Podzept and Behind the Headlines with Jim Reid - Deutsche Bank Research

Deutsche Bank Research

Podzept is a podcast which addresses the current issues driving the world of economics and finance. Behind the Headlines: In-depth conversations with decision makers. Jim Reid digs deep for insights.

All Episodes

In a new podcast our China Chief Economist Yi Xiong and Luke Templeman from our Thematic Research team discuss China's housing activity, which remains weak, and help to explain the implications for growth in China next year.

Nov 24

13 min 50 sec

Many corporates have penciled in a strong rebound in earnings this year backed by forecasts of robust pent-up demand. Yet, so far there is little evidence of the spending surge that so many expect. Corporates are not wrong to anticipate hefty spending; all the right ingredients are there. Savings jumped due to government stimulus and a lack of spending options. So what’s happening then?

Sep 19

14 min 17 sec

Liam Fitzpatrick, European Head of Metals and Mining Research interviews Anna Krutikov, Glencore's Head of Sustainability. Climate ambition is increasing rapidly at a global level and investors are demanding that large corporates, such as Glencore, align strategies with the goals of the Paris Agreement and take the necessary action on reducing emissions.

Sep 6

20 min 47 sec

In this episode we discuss the corporate response to growing biodiversity concerns, which has been slow. The problem is that companies with higher biodiversity risks can find their stock prices underperform. Customer and political scrutiny are amplifying the situation.

Jun 23

16 min

We interview Daianna Karaian, Founder and CEO of Today Do This, a firm that works with Blue Chip global corporates to help them achieve specific sustainability goals. We address several big questions that corporates have about exactly how to implement sustainability processes.

May 24

33 min 35 sec

We discuss the US economy, in particular what President Biden has done in his first 100 days in office, including the enormous fiscal stimulus package. Is the package politically possible as Washington looks forward to mid-term elections next year?

May 4

16 min 15 sec

We discuss the key trends of digital currencies; which central banks are leading and lagging the race; the different sets of opportunities, or hurdles even, faced by different countries; and what to expect in terms of regulatory framework looking ahead. Katharina Paust-Bokrezion, Head of payments policy, Political Affairs, joins the conversation.

Apr 19

15 min 31 sec

Being ‘asset-light’ has been Wall Street dogma for years. And no wonder. Over the last decade, US stocks with low levels of Property, Plant, and Equipment (PPE) have seen double the stock market returns of high PPE stocks. In Europe, the returns have been triple. But could it all come to an end?

Apr 11

13 min 18 sec

A deep dive into what we are expecting from the Fed and why the market is pricing in a different path than the Fed's guidance.

Mar 31

14 min 50 sec

A year ago, markets were in freefall. The Covid pandemic was still largely in its infancy, but investors were quickly realizing that a massive recession was looming. Fast forward to today and the conversation is very different as we contemplate if growth will run too hot, how high will inflation get and could the Fed fall behind the curve.

Mar 23

15 min 10 sec

Listen to a podcast episode where we discuss the highlights from a recent ESG conference where sustainability leaders and asset managers discussed key ESG topics as part of focused panels and presentations.

Mar 7

12 min 12 sec

This year's National People's Congress (NPC) will start on Friday, March 5, and will last for about 2 weeks. In this podcast we provide a preview of the key policy issues for the NPC where we expect the government will set a floor growth target at 7-7.5% for 2021, leaving sufficient room to pursue its longer-term policy priorities. The 2021 budget will likely roll back about 60% of Covid-19 related stimulus measures. Nevertheless, government spending will likely increase 7% over last year, thanks to a strong fiscal revenue outlook.

Feb 28

15 min 21 sec

Covid-19 disruption to business has reshuffled priorities for CFOs and treasurers. They must address how to: maintain access to liquidity/credit; implement back-up procedures; create visibility to total cash in global locations; determine cash requirements in the short and medium term; and assess current exposures. Astrid Poussel, Global Corporate Coverage, Corporate Bank, joins the conversation.

Jan 27

19 min 55 sec

Nigel Wilson, CEO, Legal & General and Jim discuss how the future is in our own hands and that there are huge opportunities out there in new technologies and strategic investments that can overcome many of the secular negative forces we are all familiar with (debt, demographics, low productivity etc.). However Nigel believes we need to shed our old fashion attitude to the type of assets we invest long-term money into and urges Governments to provide the infrastructure and regulatory regime to make the future as bright as he thinks it can be.

Jan 19

44 min 5 sec

Back in early December most thought the chance of Republicans losing both Georgia Senate run-off seats was pretty low. That has now happened, with a so-called blue sweep upon us. About a week until inauguration, we discuss how we think Biden’s initial 100-day+ plan might look like.

Jan 13

15 min 37 sec

Even prior to the pandemic, there was an inevitable shift to online purchasing. But how do we ensure this widening acceptance of online buying does not backfire on the planet in the form of unsustainable delivery levels? We propose a system to bring all parties in the delivery value chain to the table, and suggest an incentive system that grades rewards with the intention of sending non-urgent deliveries to specific areas on specific days.

Jan 3

9 min 8 sec

As the pandemic has accelerated the digital cash revolution, there are several things companies and policymakers need to do to respond.

Dec 2020

12 min 35 sec

Euan Munro, CEO, Aviva Investors, and Jim discuss what it’s like to run an asset management business and provide returns to clients in a pandemic.

Dec 2020

37 min 54 sec

We look at what to expect from the Biden administration and discuss the implications for the US economic outlook for 2021.

Dec 2020

15 min 46 sec

The pandemic has shown how the ‘haves’ are more resilient than the ‘have-nots’. Much of this is based on the gap between the two groups based on their access to technology. The divide in the US runs deepest along race and location (urban versus rural). To narrow this gap, we lay out our vision to develop an initiative that covers the more than half of households without proper broadband connection and a computer.

Nov 2020

14 min 27 sec

The 2020 election is now less than a week away. While all elections have implications for the economic outlook, the two candidates for this year’s contest have historically divergent views on essentially all important aspects of economic policy. In this podcast, we consider the implications for the economic outlook of the possible combinations of president and Senate.

Oct 2020

15 min 17 sec

The exponential growth of the digital economy is going to leave large chunks of minorities with little or no access to jobs. We conduct a bottom up societal study and it shows that 76% of Blacks and 62% of Hispanics could get shut out or be under-prepared for 86% of jobs in the US by 2045. If this digital racial gap is not addressed, in one generation alone, digitization could render the country’s minorities into an unemployment abyss.

Sep 2020

12 min 16 sec

Henrik and Jim discuss a wide range of issues, from globalisation to low interest rates, and then point out some of the nuances of working from home since the pandemic, and how communication within the business is vitally important now more than ever.

Sep 2020

34 min 31 sec

Stefan and Jim discuss how Continental has been impacted by COVID 19; within the organisation and with external stakeholders across themes like working from home, where the company is now with ESG – the hottest topic pre pandemic ESG – supply chain issues, the relationship between the US and China and how is Tesla disrupting the market.

Sep 2020

28 min 7 sec

The widening generational divide should be a key source of alarm for investors, financial markets and society as a whole. Young people perceive themselves as the losers on issues ranging from housing to climate change to student debt. In turn, this anger is manifesting itself into political outcomes, with elections around the world increasingly fought along generational lines.

Sep 2020

13 min 29 sec

As long as they are covered by salary protection schemes, those on low incomes have seen their paycheque relatively more insulated than those on higher incomes. Other redistributionist measures also mean the rich are likely to face a higher burden, thus reducing inequality.

Jul 2020

9 min 50 sec

The US-China Tech Cold War remains one of the biggest tail risks of the current market rally. We have conducted a top-down analysis to quantify the impact of a complete decoupling. Our study on stock price correlations with the DB Tech Cold War Index yields a surprising and counter-intuitive finding, Semiconductors. Listen to a new podcast with Apjit Walia Tech Strategist and Matthew Barnard, Head of Company Research US.

Jul 2020

14 min 12 sec

Children, interruptions, loneliness, and an unsuitable workplace has left many frustrated as they attempt to work from home. We do the sums to see if businesses should subsidise their employees’ housing costs so they can save on expensive office space.

Jul 2020

16 min 11 sec

We are going through a tremendous volatile market with investors looking for stable returns. According to a few news outlets some of the quant funds have performed less well. Caio Natividade, Head of QIS Research and Sorin Ionescu, Head of QIS Structuring share their insights on common misconceptions.

Jul 2020

12 min 53 sec

A confluence of factors - a pandemic, high education costs, environmental concerns, and new instructional technology - could rapidly increase the popularity of online education. Moreover, because online platforms transcend political boundaries, top universities could gain more market share on a global level, leading to the disappearance of many lesser-known schools.

Jul 2020

7 min 30 sec

The unique nature of the pandemic shock and the wide uncertainty surrounding it, meant there was no one historical playbook that fit easily. So inevitably there were going to be some surprises. In the event, there have been many.

Jun 2020

15 min 49 sec

Machine learning, with all of their processing power, they’re able to more quickly highlight or find patterns in big data that would have otherwise been missed by human beings. Machine learning is a tool that can be used to enhance humans’ abilities to solve problems and make informed inferences on a wide range of problems, much wider than financial services for example helping diagnose diseases to coming up with solutions for global climate change.

Jun 2020

14 min 37 sec

Online food ordering (both grocery delivery and meal kits) was already seeing steady growth before covid-19. Since the outbreak, it has taken off. While some people may revert back to their old habits when the pandemic recedes, many have been introduced to the concept and will continue to enjoy the benefits.

Jun 2020

9 min 1 sec

While history shows us that it can take over two years for an aviation demand shock to return to normal, many people now forecast a permanent drop in travel, particularly for business. We argue business and personal travel will remain, however, the way people book will change the transport industry.

Jun 2020

12 min 54 sec

With European football leagues on hold, clubs are facing severe losses that will likely continue over into next season. The transfer market has also been highly disrupted. Not all clubs have shareholders with deep pockets and so there is likely to be a widening of inequality between the big and small clubs.

May 2020

8 min 58 sec

One of the lead features in the latest Konzept edition concerns whether the Coronavirus will end up being deflationary or inflationary. We have Robin Winkler, FX Strategist in the red corner fighting for his deflationary views and Oliver Harvey, Macro Strategist in the blue corner countering with his inflationary views. Jim Reid, Global Head of Fundamental Credit Strategy and Thematic Research moderates.

May 2020

43 min 56 sec

After shrugging off a historic plunge in April employment, market participants will likely need to digest further record-setting monthly declines in core CPI inflation as well as April retail sales and industrial production. However, with financial markets seemingly numb to the bad data news, Fed Chair Powell's appearance on Wednesday may overshadow what is likely to be epic weakness in this week's economic data. Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist shares his insights.

May 2020

14 min 22 sec

It is now evident that the US economy is in the midst of the most severe contraction in the post-World War II era, one which could produce a record quarterly contraction in output in the second quarter and an unemployment rate above 17% in April. The path beyond the Q2 contraction is, however, remarkably uncertain. Matthew Luzzetti, Chief Economist, US explains.

May 2020

13 min 58 sec

Even with the best strikers in the world on your team, you wouldn’t play without a goalkeeper – so why run a risk asset portfolio without an effective defensive overlay? Caio Natividade, Head of QIS Research and Sorin Ionescu, Head of QIS Structuring explain.

Apr 2020

16 min 33 sec

The US economy is experiencing unprecedented disruptions that have led to a sudden stop in activity. The result will be the most dramatic decline in GDP and sharpest rise in unemployment in the post-World War II period. Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist shares his insights.

Apr 2020

14 min 47 sec

There is no such thing as a free market anymore. All developed central banks have cut rates to zero and buying trillions of assets. Inflation is very low. A global liquidity trap may be in the making. In a world of international yield curve control and administered asset prices, what does that mean for FX?

Apr 2020

15 min 26 sec

We’ve witnessed an immense human tragedy as the covid-19 virus has spread around the globe. Amidst the awful numbers of people who have succumbed to the disease, we’re also now witnessing an incredibly painful economic downturn. In a new podcast episode where we look at the data, ten million Americans have made jobless claims over the last two weeks. We’re now seeing equally staggering figures come out of many other countries as economies are simply shut down.

Apr 2020

13 min 34 sec

Torsten Slok, Chief Economist, DBSI, provides his view on the latest US and global forecast, along with his insights on the monetary responses from the Federal Reserve.

Mar 2020

15 min 27 sec

Growth in luxury has been primarily driven by brand heat and newness, however millennials and Gen Z are increasingly demanding more quality and sustainability. No brand has yet achieved real sustainability. Those brands that will be able to incorporate newness with sustainability are the likely winners.

Mar 2020

14 min 5 sec

There were few asset classes that saw quite the stratospheric growth in 2019 like the green bond market. How is 2020 shaping up? Craig Nicol, Credit Research Analyst, shares his insights.

Feb 2020

13 min 46 sec

Torsten Slok, Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank Securities, shares key highlights from his Monthly Chart Book, which details some of the most important macro and economic drivers impacting markets today.

Feb 2020

14 min 48 sec

Brexit talks are only moving onto the next phase, the UK and EU must agree the terms of a future economic relationship by the end of the status quo transition period on December 31st 2020. The next chapter in talks is expectant to generate less in the way of intraday excitement for investors, their outcome is more important for the UK's future growth prospects and asset valuations.

Feb 2020

13 min 52 sec

Marion Laboure, analyst in the Thematic Research team, discusses the 2020 Outlook in this latest Podzept episode. With some major downside risks to the global economy having been avoided, and market concerns over a possible recession diminishing Laboure believes that global growth will gain speed over the coming months and hit 3.3% this year, up from 3.1% in 2019.

Jan 2020

11 min 12 sec

Until now, cryptocurrencies have been additions, rather than substitutes, to the global inventory of money. Over the next decade, this may change. Overcoming regulatory hurdles will broaden their appeal and raise the potential to eventually replace cash.

Jan 2020

13 min 1 sec

Torsten Slok, Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank Securities, shares key highlights from his Monthly Chart Book, which details some of the most important macro and economic drivers impacting markets today.

Dec 2019

14 min 4 sec