heavy fees. You're basically putting yourself in a position to NOT win because every year you have all these institutions taking money and chipping away at your investment. Sometimes they can be appropriate but proceed with extreme caution and know what the fees are. This week’s hidden facts of finance The S&P 500 index has risen by an average of 36% during the nine periods since 1980 when 10-year yields have also moved higher. Kind of like today. Stock prices and bond yields tend to move in tandem because higher yields tend to be a sign of a growing economy. We're predicting a 6.5% GDP yield by the end of the year, that's probably happening right now. Higher yields and inflation are actually good for stocks. You don't want to sit in cash.  Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Mar 31

25 min 47 sec

What's up! It's episode 30 of Payne Points of Wealth! The economy is opening up at warp speed. We literally have had a hundred million COVID-19 vaccine doses administered as of the recording of this podcast. The economic data is looking better and better. We're seeing a huge rotation in the stock market— that we identified for you months ago.  The world is changing. The world is shifting. The world is opening up. We're going to talk about how you need to play that in your portfolio and what you need to be thinking about with regards to the economy. We're also going to cover what risks you may have in your portfolio and what risks you don't see that you have in your portfolio. We're also going to point out all the different risks that you need to avoid as the economy reopens and the world becomes a better place. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... What’s wrong with the economy [1:55] The Wall Street consensus [4:03] Inflation hedges [8:01] The Tipping Point [9:45] Are risk tolerance tests a good way to dictate risk in your portfolio? [11:33] More risk, more reward? [14:39] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:53] Is the uptick in inflation temporary?  There's this big belief on Wall Street that maybe this is just a short-term blip on the radar. Maybe, inflation’s not going to kick in. Maybe, interest rates aren't going to go higher. If that's the case, maybe you want to continue to own those tech stocks and bond funds.  But if the economy is going to run hot the second half of the year because the entire world's going to reopen— and they are sprinkling all of this money on the economy that we're going to spend— odds are we're going to see a lot of inflation going into the end of the year. Which speaks to owning old-school stocks and stocks that pay dividends. You know... stocks that benefit the most from the reopening of the economy. This week on the tipping point: Risk We get great insight into the psychology of investing and financial planning— given the 2000 families that we help manage their finances— and we think one of the most important components is risk. How do you view risk? What about risk in your portfolio or when it comes to reaching your goals? Unfortunately, most risk is only seen in hindsight. We want to talk about some of the questions that you need to be asking yourself when it comes to risk in your portfolio to make sure that you're on your path to financial independence. Believe it or not, of every portfolio ever reviewed or even looked at, 90% of the investors were taking way more risk than necessary to achieve their stated goals. This week’s hidden facts of finance As auto executives and investors buzz about the coming age of the electric car, many car dealers say they're struggling to square that enthusiasm with the actual reality. Last year battery-powered vehicles made up fewer than 2% of all US auto sales. When we watch the nightly news and they tell us that by 2035 everyone will be driving electric cars. Well, only 2% were sold this year. And I'll tell you who gets it is the Tesla executives. Because as people keep buying Tesla stock, the Tesla executives have been selling stock to the public while they think this is going to be the most amazing event in the next couple of years, why they selling their stock? It's a very good point. If I'm holding Tesla stock right now, I'd be concerned that the management's selling. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Mar 24

25 min 3 sec

It's episode 29 of Payne Points of Wealth — tech is starting to dive and old-school stocks are starting to win. In the last week, we've seen the NASDAQ have a 10% correction while the Dow Jones Industrial Average— the old school index— hit an all-time record high. The economy’s reopening, old school -vs- new school, is this trend going to continue? We are also going to talk about what catalysts in your financial life are going to get you going to make sure that you're getting all your ducks in a row when it comes to all the financial things. It’s a great episode so go check it out! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Come take a ride in Bob’s way back machine [2:51] Seeing risk in hindsight [6:19] The real opportunity is EVERYWHERE ELSE [8:44] The Tipping Point [10:21] The North Star of financial planning [12:45] Financial stress test [14:29] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:12] Valuations don't matter... until they do! Amazon, Google, Apple they're all just making money hand over fist. They're the stocks of the future. Or are they the stocks of last year? Either way, we're still going to order things off of Amazon. We're still going to be buying our Apple phones, our Apple watches, and our Apple brains. So how can these massive, big tech companies that are the crème de la crème in the US all of a sudden not be hot anymore? It makes no sense. Or does it? But valuations don't matter until they do.  You're investing in great companies, but is it also a great stock?  This week on the tipping point: URGENCY in financial planning Most of us, if we're honest with ourselves, find it very easy to procrastinate when it comes to our financial planning issues. We at Payne Capital Management know this better than anybody! Dealing with people and their finances is a very tricky thing. So in this episode, we will discuss some scenarios that might light a fire under your sense of urgency.  A lot of people think, “my goal is to make as much money as I can” but making money is NOT a goal. Why do you need to make money? What's the purpose of money? Understand what you're trying to accomplish and have your end game in mind. Do you want to have a lifetime of income that you cannot outlive? Do you want to have a big ol’ pile of go-to-hell money so that you don't have to work for the rest of your life? Are you taking more risks than necessary to achieve those goals? Are you taking enough? Check out the episode and we will help answer some of these questions! This week’s hidden facts of finance Despite the pandemic, the total number of billionaires around the world rose by 412 to a record of 3,228 billionaires. Overall, China added 259 billionaires to this list, more than the rest of the world combined. The richest 100,000 American families hold about 16 trillion. That's trillion with a ‘T’ in net assets. Rather than be jealous of these billionaires just celebrate your own success. The US household wealth is at an all-time record high! That means every one of you right now is worth more than you have ever been worth in your life. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Mar 17

23 min 19 sec

It's episode 27 pain points of wealth. And the economy is about to run hot and tech is not. Technology shares have been wavering here as the market goes up and up and up every single week inflation's kicking in. Interest rates are going up. Oil prices are going up. Lots going on in the market. We're going to break it down for you today. We're going to talk about what we see in the future when it comes to the economy, the stock market, and how to invest your money. And we're going to talk about the financial services industry. Yes. There are lots of charlatans in our industry. I'm sure you're shocked. We're going to break down some of the warning signs or things to watch out for when you're getting advice from the financial services industry so you can make the best decisions about your money.   You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... A voracious rally resulting in quickly recovering economy [1:12] Do you feel wealthy? [3:50] The biggest mistakes we are seeing right now [6:26] The Tipping Point [10:50] Financial advisors or glorified product salespeople? [11:41] What is a true fiduciary? [15:02] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:42] Overconcentration in large-cap US stocks One of the biggest mistakes that we see right now— and we look at probably 50 portfolios every month, we literally see every strategy out there— is an overconcentration in large-cap US stocks. Apple is a great company, Amazon's a great company, Facebook's a great company but they just had their day in the sun and last year they made so much money it's going to be hard to beat that moving forward. What you have to realize with your portfolio is that the market cares about whose earnings or whose profits are growing the fastest. And those stocks are probably not going to grow as fast anymore because it's the law of big numbers. They've already grown so much that you've got to start looking at where the profits are going to grow the fastest. And that's going to be in a lot of old-school stocks versus new school stocks. This week on the tipping point: Looking for red flags from advisors You would think that if someone was dishonest or they pulled the wool over somebody's eyes in the past, our industry would be smart enough to kick them out, but they don't. If you're wondering about your advisor, all you have to do is go to the FINRA site and look at the broker check. Something you should always look at when looking to work with a financial advisor is what their history looks like?  When it comes to financial planning and financial health and assessing that, it shouldn't be product-based, it should be what we call goal-based. The problem is a lot of our industry is still just looking to sell you something that you put in your portfolio. We talk about this a lot. You end up with what we call collection of investments. In this episode, we cover a lot of things to look for to know if you have someone looking out for your best interest as your fiduciary. Be sure to check it out. This week’s hidden facts of finance Clean power sources, such as wind and solar are projected to provide 39% of the US utility industries generating capacity versus 13% today. On the other hand, coal is forecasted to account for just 3% versus 19% of all energy generated from utilities. Well, who says you can't be both green and profitable. So utility traditional utilities are cheap right now, but they're also investing in things like green energy, thinking about the future. So if you can get them cheap, you can also be green. That's going to lead to better profit margins. I like the idea that you can buy old-school utilities here, and it's actually an alternative energy play as opposed to buying some of these alternative energy stocks, which have already been shot to the moon. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes FINRA —> Broker Check Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Mar 10

25 min 23 sec

It's episode 27 of Payne Points of Wealth and inflation has arrived. Don't say we didn't warn you. We've talked about inflation and now it's here. Commodity prices are going through the roof as energy prices are up over 20%, lumber prices are up over 50%, and corn is up over 30%. The cost of living is going up. How do you position your portfolio? We're going to show you exactly how to invest your money. We’re also digging into what you should think about when you're 30, 40, 50, 60, when it comes to your financial plan? We're going to tell you exactly what you need to be thinking about at each stage of your journey.  You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... What is inflation? [3:42] Weapons of mass financial destruction [5:31] Old school over new school [7:36] The Tipping Point [10:26] Funding in your 30’s [10:46] Budgeting in your 40’s [13:20] Closing in on financial independence in your 50’s [15:12] Building a retirement income plan in your 60’s [16:42] Scary RMD’s in your 70’s [17:37] Hidden Facts of Finance [20:24] Do you have a portfolio that can deal with inflation? The simplest economic term for inflation is having too many dollars chasing too few goods. One of the big problems right now is the government has created so much money— in fact, the money supplies have increased by 26%— that's the most since 1943. What that means is there's a lot of money out there and all those dollars are going to be chasing a finite amount of goods. When you talk about things like oil, gold, or copper, they're all finite. It increases the prices because the supply and demand get out of whack. Right now there's just too much money out there and that's the inherent problem, that's what causes inflation. Just a year ago even a couple of months ago, no one expected inflation to go up at all. Now you can see it right across the board. The best indication you have is interest rates going up. Now, how does that impact you and your portfolio? Check out the show to find out! This week on the tipping point: Ages & stages of financial planning The first 30 years of life seem to tick by slowly and the next 30 are gone in the blink of an eye. As we like to say at our firm— Payne Capital Management— financial planning is a journey, not a destination. Depending on where you are in that journey, there are different issues you have to address at different ages. What should you do if you didn’t do anything in your 30’s or even 40’s? Just start now, get in where you fit in. Listen to the episode as we discuss some of the steps you should focus on at each age. Funding in your 30’s. Budgeting in your 40’s. Closing in on financial independence in your 50’s. Building a retirement income plan in your 60’s. And dealing with scary RMD’s in your 70’s. This week’s hidden facts of finance Walmart is still the world's largest retailer when measured by revenue, not Amazon. With 2021 fiscal sales of 559 billion or larger than all the 21 country's gross domestic products.  The 90-year-old empire state building said in its fourth-quarter financial results, that the number of visitors to its Observateur declined by 94% in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 55,000 from 894,000 people visiting just a year earlier. It sounds like New York's become a ghost town. During 16 post-war periods in which interest rates went up, the S&P 500 was up in 13 of those windows with an annual rate of return of 13%. In other words, rising rates and rising stocks go hand in hand more often than not. Stocks are actually an inflation hedge. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Mar 3

25 min 6 sec

It's episode 26 of Payne Points of Wealth and money is pouring into the stock market. Two weeks ago, we had over $58 billion go into exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money jammed into energy as the animal spirits are alive and well. How do you play it? What do you do next? Greed is definitely seeping into the market, what are you doing with your portfolio right now that also speaks to greed. Are you being greedy? Are you being disciplined with your investment strategy? We're going to address all that on this episode so be sure to listen up! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... The great irony of the stock market [1:17] Focusing on the big picture, not the hiccups [3:30] The market does its best to compound the majority [5:38] The Tipping Point [9:36] How FOMO is driving greed [11:54] The market always catches you off guard [14:36] Hidden Facts of Finance [17:10] Investing where it’s hot and where it’s profitable are rarely in alignment There's so much opportunity in the market right now and a lot of you are just looking at the wrong thing. Isn't that the way it always is though, it's like whatever we anticipate the most and wherever the money's flowing the most at the same time tends to be where we get the least amount of return over time. It's the great irony of the stock market. Warren Buffet is selling even more of this Apple stock, not buying into the hot tech trade. He's buying really exciting stocks like Chevron and Verizon, which are not only inexpensive right now, but also pay great dividends. Maybe he's lost his touch because obviously, all your money should be in electric vehicles, Bitcoin, SPACs, and anything growth-related. This week on the tipping point: Giving in to greed We have an old saying in our business that markets oscillate between fear and greed. With the stock market going up literally every day now you can kind of feel greed starting to seep in. As we know from managing money now for a collective 70 plus years, when it comes to your money, giving in to that desire of greed can end very badly. Gordon Gekko’s famous speech said greed is good but he lost everything and ended up going to jail, so maybe greed isn’t that good after all. Check out the episode where we talk about how greed can be very detrimental to your financial health specifically right now! This week’s hidden facts of finance Colorado topped $2 billion in marijuana sales through state dispensaries last year, putting it on par with Canada. They raised $387 million in taxes and fees. Virginia legalization appears imminent, which will bring the number of recreational pot States up to 16 but with those kinds of tax dollars, I think it's going to 50. The first electric age effectively ended in 1915 after Henry Ford and Thomas Edison teamed up to take a crack at electric vehicles. The stately battery-powered sedans of the pre-World War One era appealed mostly to well-to-do urbanites. President Woodrow Wilson drove around the White House grounds and his Milburn Electric. Apparently, these vehicles were too slow, too heavy, and too costly. Check out the show for more hidden facts of finance! Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Feb 24

21 min 32 sec

The government has announced another stimulus plan and another $1.9 trillion. Keep in mind last year we had $2.2 trillion bestowed upon the economy, along with another $900 billion at the end of the year. It's almost like pouring rocket fuel on rocket fuel. What this means is the second half of the year is going to be a huge economic boom.  We're going to talk about what that means for you, how to position your portfolio. If you're getting into that financial red zone, maybe you're five years out from retirement or you're five years into retirement there are things you need to be doing proactively with your financial plan to make sure you're on track. We're going to give you our playbook to make sure you're making all the best decisions when it comes to your finances in episode 25 of Payne Points of Wealth, so don’t miss it! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Why is everything going up? [1:22] The misconception [3:26] The hidden rotation of profits [6:26] Positioning for tomorrow today [9:10] The Tipping Point [11:40] From wealth accumulation to wealth distribution [13:57] Having interest and dividends so you aren’t dependant on market growth [17:22] Hidden Facts of Finance [20:34] Be where the action’s going not where it is The day is coming when we can go out and actually live life again. We talk about this in almost every episode, but I don't think people realize the magnitude of just how great those animal spirits are going to be six months from now. You've got to position your portfolio for that today. As in right now. We'd rather own hotel stock than the hottest biotech stock because in reality, that's where the action's going to be. As an investor, you always want to be investing where the action's going to be not where it is right now.  The proof is in the pudding. Earnings are coming out showing Amazon and Apple both had over $125 billion revenue quarters. Record quarters! Nothing like that has ever been seen in the history of the country… but their stock is barely moving. That’s because the time to buy that stock was a year or two years ago when the economy was shutting down and there was nowhere else to go for growth. This week on the tipping point: The financial RED ZONE We talk with our clients all the time about being in the financial red zone. That's roughly the 10 years before retirement and those first 5-10 years in retirement. We’ve found there’s a lot of adjustments you have to make to your financial life to make sure you're going to be secure throughout retirement.  The most important thing to figure out in that red zone is what you spend. A lot of you out there have no clue how much money you're actually spending. If you're not putting in good spending numbers, that's going to throw off your entire projection. It's in that first five years of retirement where you find out if you calculated that budget correctly.  If you think you’ll spend less in retirement, think again. The reality is you're probably going to spend more in the first five years of retirement because your spending habits don't change that much but the time you have to spend it increases. You should always plan for more, not less. We're Americans. We love to spend money. Let's not kid ourselves! This week’s hidden facts of finance Only 55% of global market capitalization is composed of US stocks. Yet, US investors tend to put 75% of their stock holdings in US stocks. This statistic completely blows us away considering how many of the products we use on a day-to-day basis are made overseas. Emerging markets and international markets are relatively cheap right now, combined with the fact that we have a weakening dollar, we'd say the opportunity is overseas. It's kind of like being anti-China, but having an iPhone. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Feb 17

25 min 49 sec

What's up! It’s episode 23 of Payne Points of Wealth and Wall Street's gone bananas in a crazy twist. We've got hedge fund managers being taken out by Reddit traders in chat rooms! It goes back to one of our old sayings here at Payne Capital Management “Wall Street’s made up of ordinary people trying to do extraordinary things.” We're going to break this craziness down for you and talk about exactly what happened with the Game Stop trade, what to make of it, and what to do with your portfolio in light of all the market speculation. As an added bonus we're going to talk about Bob's renovation. We know you care about it, his house in Florida, but wait until you hear how that relates to your financial plan. Let's hop to it!    You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... This Game Stop thing… Reddit vs The Hedge Fund [1:13] Scarcity of capital overabundance of capital [5:02] Buy the stock not the story [7:22] The Tipping Point [11:13] Diversified opinions do not equal a diversified portfolio [12:09] Is your investment strategy in line with your goals? [18:10] Hidden Facts of Finance [23:05] Are you buying the stock or the story? You're hearing about innovation. Innovation is going to change the world. It's already happening, but you're paying up for those earnings. It's what happened in ‘99 and ‘00 when you had these companies selling exorbitant PE ratios. They were selling at ridiculous valuations, like Cisco at 200 times its earnings. The story was right, everything that the tech companies promised in ‘99 came true, but not for 10 or 15 years. Meanwhile, the stocks didn't do anything but go down.  Tesla has this huge opportunity and it's probably 100% correct that we're all going to be driving electric vehicles, eventually. They're probably going to corner the market in batteries and they'll have all these other great services that complement their core business. But the point is, it's all being priced in today.  This week on the tipping point: Renovating your financial plans Doing any type of renovation is expensive and you've got to be careful that you get the best discounts you can while still getting quality work. If you hire 10 contractors to do 10 different jobs, then you're paying 10 different people a retail price. It’s wiser to get one contractor who gives you a wholesale price on all 10 jobs and you save on the overall cost and only have to deal with one person. Saves you time. Saves you money. It's no different when it comes to working with one financial advisor rather than working with several different advisors.  You have your assets spread around because you think you don't want to have all of your eggs in one basket. However, you’re paying fees to everyone. You are a small client with 10 different advisors so you're not getting the overall discount that you would as a larger client with one advisor. Not only that but each of those advisors is bound to have some overlap so while you're not’ putting all of your eggs in one basket you are putting the same eggs in several baskets.  This week’s hidden facts of finance Apple reported a record $111 billion in revenue this past quarter! Up 21% from a year ago. Apple now generates $50 million in sales EVERY. SINGLE. HOUR. Bob met Steve Jobs way back in the ’80s after he had just been fired by Apple and he was working for NeXT. Just goes to show you how smart these management teams are. They got rid of the guy who was responsible for creating the first trillion-dollar capitalization company. So $111 billion in one quarter is a record quarter, it’s the first time anybody's done a hundred billion dollars in one quarter. EVER. Check out the episode for more hidden facts of finance!  See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Feb 10

28 min 4 sec

It's episode 23 of Payne Points of Wealth and there are mounds of money creating mounds of speculation in the stock market. As we speak, there's literally $4.3 trillion sitting in cash because the government prints so much money. Not surprisingly, a lot of that money is finding its way into the stock market and creating rampant speculation. So the question is, are we in a bubble? How do you invest your money today to get a good return over the next five to 10 years? We're going to address that.  With the pandemic starting last year did you push your financial planning to the sidelines? Fair enough. Well, it’s a new year and hopefully, you've got a new perspective on life. So we're going to talk about how to get your financial life in order and get it in gear in 2021! It's going to be another great episode. Check it out!   You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Why we think bubbles are forming [1:16] Is rampant stock speculation leading to a burst? [2:43] Why it’s important to have an IPS [6:32] The Tipping Point [9:12] Tax legislation that may have been overlooked [10:56] Have you scheduled your annual financial physical? [14:47] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:09] Risk is something recognized in hindsight, but there are signs along the way There is all this money finding its way into the market. The scariest thing about it is that it’s not going into the places we are advising, like a diversified risk-adjusted portfolio. It’s going into things like Bitcoin, SPACs, and new IPO companies with no earnings. The “sexy” stocks. These are people looking for a quick buck, not long-term investors. Stock speculation is all around us and you just don’t know when the bubble is going to burst.  A half-trillion dollars worth of options on individual stocks traded last week alone! The highest single-day level in the history of the options market, that goes all the way back to the early ’70s. We also had the lowest amount of bearish bets, or puts, being bought in the history of the stock market. So you have the lowest level in years on people being bearish and the highest level in years of people being bullish. Conventional wisdom tells you to be bullish because everybody else is, but you may find that there is very little wisdom in conventional wisdom. Listen to the episode for more on the signs to look for! This week on the tipping point: Overlooked tax legislation There were a lot of rules and regulations that changed last year with the SECURE Act that we might've forgotten about once the pandemic hit. All this fantastic new tax legislation that you could use with your portfolio where all of us got a break on our required minimum distribution from retirement plans. They waived it for everybody. They also moved the required age up from 70 to 72. That's two more years of compounding and two more years of not having to take 20% of your distribution and give it to the IRS. That one piece of legislation is going to help everybody secure their retirement! There’s more to this week’s Tipping Point so be sure to listen! This week’s hidden facts of finance Japan was one of the biggest stock markets in the world for a time in the late eighties, making up 45% of the global market capitalization. Japan only makes up 8% of that total now. It was a wild ride back in those late ’80s. During the Trump presidency, the S&P 500 annualized 13.9% a year, which is only slightly higher than when Obama was president at 13.1% a year. So the market was almost identical under both of their tenures. Just goes to show that businesses don’t care who is in office, they are just in it to make money! Nearly 87.5 of US GDP is generated by the private sector outside the government's direct reach. Further demand for US stocks and goods US firms produce is fully global. Almost 40% of US firm's revenue stems from outside the US. Mitigating American political influence. In a global economy, Capitol Hill doesn’t have as much influence as you’d think. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com  Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Feb 3

24 min 2 sec

Welcome to episode 22 of Payne Points of Wealth. As always, there's a lot going on and we’ve got a lot to say. Here we are nearly a year into a pandemic. There’s a vaccine but distribution is not off to a smooth start. We're looking at another stimulus bill for $1.9 trillion after passing one for $900 billion a month ago! Companies and consumers are sitting on more cash than ever. How do you play this trend? Should you diversify your money? Are we in a stock market bubble? Should you go to cash? We're going to address all those issues on today's Payne Points of Wealth. Don’t miss out!  You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Are we about to have a repeat of the roaring 20’s [2:28] New levels of productivity and efficiency that we think are here to stay [4:29] Baggin on bitcoin [6:58] The Tipping Point [9:38] You can’t double dribble when it comes to Social Security [13:11] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:03] A productivity wave that’s probably here to stay People like Chris and others in our company are finding that by not commuting and simply working home everybody's saving large amounts of time. That translates to more hours that they are able to put into their work. Better for them, better for the company. Chris says “I'm able to reach out to more people. I’m only seeing clients virtually and because of that, I'm able to connect with way more clients and more frequently. I'm saving a lot of time and even have more free time for myself.”  Look at Zoom, they went from 10 million users to 300 million users in less than a year. It was like the entire population of the US joined up! Think of all those meetings you used to have to attend in person that you may never have to do in person again. These productivity gains are probably here to stay coupled with the fact that companies have been cutting costs, now you've got liquidity along with efficiency. It’s a huge wave that's going to drive this economy for the next couple of years. This week on the tipping point: Life’s shot clock is always ticking on retirement You have a limited amount of time on this earth. Nobody escapes alive. It's not just about financial planning, it's about depending on and having a solid financial strategy. You have to have a strategy to be able to take advantage of the financial markets. Maybe another year's gone by and you were reluctant to finally sit down and put together a game plan. You put off figuring out what you spend on an annual basis, how much you should save, and didn’t start looking at how your money is or should be invested?  We all kind of gave ourselves a pass last year because it was a train wreck of a year full of uncertainty, but meanwhile, the economy is recovering. The market had a fantastic year and now you're another year behind. The window gets smaller and smaller every time you delay. Not only are you missing all this opportunity, but you're getting further behind by not putting a game plan in place. Every single day, the clock is ticking on that. It’s not too late to start now, and it’s always better than starting later! Go get to work! This week’s hidden facts of finance An estimated 2.4 million new homes are needed every single year, while only 1.6 million are being constructed. It sounds like the housing boom is going to continue. You have the urbanization of America going on and a lot of people are moving out of the cities. They are getting away from the pandemic, getting away from high priced apartments, and buying in the suburbs. Couple that with record-low interest rates— the lowest mortgage rates we've ever seen so if you haven't refinanced, you should— and we think the housing boom will continue and it's going to be a big driver of the economy this year.  Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Jan 27

23 min 6 sec

Welcome to episode 21 of Payne Points of Wealth! We are having a phenomenal start to 2021. Markets are going through the roof, interest rates and oil prices are going up. The “cyclical stocks”— those reopening stocks that we told you about— are starting to move. So the question is... how do you position your portfolio in 2021 to win? We're going to address that. We are also going to talk about some of the big questions that you probably don't have the answers to when it comes to your financial plan and things you need to address to make sure you're on solid footing in the year to come.    You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Tesla: Sell or hold on? [1:38] Are you lucky or are you good? [3:20] What’s time tested, affordable, & pays well? [6:37] The Tipping Point [8:30] F.E.A.R. [9:44] You can’t ignore taxes [14:04] Hidden Facts of Finance [17:24] A fool and his money were lucky to get together in the first place Investing is counter-intuitive. You want to own more of what's going up right now. That's what your brain screams. But the real way to create wealth is to put your dividends, interest, and savings into other asset classes when they are out of favor. For example, small company stock returns come in big at 6% for the first two weeks of 21’. Whoever had the most shares made the most money.  However, when you hit a home run, like with Tesla. How was it that you decided on that investment? What's the next one based on your strategy. You have to ask yourself when hitting a homer in your portfolio, are you lucky or are you smart? The good news is you don’t have to be lucky or smart. You just have to be in! The better news is you can choose to be smart with the winnings and you’ll learn more about that when you check out the episode! This week on the tipping point: Issues to address to build a solid financial plan The acronym for fear— false evidence appearing real— applies here. When the market pulls back, we have this irrational fear that the market is going to drop to zero, so we make irrational decisions. We take our unrealized losses and we make them real rather than focusing on why we're investing in the first place. Which is, of course, our financial goals for the future, whether that's retirement or something else. The reality is if you own an all-weather portfolio, you can weather these crashes pretty well and ignore the noise.  We waste so much time worrying about a market crash. Over the last decade we’ve had clients call saying, “Well, I think this is it. We're finally going to have another great financial crisis.” The irony is we finally did get a market crash last year and it was something nobody could have predicted. We were completely blindsided! Who could have predicted we would have a global pandemic, that the global economy would shut down. NO ONE figured that out. So the idea is, you always want to be prepared for a crash in your portfolio, have that protection in place because when the next crash comes, no one's going to know ahead of time. This week’s hidden facts of finance Since 1948 the S&P 500 index has returned an average of 14% a year when Democrats have controlled Congress and the White House. The S&P is already up over 2% in 2021 so we're already ahead of the game, only 12% to go. Wait a minute. Democrats aren't even in power yet. Why is it going up? Because at the end of the day as long as there is SOMEONE sitting in those chairs in the White House, Congress, and the Senate the stock market is going to go up. At least that’s what history has proved over the last 200 years.  Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Jan 18

22 min 36 sec

Happy New Year on this 20th episode of Payne Points of Wealth. Things are getting interesting. Wall Street all of a sudden has rose-colored glasses. Goldman Sachs came out and was looking for a 15% return this year on the S&P 500 as the world has apparently become more bullish overnight. The questions… Will it be a good year in the stock market or a bad year? How do you allocate your money? Last year was a crazy tumultuous year in the markets, and probably a tumultuous year for your financial plan too. So, we're going to break down what lessons we can learn and we're going to talk about how we can carry those lessons over and apply them to 2021 to make it a great year. Join us! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Goldman Sachs predictions… are they even worth reading? [1:10] FAT MAG doesn’t represent a reopening economy [4:15] Big cap tech is hot right now but will it stay that way? [5:57] The Tipping Point [8:11] What to do when your asset allocation gets out of whack [11:02] The financial Goldilocks of the emergency fund [13:59] The importance of legacy planning [15:24] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:40] FAT MAG or FAT GAM which is your favorite acronym? Ryan is pleased with his creation of an acronym for the S&P’s big 6— Facebook, Apple, Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google— but he can’t seem to settle on an order. What do you think… FAT MAG or GAM?  In any case, you’ve got a lot of money concentrated in a very small pool of stocks. Stocks that don’t exactly represent the economy reopening either. This could potentially lead to an ironic trade where the S&P 500 actually underperforms this year even though the economy is rockin’. It's one of the reasons why you want to be diversified. We are already seeing other sectors like small caps and energy that are outperforming. Check out the episode to learn more! This week on the tipping point: Lessons Learned Staying invested, rebalancing until you don’t have to, optimistic retirement planning, having the right amount in your emergency fund, and the importance of having a legacy plan BEFORE it’s needed are some of the key lessons we took away from 2020. Join us for this episode’s tipping point to hear the meat and potatoes from each of these valuable lessons. They are definitely some you don’t want to miss! This week’s hidden facts of finance An investor who put $10,000 into the S&P 500 index fund at the start of 1980 and missed the market's best five days through the end of August 2020— just 5 days over a 20yr period— would have a return of almost 40% less than an investor that just remained invested. That's insane. The market does that though, it pushes you to the point where you can't take it anymore. You get tired of it going down so your get out until it's done going down and just like that you can miss the BEST days! Check out the episode for more hidden facts! Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Jan 7

23 min 45 sec

In this episode, we’re going to talk about the reopening of the economy and those big mega-cap tech stocks that are now going to be part of the S&P 500. Additionally, we will discuss products Wall Street loves to sell to scam you and what to avoid at all costs so you can create a portfolio that will give you better odds to win long-term and create your wealth. We’ve got a great show for you. Let’s get to it!   You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Money moving from big tech to value stocks [1:30] What is a small-cap value stock? [4:00] The sucker trade of the year [6:44] The Tipping Point [9:04] Can I put my entire net worth into Apple stock? [11:31] Should high yield bonds be in your portfolio? [12:59] Whole life insurance policies [14:31] S&P 500 stocking stuffers [16:39] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:37] The new second richest man in the world [19:35] TV blues [23:09] What does rotation even mean? It’s Wall Street jargon! When we're talking about rotation it means money has been moving out of these big tech names and moving into other stocks like value stocks. Value stocks such as financials or energy stocks. And we talk about the proverbial reopening of the economic trade like money going into cruise stocks, airlines, hotels, or pretty much anything but tech. These small-cap stocks outperform larger companies and they are less expensive and inexpensive stocks outperform expensive ones. Why is it that investors miss the fact that there are all these other great opportunities out there when they're investing money?   This week on the tipping point: This season’s financial stocking stuffers Here are a few financial instruments that you may want to have in your stocking this year...and maybe some you don’t. First up are annuities, which can be very appropriate for some of you but should not be the only thing in your portfolio. They often come with an income stream for life, and who’s not attracted to THOSE words! However, that can come at a cost. All annuities are not all created equal so know what you’re getting before you stuff this into your stocking. Check out the episode for the rest of this story! This week’s hidden facts of finance Airbnb shares more than doubled on their market debut on the NASDAQ stock market two weeks ago, and DoorDash certs, 86% all in its first day of trading. Is this a bubble? Anything that goes up 86% in its first days is more than likely being very overinflated. So we would say yes. The sale of Bob Dylan’s songwriting catalog to universal music publishing group was announced last week, the price wasn't disclosed, but it said it was sold between $300 and $400 million. There may be a lot of people excited to hear those songs sung by someone other than Bob. We’ve got some more facts for you so be sure to tune in to hear them! Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Dec 2020

24 min 50 sec

Fear of losing money has been replaced by FOMO as investors are now plunging into the markets, putting more money into ETFs than we've seen over the last 12 months. With Coronavirus cases on the rise, hospitalizations on the rise, and mortality rates on the rise what's going to happen next? Has the market come too far too fast? Should investors wait for a big dip? We're going to break that down for you. We'll also be talking about getting good financial advice versus getting bad advice. How do you know if you’re working with a true financial professional? Our hope is that after this podcast you’ll have those answers so make sure to tune in! We've got a great show for you! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Are the buy signal wires crossed for average investors? [1:11] The Santa Clause Rally [3:19] Thinking like a corporate CEO [5:46] The Tipping Point [9:33] Examples of naughty vs nice financial advisors [10:04] What an advisor on the nice list looks like [14:07] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:05] Why having a global portfolio now can pay off in the future [21:39] Getting Tesla stock for a premium [24:17]  Is the doom & gloom media striking fear into would-be investors? We had $81 billion pour into the equity market in the month of November alone. That means that 32% of all the money to flow into the market came into play last month. We wonder if the signal to buy for the average investor is the market being at all-time highs. Why didn’t they buy in October when the market was on sale? There's a reason why people are fearful of the market, why they don't like to buy when the market's going up. Because even though they see it's a booming bull market all you see are the headlines that are dire and negative. We get pounded every day with news of COVID deaths rising, the spread of the pandemic, and political drama but there's a lot of good news that's happening it’s just not making the headlines. Hear more when you listen to the episode!  This week on the tipping point: Has your financial advisor been naughty or nice? Example: My financial advisor is very good at talking about all different types of investments. She's a very astute investor. However, I don't see any credentials after her name so she's definitely not a CFP. She doesn't offer any advice on the planning side of my life, only on what to buy and what to sell. Naughty or Nice? This is definitely one that goes on the naughty list. Any advisor that gives investment advice without coming up with some kind of a financial plan is definitely a big no-no.  Example: My advisor says I'm not paying any fees and I don't see any fees coming out of my portfolio. Is this too good to be true? Naughty or Nice? I don't know about the advisor, but this is the naughtiest way you can possibly invest. It’s very likely you’re getting gouged in fees and just don’t realize it. More detail on this in the episode, go check it out! Example: My advisor calls me every quarter checks in on me personally, reviews my portfolio, and proactively discusses financial issues outside the realm of just my investments. For example, she helped me refinance my mortgage this year and I'm now saving $1500 a month. Naughty or Nice? Well, not only is this advisor on the nice list but she probably works for Payne Capital Management! This week’s hidden facts of finance The worst days for the market are usually followed by the best days. Since the 1930s, if an investor sat out the best 10 return days for each decade, their returns would be just 19% compared to 16000% had they just stayed invested. If you need an example of how important it is to stay invested last month small company stocks went up 20% in 30 days. That's two years’ worth of return in basically 10 days. If you need a good example of why you need to be invested, look at what happened last month. November was a great case in point of why market timing is just treacherous. For more on this hidden fact and others check out the episode.  Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Dec 2020

27 min 1 sec

November showed off with one of the best months on record with the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all up over 10%. In fact, the Dow had its best month since 1987. And speaking of big numbers, Tesla is valued at over $537 billion— as much as Warren Buffet's company Berkshire Hathaway— and is the largest company ever to enter the S&P 500. The question becomes, where do you put your money now as the market continues to go higher with the S&P stuffed like a pinata with Mega Cap companies? Can this sustain through the new year? We're going to break it down for you today. We've got a great episode. Let's check it out. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Small Caps making a big splash [1:24] What is true diversification? [2:51] Good news in the global economy [5:14] The Tipping Point [7:43] Smart 2020 tax moves [8:16] Giving $300 to charity [11:10] Hidden Facts of Finance [15:39] Stock ownership stats [17:18] Investment equality [19:24] You can’t win trying to time the Market With an election at the beginning of the month, all the uncertainty, and with a pandemic, who could have predicted that just like that you'd see stocks go up between 10 and 20%. You just can't predict those things ahead of time, and that’s why we always say you can’t time the market.  Let's face it, this stock market, any market, the world markets are the most humbling places in the universe. There are smarter people than us-- smarter people than the analysts who are trying to figure it out--all trying to gain something that can't be gained, something that can't be predicted. It's too complex, and lesser men than economists have tried to beat or predict what's unpredictable and what's unknowable. The only real winners are long-term investors with patience, fortitude, and a plan.  This week on the tipping point I thought we could discuss some of the financial issues we are addressing for our firm's clients before the end of the year. Not that anybody's going to be unhappy to see 2020 in the books; 2021 can't come too soon enough. Unfortunately, going into the new year means it’s time for taxes. You’ll want to make sure you don't pay more in taxes than necessary. There are a lot of smart moves you can make right now to finish up the year, so be sure to check out the episode to learn more. This week’s hidden facts of finance Historically, gold has been the preferred way to hedge against inflation, and the value of gold still dwarfs Bitcoin with above-ground gold reserves worth more than $10 trillion and the Bitcoin is $320 billion; however, gold and Bitcoin aren't great inflation hedges. The best inflation hedge in history has been good old equities. Stocks that pay dividends because dividends are increased, and that increases the value of your investment against the cost of living. We're not talking about Tesla here, for the record, we're talking about a diversified portfolio of stocks to pay dividends. Dividends are the key. Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Dec 2020

22 min 57 sec

We basically have the same story over and over again, pundits are concerned about the second wave of the Coronavirus and as we’re recording this, we have a change of regimen of government, and a new president starting in January. What does that mean for the markets? The concern is abounding and there is record cash, yet the market continues to go higher just as we predicted on this podcast weeks ago. So the BIG question is… where do we go now? That's what we're going to dissect on today’s show! Don’t miss it!   You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Record highs [1:14] Impossible timing [2:47] Economic data -vs- the news [4:44] Handling a downturn [7:01] The Tipping Point [8:59] Fear around investing in the market [10:33] Too much risk [12:40] Millennials aren’t 20 anymore and they’re playing catch up [14:31] Hidden Facts of Finance [17:03] What creative destruction is around the corner? [18:43] Finding a needle in a haystack [20:42] Embracing a history that creates wealth If we know about it— if it's in the press, it's in the price— the market knows about it too, it's not ignoring that. It's the difference between being an informed, educated investor and just waking up every day and making it up as you go. When you look at the historical returns of the market and you look at the history of our economy, it always grows.  If you make a projection of where the S&P, Dow, Russell 2000 or Ethereum Indexes will be in the next 10 years, we'll tell you one thing we know— it's going to be higher. We don't know when it's going to go higher, but it will be higher. It's just a matter of educating yourself on the history of the market. Understanding how the market is always discounting future revenues and future earnings and looking at volatility differently. People shouldn't be afraid of it, they should be embracing it because that's how you create wealth. Interested in hearing more? Check out the episode to see all the brilliant things we have to share!  This week on the tipping point: managing risk Managing risk is one of the most crucial elements of a successful wealth plan. So we thought we’d break down what risk really means to your portfolio. How do you really manage it? Risk is something that's only truly recognized in hindsight. When you think about risk, it's the possibility of something bad happening. No one likes bad things, right? If you're always avoiding something bad then you’re sitting on your hands and inertia causes you to do nothing. But risk does cut both ways so if you're sitting on your hands, in this case, you're sitting in cash. That insidious tax inflation's going to eat away at your purchasing power and you probably won’t be able to retire as early as you’d like. Check out the episode to hear about the flip side of that when you take too much risk! This week’s hidden facts of finance Every week Ryan goes out of his way to make a point that investing in the S&P 500 is not a one-stop-shop when it comes to investing. The detail that a lot of investors are missing is that it's a global economy and China is coming on strong. Right now there are 119 homegrown electrical vehicle companies in China. They have 1.4 billion potential customers that might be buying upcoming Chinese cars over Tesla cars. Just like Yahoo fell victim to a better search technology being developed by a little known startup called Google back in 2000, you never know what kind of creative destruction's around the corner that will change everything. For more fun facts be sure to listen to the show!  Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Dec 2020

23 min 18 sec

We told you that you could see a stock melt-up going into the end of the year, and now we're here. Money's come off the sidelines in droves! Money managers are getting reinvested, and the big question comes: Is this it? Have we gotten the melt-up? We are also going to hit on what you should be doing with your wealth plan right now and how you should be setting that up. We're going to break it down for you, so be sure to check out the episode! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Revenge of the nerds! [1:13] Growth that’s made everything else pale in comparison [3:04] Don’t get tricked into thinking you’re diversified [5:13] The market doesn't care about valuation...until it does [6:08] The Tipping Point [9:05] Knowing what you own and why you own it [10:45] Taking money from your portfolio [12:42] Something more important than just a good stock idea [16:02] Hidden Facts of Finance [17:36] Lending money where you’re guaranteed to lose [19:02] ETFs cross a milestone for the second time ever in 2020 [21:33] Tech’s outperformance has “normal stocks” paling in comparison We’ve made a killing in tech stocks over the last 10 years. Its growth has way outperformed what it does historically. Historically, it’s been normal to average about 10% per year. We've seen 18% per year for the last 10 years even though the rest of the value and small-cap companies have done about average. It's not that these small-cap companies are horrible performers, it’s that growth has been so ridiculous over the last 10 years, it makes everything pale in comparison. This week on the tipping point...knowing what you own and why you own it! Up until the pandemic hit back in March, many people would ask why they own bonds? They don't pay very much. It costs a lot to buy them. However, as the pandemic hit, bonds were the only thing in their portfolio that was profitable, and now you have the ability to take some profits from the bonds and buy back into the market when it's low. A bond is something that is negatively correlated. That just means it goes up and down differently than the rest of your financial assets. For more on this check out the episode! This week’s hidden facts of finance It may surprise you that when a Democrat takes over the presidency from a Republican (which, for the record, we're NOT saying has happened yet) the average cycle return has been 43.6%. What usually shocks everyone to find out is that a market under a Democratic president historically has done better than a market under a Republican president. Just so you don't get too concerned, it doesn't matter if it's a Democrat or Republican because historically the market's always going up as long as SOMEONE is sitting in the oval office! Check out the show for more hidden facts of finance! Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Nov 2020

23 min 37 sec

Today, we're talking about AFTER the election, we’ve talked about the election for the last couple of weeks and we warned you not to let the election get in the way of making good investment decisions. The economy is recovering. And what do you know, the Payne’s were right. The market has been straight up since the election. Well, it's theoretically over, right? We're not 100% sure, but it looks like Biden will be in the White House come January. With elections over and the economy starting to recover the question is... What do you do with your money now? What strategies do you utilize? What should you be looking for? We're also going to talk about other things that can get in the way of good investing and things you need to watch out for in your portfolio to make sure you get on YOUR path to financial independence. Let's hit it. Let's get into it. We've got a great show for you this morning so don’t miss it! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... The economic recovery that’s being missed [2:01] Is it a matter of change or waiting on the rules? [3:42] American’s finding a spend save balance? [5:46] Economist still casting doubt about spending [7:08] The Tipping Point: overconfidence in your ability to manage your portfolio [9:09] The Market is the most humbling place in the Universe! [10:52] The flip side...lack of confidence [13:27] Good investing’s just not sexy [15:48] Growth vs value [17:42] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:47] Cash is trash [22:19] Mind-blowing recovery and the why behind uncertainty  Unemployment today is where economists thought it was going to be at the end of next year. We're there a year ahead of schedule. Historically the stock market makes about 10% after net of inflation you're about 6-7%. In the last two weeks, the market went up almost 14%. So that's like two years’ worth of return in two weeks! How’s that for recovery! Are the political leaders on Capitol Hill smarter than the captains of industry that run our biggest companies? We think companies just sit back and say, okay, what are the roadblocks they're going to create in Washington, DC. They wait until the rules are set so that they can figure out how to maximize profit margins based on their new rules. That's why there's so much uncertainty around elections. It's not a matter of if it’s going to change things. It's a matter of the captains of industry, the companies that you all invest in and that we all own, are waiting to see what the new rules are so they can figure out how to get around them to make the most money for their shareholders and for themselves. This week on the tipping point We've talked about this a lot in the past, but your ego and overconfidence can get in the way of a solid financial plan. We've seen many cases that have led to destruction in people's financial life because their ego and their overconfidence in their abilities to manage a portfolio made them blind to real holes or issues within their financial plan. Today, we will break that down so that our listeners don't make the same mistakes with their portfolios. If anyone can see holes in portfolios, it's the three of us so tune in to get the goods! This week’s hidden facts of finance Vehicle sales have experienced a V-shape recovery, increasing 36% from the 2nd to 3rd quarter of 2020. Auto manufacturing contributes more jobs than any other industry when you take into account all the parts, and suppliers, aftermarket servicers, replacement parts suppliers, and support services for a major auto plant. In hindsight, it's not surprising that car sales went up. Who wants to ride the subway during a pandemic!  We've seen more New York license plates in New Jersey than ever before. People are coming out of the cities. They're buying in the suburbs of New Jersey and the subway doesn't get you there! So car sales are increasing. Not a shock in hindsight, but who could have predicted that last March. It’s definitely one of the reasons why the unemployment numbers have come down so much over the course of the last couple of months. Check out this segment for more hidden facts of finance! Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Nov 2020

25 min 26 sec

We are finally past the election so we can put that worry behind us... and pick up a new one. As the economy continues to open we’ve seen reports of a spike in Coronavirus cases. Reports have come in about countries in Europe, like France and Germany, starting to lockdown again. The uncertainty has shifted to how we are going to keep reopening the economy. However, if you look PAST those headlines of “Europe Shutting Down” you will see that schools are still open, you can still get a haircut, it’s not the kind of lockdowns we faced in March, it’s more like lockdown lite! Listen to the episode for the full story and loads of other great info!   You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... The news in plain sight [0:33] The certainty of uncertainty [1:46] Necessity is the mother of invention [3:23] What’s going to drive stocks higher? [5:12] Dividends are going up! [6:40] The Tipping Point [8:53] How do you get money in the market without being all or nothing? [11:23] Have a trusted advisor to rebalance your portfolio [14:03] Building your Arc before the flood comes [16:16] Hidden Facts of Finance [18:21]   More signs of a recovering economy  Stock dividends are going up. Income's going up. It’s like every company is saying, “Hey, our picture looks good for next year. We're comfortable paying out some of our profits now.” They weren't comfortable with that just a couple of months ago. We think that's a vote for the future! If you're comfortable paying out your profits, that says your future looks pretty good.  A stat we came across recently shows 1.5 million businesses formed in the last quarter. That’s 80% quarter over quarter. That means that as we're coming out of this recession, businesses are getting started. People are looking for opportunities and they're doing it on a huge scale and that has to bode well for the economy next year, and just looking forward to it in general.   This week on the tipping point Trying to pick individual stocks is like trying to pick the winner in a beauty contest. Your definition of beauty doesn't determine who the winner is. You may think that one candidate is better looking or more talented than another candidate but only the judges’ opinions matter. If you're going to pick the winner of a beauty contest you have to figure out what the judge's view of beauty is. Figuring out what the judges think is the same thing as picking stock in the market. It's not about picking good companies, it's about figuring out what the judges— the people that are buying stocks— want and what THEY consider good companies. And you know what, unless you can read people's minds, you might as well just go to the racetrack. Check out this awesome episode to hear more!   This week’s hidden facts of finance US online holiday shopping is expected to grow 33% this year up $189 billion! Amazon plans to hire 100,000 temporary workers for the holidays. That’s a good reminder job growth follows economic growth. Amazon tripled their profits last quarter and based on their conference call, they expect the fourth quarter to be even bigger. It just goes to show, you can never discount the American consumer. The sun rises in the East—mom and American spend. Listen to the segment for more interesting facts!   Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Nov 2020

23 min 38 sec

Maybe it’s time to get into cash, wait this thing out, see what happens. Then when cooler heads prevail make some investment decisions later...what do you think? By the time you listen to this, the election will have taken place but it may not be over. The volatility caused may still be lingering as well. We just hope you aren’t sitting around— in cash— waiting for the perfect time to get back in the game only to miss the biggest melt-up of the decade! We hope you’ve been listening as we’ve told you to stay in so you don’t miss the big move. It can happen in an instant and if you aren’t in when it comes you’ll never make it up! You have to keep the long term goal in sight. Join us this week as we talk about this and more and perhaps have a few (much needed) laughs along the way.  You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Have we been wrong all along? [0:46] Where’s the bigger risk? [2:38] Things people aren’t paying attention to [4:22] Something we hear time & time again [6:22] Investing in next year...today [8:06] 5 days equals 30% of a 50 year period [9:26] The Tipping Point: Now or Later? [10:11] Have your people talk to...YOUR people [12:30] To debt or not to debt [14:28] Are you up to date? [15:56] The perfect estate plan [18:05] Hidden Facts of Finance [19:33] We HAVE been here before and it led us to the roaring ’20s [21:27] Sometimes you don’t see things you aren’t looking for There are some things happening that aren’t getting attention. Everyone is really hot on the Teslas of the world but they aren't talking about things like small caps— which have started to do really well. There many things in different areas in the market that are improving and people aren't paying attention. A lot of people don't realize that China made a new high last week. The focus is on the S&P 500 and there’s a recovery happening around the world that’s being missed. This week on the tipping point When it comes to making decisions on your financial plan, sometimes it's more beneficial to defer action other times it's critical to address something right away. How do you know when to do what? In this episode, we discuss some different financial matters and decide if it's good or bad to put them off.  One example. If you're saving in your retirement accounts— your 401ks or 403B's— you're putting money in pretax, so you are deferring taxes. The problem is eventually when you're 72 you have to start taking it out THEN it becomes what we call a ticking tax time bomb. Those required minimum distributions could potentially push you into a much higher bracket making it a very tax-inefficient portfolio. If you're a younger investor, you might want to look at that Roth 401k option where it's after-tax. The beauty in a Roth 401k, or some other Roth account, is that all that growth is tax-free later. Listen to the episode for more examples!  This week’s hidden facts of finance You’ve probably heard people voice concern about this pandemic because we've never in history had to deal with something like this. However, the fact is we have! We had the Spanish flu in 1918, 1919, & 1920, last checked— there's NO vaccine for the Spanish flu. How did our economy recover then? How did the world recover from the Spanish flu? We don't really know, but we do know it recovered, we know we have been here before. To top that off the 1918 Spanish flu was followed by the roaring ‘20s, one of the greatest economies in the history of the planet! Something to look forward to? We think so! Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris http://PayneCM.com Follow on Twitter Follow on Facebook Follow on LinkedIn Subscribe on YouTube Follow on Instagram Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Nov 2020

26 min 13 sec