Twoje Hobby InVestor

By Łukasz Paszke

Witaj w moim notatniku inwestycji i rozwiązań finansowo-inwestycyjnych, dostępnym publicznie i otwartym na dyskusje. Moja codzienna działalność doradcza w finansach i inwestycjach oraz wymiana w grupie współpracowników generuje dużo informacji i danych, którymi się z Tobą z chęcią podzielę. Mam nadzieję, że pomoże Ci to rozwinąć ciekawe hobby jakim są finanse i inwestycje, i na nim zarabiać, a może w perspektywie stać się profesjonalistą i nawiązać z nami współpracę. Prowadzę bezpłatne doradztwo finansowe dla biznesu i klientów indywidualnych między innymi w tematyce Powiększania Majątku, Zabezpieczenia Ryzyka w Życiu i Biznesie, Ubezpieczenia Życia i Majątku, Oszczędzania, Emerytury, PPK, OFE, IKE, IKZE, TFI, FIO, Kredytów i Leasingu.

Listen to Twoje Hobby InVestor now.

Listen to Twoje Hobby InVestor in full in the Spotify app

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Mój tekst na ten temat z odpowiedzi na Facebook, z powtórzeniami tego co w nagraniach ale i też z dodatkami, niestety po angielsku:

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I investigated recent rally a lot through not 100% reliable stocks exchanges data of different currencies and crypto. I found a cause of the rally not mentioned in the mainstream. I think that the rally was caused by uncertainty of expected Brazil reforms which caused lots of Brazilians to be worried about their historically fragile currency, and ended in large conversions of Real in to Bitcoin. It can be seen in the volume plots as a large increase of share of Brazilian Exchanges in global Bitcoin volumes. It coincidences with positive change in Brazilian courts rollings toward Bitcoin, which helped a lot to make this buying possible. The uncertainty peaked in USD/BRL reaching 4.21. The world followed Brazil in low volume. This made me firm that Bitcoin is indeed a Cyber Gold. In case of currency uncertainty it is high capacity money reserve with high liquidity and fast international transfers with reasonable anonymity and security. In face of trade war and known currency risks like Honk Kong dollar. It can be easily anticipated that end of Honk Kong – US dollar parity will cause next substantial Bitcoin gains. End of Honk Kong – US dollar parity would cause instabilities in other Asian currencies magnifying this effect. Same with hardly imaginable Yuan crash. People in Asia and developing world will queue up to move their money to liquid, high capacity, safe, anonymous and transferable safe heaven. And then bitcoin can reach new highs. And at the top of it we have Halving, the cherry on a dessert.

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Ze znanych mi metod zakupu i posiadania Bitcoin, Fintech Revolut, jest chyba najbardziej godny polecenia, bo daje bezpieczeństwo Europejskiej Licencji Bankowej, przy kosztach transakcji wynoszących obecnie 1.5%.

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Więcej informacji możecie znaleźć w pomocy do bitcoin.

","id":"5dzHONwajECxHmNLa73yS0","images":[{"height":530,"url":"https://i.scdn.co/image/158b7edc1105a2325a8a8e2439e1efc969cd9fb8","width":530},{"height":300,"url":"https://i.scdn.co/image/854bc97fe11ec2e80d14332b4812578442960397","width":300},{"height":64,"url":"https://i.scdn.co/image/03d695cad5471dd77c7fac5f9a4df6a88f91bad9","width":64}],"is_externally_hosted":false,"is_paywall_content":false,"is_playable":true,"language":"en-GB","languages":["en-GB"],"name":"Bitcoin – Cyfrowe złoto? Store of Value?","release_date":"2019-06-18","release_date_precision":"day","type":"episode","uri":"spotify:episode:5dzHONwajECxHmNLa73yS0"},{"audio_preview_url":"https://p.scdn.co/mp3-preview/bf0dbf8f6b66f2e037eef3dc4946c2a3180fd1f0","content_type":"PODCAST_EPISODE","description":"Ciekawa spółka z perspektywami na wzrosty.","duration_ms":237584,"explicit":false,"external_urls":{"spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/episode/6SQp0048zzTmPwlVuLb3Ab"},"href":"https://api.spotify.com/v1/episodes/6SQp0048zzTmPwlVuLb3Ab","html_description":"

Sprostowanie do nagrania, 100 stacji ma być do końca 2020 roku.

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Dodatkowo przy tym kursie co kupowałem (11-12 zł) płacą dość wysoką dywidendę.

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UNT Notowania od TradingView
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\n","id":"6SQp0048zzTmPwlVuLb3Ab","images":[{"height":250,"url":"https://i.scdn.co/image/08bdc4f8f64531b6eebd79e05ffc83b84647999f","width":250},{"height":64,"url":"https://i.scdn.co/image/2b62af2e7be2d12479e4b0c54b7b1c944c4d3232","width":64}],"is_externally_hosted":false,"is_paywall_content":false,"is_playable":true,"language":"en-GB","languages":["en-GB"],"name":"UNIMOT – zakupiony od kilku miesięcy","release_date":"2019-06-19","release_date_precision":"day","type":"episode","uri":"spotify:episode:6SQp0048zzTmPwlVuLb3Ab"},{"audio_preview_url":"https://p.scdn.co/mp3-preview/acce539166027628d5506d1ad0a0c7e9b4c1980b","content_type":"PODCAST_EPISODE","description":"Gdzie i jak kupić najtaniej?","duration_ms":535928,"explicit":false,"external_urls":{"spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/episode/7FUD0MXYlAC3qal28LQccb"},"href":"https://api.spotify.com/v1/episodes/7FUD0MXYlAC3qal28LQccb","html_description":"

Bayer, jako spółkę zagraniczną, można tanio kupić w Degiro (strona po polsku). Degiro jest brokerem europejskim (Holandia) trzymającym środki w niezależnym zewnętrznym funduszu Pieniężnym, co jest stosunkowo bezpieczne. Inne polskie oferty bankowe, charakteryzujące się wyższym bezpieczeństwem, są droższe dla małego inwestora. Degiro posiada bogatą ofertę zagraniczną, w której ma np. kilka giełd azjatyckich w cenach znośnych jak na kieszeń małego inwestora. Azji próżno szukać w ofertach polskich banków, w szczególności dla małego inwestora. Ale bogata oferta Degiro bywa utrudnieniem, bo np. po wpisaniu Bayer w jego wyszukiwarkę odnajdziemy kilkanaście różnych instrumentów z ekspozycją na spółkę, różniących się typem i giełdą na której są notowane, dlatego jest to broker dla inwestorów którzy wiedzą co i z czym robią naciskając przycisk kupuj. Pamiętajcie, że prowizja potrafi się znacznie różnić w zależności od giełdy jaką wybierzecie. Przed ostatecznym potwierdzeniem transakcji dostaniemy informację ile prowizji zapłacimy, wiec można sobie porównać, dlatego łatwo wybrać najtańszą. Dla uniknięcia błędów, obecnie najtaniej można kupić tam Bayer DE000BAY0017 z giełdy we Frankfurcie.

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BAYN Notowania od TradingView
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Ciekawym i dostępnym sposobem na inwestycję w Bitcoin jest spółka BITCOIN GROUP SE (identyfikator DE000A1TNV91) dostępna np. w Degiro lub BOŚ S.A.

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Zmiany zainteresowania Bitcoinem na świecie w ostatnim roku:

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Dodatkowo w tym temacie moje różne wypowiedzi na ten temat z różnych komunikatorów, niestety po angielsku:

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Bitcoin boom-bust cycle is distorted, and it can give us change in bitcoin dynamics, boom might be to early to attract new vanilla opportunity seekers. +10 000 level is enough for miners to prosper after halving. If just current experienced investors trade and there is no vanilla opportunity seekers FOMO, then it is possible for the bitcoin to start to behave like ordinary safe haven commodity, so we should expect a big 3-4 year flag to form of a number of boom-busts ending on about 20 000 ceiling, so this boom could be a second boom which will end falling from about 2000 to 10 000. But if 20 000+ bitcoin ignites FOMO, then can go up much more.

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Historically there is always an end to any successful investment strategy, because everything is in flux and time comes when environment changes, and we must adapt. Usually there are signs of change visible before, but investors are reluctant to see it. This is well described with examples in „Fooled by randomness”. Volatility will definitely continue for a long time regardless of price levels and one can earn on it regardless of price levels :). It is possible that there is 20 000+ level where FOMO is triggered regardless of timing, and this is probably what big holders want. Big holders need massive buying to sell on high volume corrections. Volatility gives opportunity to earn on bets on any level. But stats of bitcoin blockchain shows there is less big holders then it was in the past, and more medium holders, and less small holders. Maybe holders own more then one account for safety reasons? There is also less bitcoin held on exchanges, and this is definitely bullish. And with such thing like bitcoin, it is easy to underestimate market and to be not bullish enough.

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Definitely from the fundamental point of view this price levels are still good for buying in 1 year perspective. Technically we should have 1 more parabolic steepening for the parable to be in time & magnitude scale of the last one. We have hard $10 000 floor to fall, so it is quite good situation if one is a skilled trader capable of bearing psychologically intermittent paper loss.

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Więcej informacji możecie znaleźć w pomocy do bitcoin.

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Kurs BTCUSD od TradingView
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","id":"5P4FBPYt5gBNkssxIAcq1L","images":[{"height":530,"url":"https://i.scdn.co/image/158b7edc1105a2325a8a8e2439e1efc969cd9fb8","width":530},{"height":300,"url":"https://i.scdn.co/image/854bc97fe11ec2e80d14332b4812578442960397","width":300},{"height":64,"url":"https://i.scdn.co/image/03d695cad5471dd77c7fac5f9a4df6a88f91bad9","width":64}],"is_externally_hosted":false,"is_paywall_content":false,"is_playable":true,"language":"en-GB","languages":["en-GB"],"name":"Bitcoin – 25.06.2018","release_date":"2019-06-25","release_date_precision":"day","type":"episode","uri":"spotify:episode:5P4FBPYt5gBNkssxIAcq1L"},{"audio_preview_url":"https://p.scdn.co/mp3-preview/fa9c8ce8eb6064943165cf591e4e5e10434c60e7","content_type":"PODCAST_EPISODE","description":"Ponowne wejście","duration_ms":130247,"explicit":false,"external_urls":{"spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/episode/6jZdpDZGqv5m9MiqR0i4Ji"},"href":"https://api.spotify.com/v1/episodes/6jZdpDZGqv5m9MiqR0i4Ji","html_description":"
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Panel podręcznych informacji i narzędzi do podejmowania decyzji inwestycyjnych dotyczących DATAWALK można znaleźć na DATAWALK – Pomoce

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","id":"6jZdpDZGqv5m9MiqR0i4Ji","images":[{"height":512,"url":"https://i.scdn.co/image/4a02077082611ca8bf4fcb3f70248f527ed4bf75","width":512},{"height":300,"url":"https://i.scdn.co/image/5cff8ffdaceaf640e2c108f9b8227e493cf6164b","width":300},{"height":64,"url":"https://i.scdn.co/image/189fe22ffa4b607298d8086213985bce663288dd","width":64}],"is_externally_hosted":false,"is_paywall_content":false,"is_playable":true,"language":"en-GB","languages":["en-GB"],"name":"DATAWALK – ponowne wejście","release_date":"2019-07-15","release_date_precision":"day","type":"episode","uri":"spotify:episode:6jZdpDZGqv5m9MiqR0i4Ji"},{"audio_preview_url":"https://p.scdn.co/mp3-preview/84f3f454d21f261b10463ba4c54177bf98d64e84","content_type":"PODCAST_EPISODE","description":"Kawa sprzedana i oczekujemy na następny dołek","duration_ms":227788,"explicit":false,"external_urls":{"spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/episode/7xbNG6El3cKoy1ARp19t19"},"href":"https://api.spotify.com/v1/episodes/7xbNG6El3cKoy1ARp19t19","html_description":"
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Pomoce inwestora dla kawy, a w tym istotne poziomy cen, dostępne instrumenty i inne można znaleźć na  Kawa – Pomoce

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","id":"7xbNG6El3cKoy1ARp19t19","images":[{"height":512,"url":"https://i.scdn.co/image/b1d7fa1fcf135a3fca2e8e5f32988f1a5df74ce6","width":512},{"height":300,"url":"https://i.scdn.co/image/0e2cdefb45df0eb632f32b41431732feff290b5e","width":300},{"height":64,"url":"https://i.scdn.co/image/8febcc3747d1955f9dd5b5dd8ed51496d6cede29","width":64}],"is_externally_hosted":false,"is_paywall_content":false,"is_playable":true,"language":"en-GB","languages":["en-GB"],"name":"Kawa sprzedana i oczekujemy na następny dołek","release_date":"2019-07-27","release_date_precision":"day","type":"episode","uri":"spotify:episode:7xbNG6El3cKoy1ARp19t19"},{"audio_preview_url":"https://p.scdn.co/mp3-preview/e8bb59a93f6d915729879e9959992c9f03476785","content_type":"PODCAST_EPISODE","description":"Przyszedł czas na sprzedaż ropy","duration_ms":247771,"explicit":false,"external_urls":{"spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/episode/40IsNxqJOtDJoOEVZY17V7"},"href":"https://api.spotify.com/v1/episodes/40IsNxqJOtDJoOEVZY17V7","html_description":"
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Panel podręcznych informacji i narzędzi do podejmowanie decyzji inwestycyjnych dotyczących ropy naftowej znajduje się tutaj  ROPA – Pomoce.

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","id":"40IsNxqJOtDJoOEVZY17V7","images":[{"height":640,"url":"https://i.scdn.co/image/2ddc18b49467745615b0fb166ca6857fff12a42d","width":640},{"height":300,"url":"https://i.scdn.co/image/6fbaec53fed3a3980200ab75b837cbf9cba6b608","width":300},{"height":64,"url":"https://i.scdn.co/image/0c3034913d9255b0c30c13f29bec49dae83a2894","width":64}],"is_externally_hosted":false,"is_paywall_content":false,"is_playable":true,"language":"en-GB","languages":["en-GB"],"name":"Ropa Naftowa sprzedana","release_date":"2019-08-01","release_date_precision":"day","type":"episode","uri":"spotify:episode:40IsNxqJOtDJoOEVZY17V7"}],"limit":50,"next":null,"offset":0,"previous":null,"total":9},"explicit":false,"external_urls":{"spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/2OZiPwCMcKKXrys54x6DV3"},"href":"https://api.spotify.com/v1/shows/2OZiPwCMcKKXrys54x6DV3","html_description":"","id":"2OZiPwCMcKKXrys54x6DV3","images":[{"height":500,"url":"https://i.scdn.co/image/86d1e64579da1f84580af0fa617323241027f435","width":500},{"height":300,"url":"https://i.scdn.co/image/bc478169f6fdcd2c4a5f5aabbd46307a6cd02cf7","width":300},{"height":64,"url":"https://i.scdn.co/image/a9c8ac6232f9f878f1cb7da663298850bc611403","width":64}],"is_externally_hosted":false,"languages":["pl"],"media_type":"audio","name":"Twoje Hobby InVestor","publisher":"Łukasz Paszke","total_episodes":9,"type":"show","uri":"spotify:show:2OZiPwCMcKKXrys54x6DV3"};